wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Icon 10-1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z GFS running. Let's see if it shifts SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Good morning guys. -12 here this morning. Nice to see a mantle of white after the winter we’ve had near Philly. Looking like a snow-mix-backside snow scenario on the Tug. We’ll see how it plays out. Looks fantastic for western NY. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 ICON definitely shifted precip shield east about 30-50 from 00Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:41 PM, Parsley said: Good morning guys. -12 here this morning. Nice to see a mantle of white after the winter we’ve had near Philly. Looking like a snow-mix-backside snow scenario on the Tug. We’ll see how it plays out. Looks fantastic for western NY. Expand Nice! -10 here this morning just to your NW, tonight is expected to be a couple degrees colder.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:43 PM, wolfie09 said: Nice! -10 here this morning just to your NW, tonight is expected to be a couple degrees colder.. Expand Wow. Hoping to take the kids to Osceola Ski Sunday before the storm. Should be much more bearable tomorrow. Honestly, looking forward to the backside snow/wind Monday up this way after the lull/dry slot potential Monday morning. We'll see what shifts occur before the onset of the event. Hopefully nothing too significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12Z GFS is amped and west. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:43 PM, vortmax said: ICON definitely shifted precip shield east about 30-50 from 00Z. Expand *chef's kiss* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:37 PM, wolfie09 said: Icon 10-1 Expand Lock in it looks like those weenie GFS runs Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 -13f and beautiful blue skies here in Ottawa. The Rideau canal is open for skating, all 4.85 miles of it. Have a great day everyone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:48 PM, PerintonMan said: *chef's kiss* Expand GFS looks scary, but still produces: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not bad at all. Looking like a 6-10" deal here(unless the NAM is right). A little underwhelming given the potential but by far biggest event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 With ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lake Ontario always stealing my snow.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:57 PM, wolfie09 said: Lake Ontario always stealing my snow.. Expand They might have 10' drifts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC - just checked, warmest 700 temp around -5C over the airport. Maybe all snow then. Seems a stronger LP is creating some dynamic cooling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:56 PM, tim123 said: With ratios. Expand If I see 24” of snow I will donate a nut to Rochester Dave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:59 PM, vortmax said: I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC. Expand This storm keeps getting deeper so perhaps dynamic cooling is now coming into play on the western side? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:59 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: If I see 24” of snow I will donate a nut to Rochester Dave. Expand You guys are very generous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:59 PM, vortmax said: I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC. Expand Its not really any stronger than previous runs. Just small timing differences in map. Toggle between runs and its essentially the same. Previous run has it near Scranton pa at 983mb this run has it 982 near bmg. So its small timing differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:02 PM, DeltaT13 said: This storm keeps getting deeper so perhaps dynamic cooling is now coming into play on the western side? Expand Yes, I edited my original post. Seem like that's it. Could save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 These algorithms seem a little too keen on mixing on the rdps to me. These soundings look like snow to me. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:59 PM, vortmax said: I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC - just checked, warmest 700 temp around -5C over the airport. Maybe all snow then. Seems a stronger LP is creating some dynamic cooling. Expand Yeah its definitely colder aloft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Reposting after that 12 GFS run for WNY 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Really nice 700 RH with -12 850s on NW flow. Should be some really nice LE before the dry air moves in Tues 12Z. I think there could be some 2'+ lollies on the SS if we stay all snow by that time. Too bad that clipper is way north now. Sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 From what I can see the 925s are the most marginal for CNY, obviously could be some sneaky layers in there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Anyone know what you wanna look for to forecast thundersnow? I think the potential is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:05 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Reposting after that 12 GFS run for WNY Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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