Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th

[vortmax]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Really deep low for latitude.

Anyone want to post the winds? Assuming on the west side they're not blizzard worthy, but the east side should be storm force. 

[rochesterdave]

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

The weaker kicker is key to keeping a cap on this thing. Glad to see this. My guess is we'll see that SE shift we've be talking about. 

Yes. I wish we didn’t still have 36-48 hours. You, Tim and I could be in for a wild ride. Going to be right on that line between deformation and sleet. We don’t have a lot of room for this to inch west. I’m convinced, as I have been, this will be a great one for Rochester. Buffalo to Syracuse still looks good with Syracuse maybe getting the dynamic shit like dryslot and sleet but still plenty of snow. 

[sferic]

Will that snow hole courtesy of a dry slot still encompass Syracuse ?

 

What needs to happen for the dry slot to shift ?

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

Will that snow hole courtesy of a dry slot still encompass Syracuse ?

 

What needs to happen for the dry slot to shift ?

Prayers 

[OSUmetstud]

12 minutes ago, vortmax said:

The weaker kicker is key to keeping a cap on this thing. Glad to see this. My guess is we'll see that SE shift we've be talking about. 

It's a good discussion but I dont like calling that trough a kicker..its actually the reason this thing is getting tugged west and not slamming nyc and new england with snow. 

[96blizz]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Will that snow hole courtesy of a dry slot still encompass Syracuse ?

 

What needs to happen for the dry slot to shift ?

It’s likely unavoidable at this point but the further the low tracks south and east the more likelihood that the dry slot and mixing is limited. 
 

we look to get some fantastic up front and back side snows - of different kinds.

Take a nap during the dry slot!

[wolfie09]

...Southern Appalachians through the Interior Northeast... Days 1-3... A significant to major winter storm is expected to develop today and then lift up the coast through Tuesday morning. The primary low will develop near the Gulf Coast later today before lifting northeast just inland from the coast on Sunday, and then likely lifting west of I-95 Monday into southern Canada. This low will likely deepen rapidly as it ejects northward in response to a favorable and intensifying coupled jet structure and steady height falls/mid-level divergence associated with the closed low. Precipitation will become widespread and heavy as impressive warm and moist advection produces IVT above the 90th percentile, combined with a robust theta-e ridge which will wrap into an intense TROWAL. Pronounced 290K isentropic ascent will aid the deep layer ascent, with local upslope mechanisms further providing lift. Together, this suggests the entire east coast from SC to Maine will experience heavy precipitation, with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain all likely. The guidance has shown a subtle shift westward tonight, likely due to the further south track of the mid-level low pulling the surface wave back inland. At the same time, the preferred high-res guidance of the NAM, which usually better handles surface wedge setups (CAD) like this, is a bit stronger with the cold surface layer. With impressive 850mb LLJ within the WAA spreading inland, this will likely produce a major ice storm across the Piedmont of the Carolinas, where WPC probabilities for 0.25" are above 70%. Some guidance suggests freezing rain accretions could reach 0.75", but accretion efficiency should be quite low due to heavy rain rates, and the WSE and NBM 90th percentiles are both at or below 0.5". Still, significant and damaging ice is likely here. With the further west and subtly warmer solutions tonight, freezing rain is also becoming more of a concern across the Mid-Atlantic and as far north as the Catskills and Litchfield Hills of CT, but WPC probabilities for 0.1" of freezing rain as less than 10%. Northwest of the freezing rain, a large swath of heavy snow is expected from the Southern Appalachians through the Laurel Highlands of PA D1-2. In the terrain, the column will remain cold enough for snow, and as isentropic upglide becomes influenced by upslope ascent, snowfall will likely be prolific despite modest SLRs. WPC probabilities for more than 6 inches are above 70% in this region, with local maxima over 12" likely, highest in the NC mountains. North and west of the terrain, synoptic forcing will be most impressive, and a deformation axis characterized by impressive mid-level fgen and -EPV will produce heavy snowfall rates which may reach 2"/hr. The guidance continues to track slightly west with this axis, but confidence is high in a region of heavy snow and significant accumulations. WPC probabilities for 6+ inches are above 70% D2 in western PA and far western NY, reaching more than 80% into Upstate NY D3. Many locations within this band will likely receive more than 12 inches of snowfall. Further east the forecast is less clear-cut as warm advection/isentropic snow is likely to be significant, at least at onset, but may feature a changeover to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. For the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston, a thump of heavy snow is likely for a few hours at onset, but total snowfall accumulations should be modest, and WPC probabilities for 2+ inches are generally 30-50%. NW of the big cities, heavier snow is likely, especially in the terrain, and WPC probabilities feature a high risk for 4+ inches in a large area from central MD through much of interior New England where locally more than 8 inches is possible in the highest terrain.

[PerintonMan]

24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Jesus. 977 over the Catskills! This could be epic!!! 

Do we get into that deformation band before it's launched into Ottawa?

How reliable is the backside action with that low placement?

[rochesterdave]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's a good discussion but I dont like calling that trough a kicker..its actually the reason this thing is getting tugged west and not slamming nyc and new england with snow. 

. 

[rochesterdave]

Just now, PerintonMan said:

Do we get into that deformation band before it's launched into Ottawa?

How reliable is the backside action with that low placement?

Think we get it wrapped with a bow

[BuffaloWeather]

That jackpot zone is quite tiny 10-20 miles? 

[BuffaloWeather]

Icon a little SE? 

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

. 

Lol. I mean the that trough isn't pushing the storm off the coast. It's partially phasing with the southern low. 

[rochesterdave]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

...Southern Appalachians through the Interior Northeast... Days 1-3... A significant to major winter storm is expected to develop today and then lift up the coast through Tuesday morning. The primary low will develop near the Gulf Coast later today before lifting northeast just inland from the coast on Sunday, and then likely lifting west of I-95 Monday into southern Canada. This low will likely deepen rapidly as it ejects northward in response to a favorable and intensifying coupled jet structure and steady height falls/mid-level divergence associated with the closed low. Precipitation will become widespread and heavy as impressive warm and moist advection produces IVT above the 90th percentile, combined with a robust theta-e ridge which will wrap into an intense TROWAL. Pronounced 290K isentropic ascent will aid the deep layer ascent, with local upslope mechanisms further providing lift. Together, this suggests the entire east coast from SC to Maine will experience heavy precipitation, with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain all likely. The guidance has shown a subtle shift westward tonight, likely due to the further south track of the mid-level low pulling the surface wave back inland. At the same time, the preferred high-res guidance of the NAM, which usually better handles surface wedge setups (CAD) like this, is a bit stronger with the cold surface layer. With impressive 850mb LLJ within the WAA spreading inland, this will likely produce a major ice storm across the Piedmont of the Carolinas, where WPC probabilities for 0.25" are above 70%. Some guidance suggests freezing rain accretions could reach 0.75", but accretion efficiency should be quite low due to heavy rain rates, and the WSE and NBM 90th percentiles are both at or below 0.5". Still, significant and damaging ice is likely here. With the further west and subtly warmer solutions tonight, freezing rain is also becoming more of a concern across the Mid-Atlantic and as far north as the Catskills and Litchfield Hills of CT, but WPC probabilities for 0.1" of freezing rain as less than 10%. Northwest of the freezing rain, a large swath of heavy snow is expected from the Southern Appalachians through the Laurel Highlands of PA D1-2. In the terrain, the column will remain cold enough for snow, and as isentropic upglide becomes influenced by upslope ascent, snowfall will likely be prolific despite modest SLRs. WPC probabilities for more than 6 inches are above 70% in this region, with local maxima over 12" likely, highest in the NC mountains. North and west of the terrain, synoptic forcing will be most impressive, and a deformation axis characterized by impressive mid-level fgen and -EPV will produce heavy snowfall rates which may reach 2"/hr. The guidance continues to track slightly west with this axis, but confidence is high in a region of heavy snow and significant accumulations. WPC probabilities for 6+ inches are above 70% D2 in western PA and far western NY, reaching more than 80% into Upstate NY D3. Many locations within this band will likely receive more than 12 inches of snowfall. Further east the forecast is less clear-cut as warm advection/isentropic snow is likely to be significant, at least at onset, but may feature a changeover to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. For the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston, a thump of heavy snow is likely for a few hours at onset, but total snowfall accumulations should be modest, and WPC probabilities for 2+ inches are generally 30-50%. NW of the big cities, heavier snow is likely, especially in the terrain, and WPC probabilities feature a high risk for 4+ inches in a large area from central MD through much of interior New England where locally more than 8 inches is possible in the highest terrain.

Not loving that NAM is their preferred model. 

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM

[rochesterdave]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Lol. I mean the that trough isn't pushing the storm off the coast. It's partially phasing with the southern low. 

No, you are right. Lol. I think of it as kicking down on the backside of our trough. The harder it kicks the bigger the buckle. But yeah, if it’s successful it pulls it in. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Lol. I mean the that trough isn't pushing the storm off the coast. It's partially phasing with the southern low. 

Off topic, but are you getting slammed with snow/wind today?  Looks like a monster storm ongoing in Newfoundland...

[tim123]

Icon a tic se i think.

[wolfie09]

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Not loving that NAM is their preferred model. 

Hi Rez Nam brother..

I think it was more about the cold air damming..

 

he preferred high-res guidance of the NAM, which usually better handles surface wedge setups (CAD) like this, is a bit stronger with the cold surface layer

[tim123]

Rgem looks nice

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Off topic, but are you getting slammed with snow/wind today?  Looks like a monster storm ongoing in Newfoundland...

Wind and rain. It's been a shitty winter in Eastern NL so far. PEI and SE NB got the snow goods with this one. Well probably gust close to hurricane force tonight.  

[tim123]

Anyone see potential thundersnow in this?

[rochesterdave]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Hi Rez Nam brother..

I’ve asked this too many times, but is the 3k the hirez? 

[wolfie09]

Yes sir..

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve asked this too many times, but is the 3k the hirez? 

Yes sir

[tim123]

Rgem gives rochester .8 inches of precip in 3 hours.

[DeltaT13]

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve asked this too many times, but is the 3k the hirez? 

Just remember the smallest grid spacing is the highest resolution. 

[PerintonMan]

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Rgem gives rochester .8 inches of precip in 3 hours.

Wish we could hold onto that band for longer. Somewhere will get slammed as that band pivots right over them as the low moves through. That's how BGM got 40" last year.

[vortmax]

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Rgem gives rochester .8 inches of precip in 3 hours.

Even heavier amounts just off shore. Dang. 

[wolfie09]

[tim123]

3 inch a hour stuff