Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th

[Thinksnow18]

Most likely this is a not yet slugger but is it possible they issue a warning by tomorrow am or the afternoon shift if things stay the same?

[Syrmax]

We'll see how the models play out over the next few runs but the globals indicate a decent hit for CNY and a major one for WNY.  ENY on the fence.  Given mid/upper level tracks I'm reasonably confident in 8-12" for SYR.  We may need some lake assist on the backside to reach 12" though.   NAM and RDPS could be onto something with problems with mid level warming about HR72 but not sure i'd get too worked up about that yet.  They're still not in their wheelhouse.

[rochesterdave]

14 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Oof. Deformation band blasts through and into Canada and it looks like ROC dry-slots and then relies on a good and long backside hit -- not what you want to count on.

We won’t know where the deformation zone sets up until it’s happening. Still looks great for all of WNY in my opinion. Perinton should do great! 

[DeltaT13]

Real cool satellite loop today (as Tim has linked a few times) showing the lake effect south of Ontario with cooling cloud tops.  Also though, check out the downslope shadowing South of the Tughill.  That is really pronounced!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeOntario-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

[Sub_Zero]

Sitting at -1f at the moment up here, looking forward to a good dumping on Monday. 

[WaistDeepSnow]

1 minute ago, Sub_Zero said:

Sitting at -1f at the moment up here, looking forward to a good dumping on Monday. 

Fitting name there.  

[rochesterdave]

For the haters. Lol. 

[96blizz]

Just now, rochesterdave said:

For the haters. Lol. 

How dare you!!!

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

For the haters. Lol. 

I embrace this and commend you on the good work.

[Buffalo Bumble]

23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Real cool satellite loop today (as Tim has linked a few times) showing the lake effect south of Ontario with cooling cloud tops.  Also though, check out the downslope shadowing South of the Tughill.  That is really pronounced!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeOntario-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

Very cool!  We've had snow here all afternoon, mood flakes to start but nice squall ongoing for the last 30 minutes or so.  Nice whitening of everything at least as the frigid air moves in.  

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Looks nice out

Hmm, looks like about SIX going on eight new inches, Tim?

[vortmax]

Not getting anything in Ontario. Really... Lol

Although models have precip mostly overnight. 

 

[TugHillMatt]

Inches and inches of drysloping sunshine here. 

Just looking at radar...geesh, Niagara county has had a good winter compared to so many. Seems like the snowbelt this year (secondary to Virginia and Tennessee).

 

[LakeEffectKing]

T+240 (h500 and surface) looks NICE on 12z Euro....

[tim123]

In and out of light to moderate puff balls. About half inch down.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

 

I'd take 7" here in Toronto. Hopefully it doesn't shift anymore southeast. Wow for Buffalo/Niagara though....

[tim123]

42 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Not getting anything in Ontario. Really... Lol

Although models have precip mostly overnight. 

 

Overnight tonight into tomorrow. 

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Overnight tonight into tomorrow. 

Gotta be honest I’m surprised I’m receiving the snow I am currently from Lake Ontario. This gives me real optimism that the numbers the models are currently showing can be achieved with the help of the lake during and after the system.

[vortmax]

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Overnight tonight into tomorrow. 

We'll see. Haven't had much luck with LE this season here. 

[rochesterdave]

NAM is east believe it or not. 

[wolfie09]

Well that sucks lol

[wolfie09]

Not sure how legit this is but funny nonetheless lol

We go from 23° to 36° in 3 hrs and back into the 20s 3hours later lol

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks good

[vortmax]

And so the SE shift begins...

[Syrmax]

13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well that sucks lol

Enjoy the Torch...its the only one you got! 

[wolfie09]

The latest model runs of the 12Z GFS, Canadian and NAM along with
the old 00Z ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track of the
low from the Southeast States Sunday up through the Catskills and
Upper Hudson Valley and into northern New England. The slight shift
from 00Z guidance was a track to the west...one that still leaves
our region with snow, but could begin to introduce some sleet mixing
in across the Upper Genesee Valley and Finger lakes region early
Monday. Will leave the forecast as all snow as slight differences in
model run to run is expected, though if they do continue this
westward trend sleet will become more of a concern along our eastern
zones.

A surface low will track from near Georgia Sunday morning, inland up
the eastern spine of the Appalachian Mountains. This storm will tap
into Atlantic moisture, aiding in falling snow to over come an
initial very dry lower layer...and begin to produce light snow near
the State line early Sunday evening.

Sunday Night the surface low will track to southern PA, keeping an
inland route with a surface high anchored off the New England
coastline. Snow will spread from south to north across our region
becoming heavier across western zones Sunday Night where a
deformation band of snow will form. Snow under this deformation band
will yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour, with the
heavy snow then tracking towards Canada and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Monday.

Initial snowfall ratios will be near a 10:1, possibly sub 10:1
across eastern zones where warmer air may sneak into the region. As
the surface low tracks by to our north and deeper colder air pushes
back into our region, snow ratios will dramatically increase to 20:1
and higher with lake effect snow then falling south of lakes Erie
and Ontario later Monday and Monday Night.

While blowing snow initially will be minimal, after the surface low
tracks by and the push of colder northerly flow commences blowing
snow will begin to impact our region. Northerly winds gusting up to
30 to 35 mph off Lake Ontario will lower visibility a long the
southern shore counties.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally remain in the mid to
upper 20s. Lows at night will drop back into the upper teens, to
single digits east of Lake Ontario.

[96blizz]

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The latest model runs of the 12Z GFS, Canadian and NAM along with
the old 00Z ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track of the
low from the Southeast States Sunday up through the Catskills and
Upper Hudson Valley and into northern New England. The slight shift
from 00Z guidance was a track to the west...one that still leaves
our region with snow, but could begin to introduce some sleet mixing
in across the Upper Genesee Valley and Finger lakes region early
Monday. Will leave the forecast as all snow as slight differences in
model run to run is expected, though if they do continue this
westward trend sleet will become more of a concern along our eastern
zones.

A surface low will track from near Georgia Sunday morning, inland up
the eastern spine of the Appalachian Mountains. This storm will tap
into Atlantic moisture, aiding in falling snow to over come an
initial very dry lower layer...and begin to produce light snow near
the State line early Sunday evening.

Sunday Night the surface low will track to southern PA, keeping an
inland route with a surface high anchored off the New England
coastline. Snow will spread from south to north across our region
becoming heavier across western zones Sunday Night where a
deformation band of snow will form. Snow under this deformation band
will yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour, with the
heavy snow then tracking towards Canada and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Monday.

Initial snowfall ratios will be near a 10:1, possibly sub 10:1
across eastern zones where warmer air may sneak into the region. As
the surface low tracks by to our north and deeper colder air pushes
back into our region, snow ratios will dramatically increase to 20:1
and higher with lake effect snow then falling south of lakes Erie
and Ontario later Monday and Monday Night.

While blowing snow initially will be minimal, after the surface low
tracks by and the push of colder northerly flow commences blowing
snow will begin to impact our region. Northerly winds gusting up to
30 to 35 mph off Lake Ontario will lower visibility a long the
southern shore counties.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally remain in the mid to
upper 20s. Lows at night will drop back into the upper teens, to
single digits east of Lake Ontario.

Love this idea. 
 

As of now, for near SYR it looks like a thump to sleet to snizzle/dry and then back to high ratio snow off the lake and from the decaying deformation band. 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Love this idea. 
 

As of now, for near SYR it looks like a thump to sleet to snizzle/dry and then back to high ratio snow off the lake and from the decaying deformation band. 

Yes...my over/under for synoptics in Syracuse is 8"...12" factoring in some lake enhancement/effect into Tuesday am

[wolfie09]

[WxWatcher007]

First map I've seen from BUF.

Looks like an absolutely frigid night east of Ontario. Decided against heading west for this one, but with the pattern LEK highlighted earlier, it won't be long until it's WxWatcher Wagons West