BGM Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:48 AM, tombo82685 said: from what I'm seeing at h5, can't see the gfs going east this run, might tick nw again Expand Models def seem to have been underestimating that northern stream wave. Seems to be getting stronger and faster with each run and yanking this thing even further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:51 AM, BGM Blizzard said: Models def seem to have been underestimating that northern stream wave. It's only getting stronger and faster with each run and yanking this thing west. Expand that and you can see deeper ULL, convection is enhancing se ridge out ahead of it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks same really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:54 AM, tim123 said: Looks same really. Expand Better and E if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well, guess I should get ready to build me a sleetman. That sucker will be around until May. Or until I melt after the next synoptic fail. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:55 AM, TugHillMatt said: Well, guess I should get ready to build me a sleetman. That sucker will be around until May. Or until I melt after the next synoptic fail. Expand Yeah I don't get why snow depth people wouldn't want sleet. It will stick around longer than any snow will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We settle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:56 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I don't get why snow depth people wouldn't want sleet. It will stick around longer than any snow will. Expand Hey, shouldn't this be: 2021 - 22 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:54 AM, tim123 said: Looks same really. Expand yea the storm track is basically the same, precip shifted a tad east from 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:00 AM, Gorizer said: Hey, shouldn't this be: 2021 - 22 ? Expand oh yes ty! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Really narrowing it down to wayne county west to niagara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 3:56 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I don't get why snow depth people wouldn't want sleet. It will stick around longer than any snow will. Expand As I said a couple days ago, sleetpacks are incredible in the durability...and the huge piles it makes when plowed. However, it takes forever for sleet to amount to anything. With the dryslot and precip. "minima" over CNY, not sure how much sleet we would be able to get. Plus, snow from a visual perspective, is so much more enjoyable to watch fall. Sleet is also much more difficult for winter recreation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Haven't been on in a couple hours. Who are all these people? Lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:02 AM, TugHillMatt said: As I said a couple days ago, sleetpacks are incredible in the durability...and the huge piles it makes when plowed. However, it takes forever for sleet to amount to anything. With the dryslot and precip. "minima" over CNY, not sure how much sleet we would be able to get. Plus, snow from a visual perspective, is so much more enjoyable to watch fall. Sleet is also much more difficult for winter recreation. Expand 1" qpf is 3" sleet i believe. I still would sell on anything less than 5" for your area with sleet/snow totals. I mean if this keeps back nw, dif story, but as of now thats what I would say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:04 AM, vortmax said: Haven't been on in a couple hours. Who are all these people? Lol Expand They are here to steal your snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:04 AM, vortmax said: Haven't been on in a couple hours. Who are all these people? Lol Expand Snow brings all the weenies to the yard, and they're like, my snows better than yours 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:04 AM, vortmax said: Haven't been on in a couple hours. Who are all these people? Lol Expand Toronto folk. They usually post in the great lake section but I think their climo is closer to ours, at least geographically. I mean they are an hour drive from Buffalo. They are more than welcome to post here! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 fwiw, no real point in looking at ggem, usually this close range it just resembles the rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:05 AM, tombo82685 said: 1" qpf is 3" sleet i believe. I still would sell on anything less than 5" for your area with sleet/snow totals. I mean if this keeps back nw, dif story, but as of now thats what I would say. Expand Thanks for the input. It's so strange not knowing what precip. type it's going to be considering the location of the low. But have to think the taint is going to ruin the snow fun with those warm levels we've been discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The Canadian is running. We'll have a better idea of what it's showing for hour 60 by the time the Ukie has updated its entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:09 AM, TugHillMatt said: Thanks for the input. It's so strange not knowing what precip. type it's going to be considering the location of the low. But have to think the taint is going to ruin the snow fun with those warm levels we've been discussing. Expand O yea, I'm expecting IP here as well. But still also thinking syr and here manages 1-3 on frontside then 1-2 on back side then whatever sleet falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:10 AM, TugHillMatt said: The Canadian is running. We'll have a better idea of what it's showing for hour 60 by the time the Ukie has updated its entire run. Expand probably will look exactly like rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:11 AM, tombo82685 said: probably will look exactly like rgem Expand It actually looked quite a bit better for the Cuse and Binghamton than the rgem did on the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Nws actually has a decent write up. 10 to 1 with Darth band lol. Then dramatically increasing on south shore to 20 to 1 or higher with wrap around and lake enhanced precip south of Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:17 AM, TugHillMatt said: It actually looked quite a bit better for the Cuse and Binghamton than the rgem did on the 12Z runs. Expand We sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 12:53 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Best of luck. What’s your seasonal average out there? Expand About 115 cm...I think that's about 46 or 47". Much less than Buffalo, Rochester, or Montreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:08 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Toronto folk. They usually post in the great lake section but I think their climo is closer to ours, at least geographically. I mean they are an hour drive from Buffalo. They are more than welcome to post here! Expand Thank you. Yes, and this storm looks to impact Toronto, Buffalo, and Rochester much more than Detroit or Chicago. It's an unusual set up, that's for sure. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GEM takes it Harrisburg to just east of Binghamton. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/15/2022 at 4:22 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Thank you. Yes, and this storm looks to impact Toronto, Buffalo, and Rochester much more than Detroit or Chicago. It's an unusual set up, that's for sure. Expand Toronto climate and even to a degree buffalo's climate is almost more Midwest. Rochester east start to be more a north east climate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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