Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:35 PM, KPITSnow said: I’d be one. We NEVER get tracks like this for Pittsburgh. It is almost ideal…and if it mixes it will be painful Expand Dont look at the next few frames of NAM, looking for Jamestown. However you might be good to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It's not a storm without crazy ampd NAM runs. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 A little west. NAM being NAM. West is my worry but it looks ok. Amped for sure. That mid level warmth etc. but not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ouch lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ROC has been in the deformation band on almost every run -- great place to be if it holds. But there will be wiggles and wobbles, surely. Not sure which I should be more concerned about: A. low going farther SE or tighter precip shield that leaves WNY on the periphery B. low going far enough NW that the deformation band quickly lifts through into Ontatio and we end up in the dry slot (I think mix is probably out of the picture *knock on wood*) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:37 PM, LakeEffectKing said: The kicker wave will be key...look at the changes already... Expand Yep not good. Just about lights out for here. I'm shocked BGM issued watches all the way to I81 and esp this early. Its marginal at best for warning criteria snowfall the way things have been looking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Almost a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:42 PM, rochesterdave said: Almost a blizzard. Expand Why you say that. Winds are low 20 25 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Kuchera actually lowers totals in Rochester. Working as it should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah I'd toss that run. Looks really wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not enough cold air in PA for snow? That would be quite the ice/sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Well, ice storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I feel like I’ve been tracking this for two weeks and the NAM is still in its longest range…. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems like this is going to end up as a repeat of our Feb 21 storm...8-12" of snow forecast, 3-4" of slop and sleet instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:46 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Not enough cold air in PA for snow? That would be quite the ice/sleet storm Expand Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nam with 1/2"+ of freezing rain here, I hope that doesn't happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Figured it’d be windier with a 980 over the Dacks. But surface winds pretty light. I do think it’s a good track for very heavy snow Buf and Roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:47 PM, 96blizz said: I feel like I’ve been tracking this for two weeks and the NAM is still in its longest range…. Expand I agree. Work will suffer today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Y'all realize you're talking about the NAM at 66+hrs right? See below: On 1/14/2022 at 1:15 PM, tombo82685 said: I would start paying more attention to mesos starting tomorrow night and def sunday. They are going to be the best to pick up those sneaky warm layers that globals will not. Don't under estimate the power of that LLJ screaming off the atlantic into the system. That will transport warm air inland aloft. Maybe not enough for some to avoid IP but enough to lower snow ratios. That LLJ hose is also what creates your big deform band too Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:53 PM, rochesterdave said: Figured it’d be windier with a 980 over the Dacks. But surface winds pretty light. I do think it’s a good track for very heavy snow Buf and Roc. Expand Agree with track being good. Just need that mid level warmth out of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:54 PM, vortmax said: Y'all realize you're talking about the NAM at 66+hrs right? Expand Nam in pretty bad after 36 48 hours. Tends to over amp all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:54 PM, rochesterdave said: I agree. Work will suffer today Expand Work has been suffering since last week and my boss isn't happy... I'm the boss .. On 1/14/2022 at 2:54 PM, vortmax said: Y'all realize you're talking about the NAM at 66+hrs right? Expand When is the NAM really trustworthy..if ever? (Not retorical, actually asking) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ne to sw cloud streets forming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:19 PM, LakeEffectKing said: Not sure you'll see much lake enhancement during the storm.. maybe at the very end.... ... The " No pulse recorded band" you see depicted on the models, is basically basically an occluded front from the old primary, where the deformation band forms....ie...mid levels... You won't have a ton of instability at the lowest levels with 850 millibar temperatures only -4 at best... Until we can sample that kicker impulse over the Pacific better, (like tonight and tomorrow's runs), we could potentially see some significant changes, especially in the mid level set up. Expand Ahh ok, would of thought with north east flow when winds back around it would get some enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 3:01 PM, tombo82685 said: Ahh ok, would of thought with north east flow when winds back around it would get some enhancement Expand There will be when low in in Northern Vermont or dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:50 PM, wolfie09 said: Nam with 1/2"+ of freezing rain here, I hope that doesn't happen lol Expand That’s how much rain falls with temps below freezing, radial accrual would be much less than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That enhancement is tough to predict. I’d expect a lot IF the mid levels aren’t crap. I’ve seen totals double with a NE wind for the border counties. I’d expect at least some help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 3:06 PM, rochesterdave said: That enhancement is tough to predict. I’d expect a lot IF the mid levels aren’t crap. I’ve seen totals double with a NE wind for the border counties. I’d expect at least some help. Expand At the very least, we'll see LE snow showers and a few more inches on very tail end. That would be nice. RH, 850s, wind, cyclonic flow all favor this as the LP is pulling away. Then the clipper, then more LE, then another storm possible 10 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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