BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Models continue to indicate a warm nose aloft making it at least to the Poconos and Catskills. Should this pan out, those areas would see snow, changing to a wintry mix Monday morning, then back to snow on the backside of the system late in the day. Some model guidance (such as the 12Z NAM) actually has this warm nose making it very far west (even to some areas west of I-81). Right now considering this the outlier, but this will have to be watched closely. Another area of uncertainty is the fact that much of the area east of I-81 (except the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos) will see downsloping winds, therefore potentially lowering amounts across those areas. In terms of snow amounts, right now expecting a swath of 8-12 inches for parts of the Finger Lakes (with higher amounts west of our forecast area), with 6-8 inches for areas just west of I-81. Areas east of I-81 are currently forecasted to see 4-6 inches of snow, with some 6-8 inch amounts for the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos. However, confidence in these amounts is still quite low due to the above mentioned factors. A mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible at times for areas south of I-88 and east of I-81 as well. So what this is telling me basically is that KBGM ripped and read this board for the past day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Let's see if the crazy Uncle scores a coup... It's happened before.... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Let's see if the crazy Uncle scores a coup... It's happened before.... You just became Tim's least favorite poster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: ICON is the best model ever. BFF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Let's see if the crazy Uncle scores a coup... It's happened before.... You go west, I go east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What's going on with our LE Tim? I watched a sunset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, vortmax said: What's going on with our LE Tim? I watched a sunset. Beautiful gibbous moon out here tonight. Down to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I think we are seeing the mixing issue because we lack a strong Canadian HP that is typically present with these. Our HP slides off the coast and actually aids in bringing in maritime air. Hopefully the east trends kick in soon. 0z might be scary though- right at that 48 hour where traditionally the west lean is strongest. It’s all superstition of course, but I’ll bet they start ticking back tomorrow. We’re already losing our eastern players. And it’s knock, knock, knocking on Monroe county. I still feel good. Sleet is just one of those limiting factors we gotta contend with. It’s always something. But the track is great. It’s strengthening as it climbs. I still say Syracuse and west sees a banger of a storm!! Appreciate the encouraging tone. Doubtful here that this synoptic wasteland of Syracuse gets a good storm. The only thing ever guaranteed here is WARM. Just like what's going to mess it up here while it snows all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 A pause... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like a nw jog on euro. Keeps intensifying se ridge in response to deep convection likely associated with system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12Z Euro on top compared to 18Z on bottom. Banding almost out of New York state now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well we did it. over the course of a few days, it was a storm over the fishies in the Atlantic to a storm dumping over Lake Ontario. Maybe it'll make it to Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 12Z Euro on top compared to 18Z on bottom. Banding almost out of New York state now. lol Wtf Toronto is going to jackpot at this rate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I thought you guys said its going to go further SE last minute? I've been in WNY for a long time and I'd say 80% of Miller As always go further north then modeled the last 1-2 days before impact. Miller Bs have a greater tendency to go further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Sell in those Ptype algorithms, there is going to be a lot of pinging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I didn't say it would go further SE. I hoped it would. The only time it goes Southeast is when we need it to come Northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That euro map obviously doesn't include everything..GFS has it snowing till Tues morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought you guys said its going to go further SE last minute? I've been in WNY for a long time and I'd say 80% of Miller As always go further north then modeled the last 1-2 days before impact. Miller Bs have a greater tendency to go further SE. I think we still end up being the bullseye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here's a 10-1 posted on another board, goes out to hour 80..(Monday night) Still looks good for you guys.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The GEFS would be ideal at this point, as that would be Northeasterly winds as opposed to the Southeasterly ones that bring in the warmth. More 'Nor'Easter Like" But, I think the GEFS are almost always the furthest SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Here's a 10-1 posted on another board, goes out to hour 80..(Monday night) Looks like some nice backend there which is what many will have to bank on to the East. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought you guys said its going to go further SE last minute? I've been in WNY for a long time and I'd say 80% of Miller As always go further north then modeled the last 1-2 days before impact. Miller Bs have a greater tendency to go further SE. I think it ticks east at the last minute. Starting tomorrow. Just something I’ve noticed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Looks like some nice backend there which is what many will have to bank on to the East. Wow, if that were to verify, it would be Toronto's biggest storm of this century thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I question that snow shield being as expansive as the Euro is showing it. This look is what gives the nice widespread snow amounts for all of PA and NY. I would almost split that snow shield in half and the southern/eastern half would be sleet, mix, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, Buckeyes_Suck said: Wtf Toronto is going to jackpot at this rate. About time...Toronto almost never hits the jackpot, and we hardly ever get lake effect snows. Still hoping Buffalo and Rochester are big winners too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Good map. Goes well with my 4 to 8 inch call from earlier today. Can't believe how consistent the models have been and wish we could get that shift (we really don't need MUCH...gah) to the south and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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