vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lot's of 'glitches' with this one. That phase has really been screwing with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: From what I can see mid levels look fine, not sure what PW problem is lol Yeah, Rochester is missing an inch of qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: What about hawt? Just any word that doesn't have the ability to trigger meltopia when we're dissecting temperatures within a storm... Maybe instead of h** we say something like, "Check out that death band, guys!" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenetic forcing across western NY looks to be very impressive, particularly associated with the developing and pivoting deformation zone. Here is a snapshot of the 700 mb frontogenesis when the snowfall rates look to be peaking (via the 12z GFS). 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Kind of amazing we're getting a decent lake response with such dry air. 700RH is like 10%. Wondering if this bodes well for post-storm LE with a 20-30% cyclonic flow on Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Hard to see the 850’s costing us that much snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, MGorse said: The 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenetic forcing across western NY looks to be very impressive, particularly associated with the developing and pivoting deformation zone. Here is a snapshot of the 700 mb frontogenesis when the snowfall rates look to be peaking (via the 12z GFS). Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Must happen between frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Thundersnow? You really really want to some thunder snow, eh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Kind of amazing we're getting a decent lake response with such dry air. 700RH is like 10%. Wondering if this bodes well for post-storm LE with a 20-30% cyclonic flow on Tuesday. Dry air be dammed when you got a ne flow and 45 degree lake temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: You really really want to some thunder snow, eh? Yes I want it all 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Yes I want it all And I want it now. Go big or stay home Tim, that's what we love about you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Side note... @weatherbo, nice to see you back after your "timeout." I was actually viewing from a distance when that whole Convo went down on OT. You were duped. Don't get involved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Yes I want it all Me too. Been 5 years since Rochester had 12” inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here’s one for the downstate weenies. I don’t give it much chanceI'd rather not get a ton of snow at home in the Hudson Valley and get like a foot plus on Tug Hill towards like the Eastern side to be honest since I won't be home anywaySent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Beautiful shot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: And I want it now. Go big or stay home Tim, that's what we love about you! Yep! We just need to determine a mathematical formula to convert Tim:s snow amounts to reality... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: At some point we gotta talk about how bad GEFS were. They constantly played catch-up with the op. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 “Greater than 12” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: Thundersnow? I am not seeing much evidence in the forecast soundings of elevated instability. The 12z NAM though hints at it for a time at ROC early Monday morning, but probably not enough. Given the dynamics though, it would not be shocking if there are a few lightning flashes associated with the peaking deformation band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 65% for over a foot 25%for 18”+ per NWS statistical page for ROC. Similar for BUF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Solid forecast as it stands now.. Looks like they are going 6"-10" Sunday night for Kbuf-Kroc.. Still have yet to hit zero (-3°), forecast high is 4°.. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Monday Night Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: At some point we gotta talk about how bad GEFS were. They constantly played catch-up with the op. We take. Even if they're late to the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 65% for over a foot 25%for 18”+ per NWS statistical page for ROC. Similar for BUF I believe the 10%-90% range for ROC was like 8-20", with a median of 15". That's extraordinary for ROC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What's the difference between the EC and EC high res? The 'regular' EC 12Z looks to keep the same LP track, but 2mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Who's got the SREF plumes for this bad boy? Are we in range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Who's got the SREF plumes for this bad boy? Are we in range? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: What's the difference between the EC and EC high res? The 'regular' EC 12Z looks to keep the same LP track, but 2mb stronger. New nam isn't out yet. The one on pivitol is from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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