rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I love how we have different crews in here all kinda hoping for different outcomes. We got the eastern boys, the Syracuse/ Tuggies, the Buf and ski crew. Not sure where Skaneatles fits in? In Rochester we have Tim, Delta, Perinton, Me, Vort and I’m sure I’m missing someone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Are you at tailgate? We should meet up for a drink! I’m a weenie, my wife and I are tailgating at her parents indoors, heading to the game around 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The drinking never stops in BUF. Remember the Buffalo snow storm when the Mayor literally told his people to “go get a six pack and enjoy the storm”? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The drinking never stops in BUF. #truth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I love how we have different crews in here all kinda hoping for different outcomes. We got the eastern boys, the Syracuse/ Tuggies, the Buf and ski crew. Not sure where Skaneatles fits in? In Rochester we have Tim, Delta, Perinton, Me, Vort and I’m sure I’m missing someone? Think there is a poster from Caledonia and batavia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, Syrmax said: @TugHillMatt, myself and @CNY_WX need every single tick east we can get to mininize the dryslot impact. And I need a tic and a toc.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: I love how we have different crews in here all kinda hoping for different outcomes. We got the eastern boys, the Syracuse/ Tuggies, the Buf and ski crew. Not sure where Skaneatles fits in? In Rochester we have Tim, Delta, Perinton, Me, Vort and I’m sure I’m missing someone? Missing me in Caledonia lol. North Livingston a very snow starved area! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Always love having the Navy and JMA on our side against the world. And RAP..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I have not felt this good about a track in a long time. Dare I say sub 12" will almost feel like a bust? Maybe not a complete bust. But a letdown for sure... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What a crazy 6 hour QPF forecast from KBUF 1-7 AM, who is sleeping tomorrow night? I'll be driving around taking video all night, less traffic will be good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: What a crazy 6 hour QPF forecast from KBUF It's probably underdone lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 According to the EC, there will be 25-30kt winds over the lake hitting the shore for 12hrs+. Does this get taken into consideration for blizzard conditions for the South Shore ctys? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's probably underdone lol Most of that is in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: And I need a tic and a toc.... Yeah we may all need some back end turbo boost from L.O. to get >8". Reasonably confident of that IMBY but my over/under is 8" for here. Really leery of the warm nose overperforming after an initial 4-6" here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: According to the EC, there will be 25-30kt winds over the lake hitting the shore for 12hrs+. Does this get taken into consideration for blizzard conditions for the South Shore ctys? There probably will be a blizzard right at the lakeshore. I've seen that in Oswego when I lived there too but from what I've seen BUF wouldn't issue a blizzard warning unless the conditions were more widespread than that. This storm doesn't have really cold air and high pressure on its nw flank to get really strong winds during the heaviest snowfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Monday evening on the backside.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 116 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation are potentially possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust to 40 to 50 mph over the higher terrain. * WHERE...Southern Vermont, southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and the Lake George northern Saratoga Region and Schoharie Valley in eastern New York and the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. AKA we don't know if the NAM or Euro is right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Missing me in Caledonia lol. North Livingston a very snow starved area! Sorry Geez! We gotta watch that dry slot and the sleet just east of you. But i think you do look good for a solid foot or so! you might even get into some enhancement on the back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Eps Monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The times I’ve seen blizzard flags hoisted in WNY the LP’s all took tracks and had depths just like this. Like OSU said, the one missing factor is a big HP centered N or NW of us. But I think we’ll see blizzard like conditions for a bit along the lake shore. It’s a holiday so some of the disruptions might be mitigated. I wouldn’t put it out of the range of possibilities. We are still 36 hours out and we’ve all seen storms go to crap in that window but this one looks loaded and cocked. Like BufWX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Eps Monday morning I guess that spead is the transfer to convection? Any models hold a single LP the entire run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Eps Monday morning Pretty solid eastern camp. I know which one you’ll be hoping on. This is a big storm so even the eastern ones still get WNY. I think. The far NW ones were the ones that scare me a little bit. You got the next frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: I guess that spead is the transfer to convection? Any models hold a single LP the entire run? Yeah, I’d guess its that double barrel thing we’ve been seeing. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pretty solid eastern camp. I know which one you’ll be hoping on. This is a big storm so even the eastern ones still get WNY. I think. The far NW ones were the ones that scare me a little bit. You got the next frame? Unfortunately not, stole it from another board lol I'll take the middle zone right over NJ/SE NY please.. Granted that would probably screw the buffalo crew so maybe a blend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Euro ensemble mean. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 New wording on warnings. Basically 10 to 20 across western ny less in South east areas more in west. Gusts to 40 mph. This only is until 7 pm Monday. So doesnt include any lake snow after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I love how we have different crews in here all kinda hoping for different outcomes. We got the eastern boys, the Syracuse/ Tuggies, the Buf and ski crew. Not sure where Skaneatles fits in? In Rochester we have Tim, Delta, Perinton, Me, Vort and I’m sure I’m missing someone? I think me (Skaneateles) is more the Syracuse crew. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yo Matt I didn't photo shop this one.. Lol.. Obviously HRRR not useful here, banding is pretty far east verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 52 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Always love having the Navy and JMA on our side against the world. Don't forget our friend the Rap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yo Matt I didn't photo shop this one.. Lol.. Obviously HRRR not useful here, banding is pretty far east verbatim.. Does f*cking Onondaga county have to be covered in pink splotches on every model? Sheesh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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