Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th

[wolfie09]

12z high res Canadian

[rochesterdave]

It looks almost identical to 12z. Hoped for that tick. No tick for you. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

It looks almost identical to 12z. Hoped for that tick. No tick for you. 

Thats because it is the 12z

[wolfie09]

Yeah still a couple hours till the 18z run..

[rochesterdave]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Thats because it is the 12z

I was referring to the NAM. 

[PerintonMan]

16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

You gotta love it. We do NOT see this very often. 

969. Nice.

[wolfie09]

[BuffaloWeather]

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Starting to buy those Nam runs and cutting back totals bit by bit over the eastern area.

[vortmax]

Seems they are buying the NAM. 

[wolfie09]

New forecast still shows all snow..

Sunday Night

Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

M.L.King Day

Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Monday Night

Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

[PerintonMan]

Not liking how it's bringing the 12" line back into Monroe County.

The NAM run was hideous and shows the potential for a really ugly sleet to dry slot solution with the monster band just to our NW.

I feel like the two outcomes IMBY are:

A. ticks a little east, stay all snow, mostly in the monster band + some backside lake-enhancement --> 16"

B. ticks a little west, front end thump, then taint, then mostly dry slot + back end fizzles out --> slow and steady 4-6"

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where do you find the map?

[tim123]

3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Seems they are buying the NAM. 

All models have much less snow east of wayne county. 

[rochesterdave]

6 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Seems they are buying the NAM. 

Yep. They are. 

[CNY_WX]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

New forecast still shows all snow..

Sunday Night

Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

M.L.King Day

Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Monday Night

Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Is that for Pulaski?

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where do you find the map?

https://www.weather.gov/buf/winter

If you keep clicking it will show a bunch of maps.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Not liking how it's bringing the 12" line back into Monroe County.

The NAM run was hideous and shows the potential for a really ugly sleet to dry slot solution with the monster band just to our NW.

I feel like the two outcomes IMBY are:

A. ticks a little east, stay all snow, mostly in the monster band + some backside lake-enhancement --> 16"

B. ticks a little west, front end thump, then taint, then mostly dry slot + back end fizzles out --> slow and steady 4-6"

The NAM is a shit model as is the ARW. They both are extreme outliers in opposite directions and should both be tossed until theres supports.

[TugHillMatt]

BGM has a good updated discussion and explains why they are waiting on warnings. Probably waiting to see if Nams finally surrender, or if it leads the way with other models at 0Z

[wolfie09]

Yeah was just posting it lol

The synoptic pattern remains complex Sunday and Monday as a
cutoff low over the Southeast US interacts with an incoming
upper short wave over the Upper Midwest that will quickly drop
southeast across the Ohio Valley Sunday morning. The interaction
of these two features will be the determining factor in the
track of the associated surface low and the entire system. The
cutoff low is expected to fold back into the short wave and pull
it slightly to the west. A warm front on the northern side of
the system will usher in the initial round of precipitation with
the air mass cold enough for all snow on the front end with
temperatures starting out in the 20s Sunday evening. Strong
forcing aloft and a weak band of mid level f-gen on the nwrn
side of the low will combine with a strong influx of moisture
from the Atlantic to produce a period of steady snow before
midnight. Could see an initial 2 to 5 inches with this first
round.

This initial band of snow is expected to become oriented sw-ne
across wrn NY and impact portions of the central southern tier and
the wrn Finger Lakes into the overnight hours. An additional 2
to 4 inches is possible overnight. At the same time, a nose of
warm air is expected to push in from the southeast, which would
act to change the snow over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain,
and eventually all rain for parts of the Wyoming Valley and the
lower elevations of ne PA...for at least a brief period of
time.

The challenge with this storm system is the duration, intensity
and location of this warm nose. There has recently been some
concern that the warm wedge will work farther to the west than
previously anticipated. The guidance has calmed down in that
area (except for a few models), and is keeping the push of the
warm air mainly east of Binghamton. The uncertainty with this
warm nose is what has lead to the continuation of the Winter
Storm Watch for most of the area. If this nose stays to the east
and is relatively fleeting, then the impacts from ice
(including keeping snow totals down) will be limited. However,
if this warm wedge is stronger and lasts longer than anticipated
there could be a lot less snow and more mix of sleet and
freezing rain. We are hoping one more round of deterministic
model guidance will allow for slightly better agreement about
these thermal profiles before going Warning or Advisory.

Another feature with this system as it evolves early Monday
morning will be the development of a dry slot over ne PA and
into the I-81 corridor, combined with the formation of a precip
shadow that will occur due to downsloping from the strong
southeast winds off the Catskills and Poconos. This feature
will likely limit the amount of precipitation during the Monday
morning hours. Total snow amounts will range from 9 to 12 inches
in the Warning area. There is greater uncertainty in the Watch
area where 5 to 9 inches is possible. The lower end of the
spectrum will be impacted by the addition of mixed
precipitation.

The strong southeast winds will need to be watched closely as
well, with the combination of the icy conditions and winds up to
40 mph possibly causing scattered power outages.

The system wraps up and begins to lift n/newd out of the area during
the day Monday with precipitation ending south to north through the
afternoon. As this occurs though, the cold air will wrap around the
backside across nrn PA into s-central NY and change the mixed
precipitation back over to all snow by the late afternoon. There
will also be a shift of the winds to the w/nw and an increase as
well up to 30 to 40 mph. Blowing and drifting snow will be likely,
especially in the areas that see mostly snow with this system.

[BuffaloWeather]

Observation thread!

 

[vortmax]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Observation thread!

 

Make your forecast your first post on the new thread! 

[wolfie09]

8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Is that for Pulaski?

Yes sir

[TugHillMatt]

BUF's forecast for North Cayuga county is waaaay more wintry than BGM's for Onondaga county for the entire next week. Funny to see forecaster observations, opinions, and biases.

[tim123]

Icon looks like a carbon copy of euro

[vortmax]

And now I'm paranoid cuz I don't care if all the other models stay put I just want to see the NAM move east. 

[96blizz]

RGEM looks awesome!

 

[96blizz]

After all the lake effect. 

 

[wolfie09]

Yeah I'm not buying it lol Rgem has bombed on a couple synoptic events this year already.. Pretty much doesn't have a dry slot which is why I get close 2 feet verbatim lol

[Gorizer]

1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

116 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation are potentially
  possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 12 inches
  and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could
  gust to 40 to 50 mph over the higher terrain.

* WHERE...Southern Vermont, southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley,
  eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and the Lake George northern
  Saratoga Region and Schoharie Valley in eastern New York and
  the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

 

AKA we don't know if the NAM or Euro is right. 

Also representing the Eastern part of the thread here.   At about 1,500 ft elevation in western Schenectady County, I typically fall into the "Helderbergs" part of the forecast, and high enough to avoid any easterlies shadowing.   Just worried about the taint at this point that could really cut that top end of the range down.