TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: It's funny, you can tell where individuals live when a model comes out that doesn't hit their area For sure. The only model I hate, no matter what it shows, is the Nam. We have longstanding issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I always get mixed up which one it was, both those Marches were solid Sure was. We had 39.6 in Mar 2017 and 36.3 in Mar 2018 here at BGM. Mar 2018 saved the 2017-18 winter from being a top 10 dud for snowfall here, and actually ended up slightly above avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Sure was. We had 39.6 in Mar 2017 and 36.3 in Mar 2018 here at BGM. Mar 2018 saved the 2017-18 winter from being a top 10 dud for snowfall here, and actually ended up slightly above avg. How much did you have in December 2020? Oh, wait..never mind. Don't answer. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Here's 0Z NAM, 850/700 and 1000/850 Thickness at h84. Arguably the warmest model attm. Not really seeing a mix here in CNY. Refuced qpf yes with proximity to mid levels slot but these don't indicate PL/ZR for CNY. It's a brief uptick wrt 850mb temps at hR 81, it's gone by 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Here's 0Z NAM, 850/700 and 1000/850 Thickness at h84. Arguably the warmest model attm. Not really seeing a mix here in CNY. Refuced qpf yes with proximity to mid levels but these don't indicate PL/ZR for CNY. Unless this goes over bgm, any mixing if it does in syr would be brief. It doesn't though change the fact there will be some warm tongues aloft that won't be well aligned with good dendritic snow growth. Now if we get a ukmet type track different story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: How much did you have in December 2020? Oh, wait..never mind. Don't answer. Please. Ha...48.2... almost half the season total in 1.5 days. And enough to land 2020-21 winter in the top 10 for snowfall in what was one of the worst winters ever in the NE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I hate using the NAM, it may be overcooked. But any time you have a 64+knot southeast LLJ ripping your way, you will not have good snow ratios and def watch for warm layers. Thats a straight firehose off the atl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Ha...48.2... almost half the season total in 1.5 days. And enough to land 2020-21 winter in the top 10 for snowfall in what was one of the worst winters ever in the NE US. 20-21 was pretty decent down in sepa, finished abv normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: It's funny, you can tell where individuals live when a model comes out that doesn't hit their area Its crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: I hate using the NAM, it may be overcooked. But any time you have a 64+knot southeast LLJ ripping your way, you will not have good snow ratios and def watch for warm layers. Thats a straight firehose off the atl you can also see why erie to roc is favored here too because they are in the ccb portion of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Uncle is back on the sauce as they say in the NE forum when it pulls something like that out of a hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Thats a tughill to tombo special, has to be wrong I hope it's a tug hill special that 146 Polaris Assault gonna do work! Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Ha...48.2... almost half the season total in 1.5 days. And enough to land 2020-21 winter in the top 10 for snowfall in what was one of the worst winters ever in the NE US. That's just crazy. I bet you had piles all winter from that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I hate using the NAM, it may be overcooked. But any time you have a 64+knot southeast LLJ ripping your way, you will not have good snow ratios and def watch for warm layers. Thats a straight firehose off the atl Yeah, that's what I was saying earlier...you have all that moist, mild air coming in on a southeasterly wind from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Big run for the EURO tonight. Wonder if it follows the UKIE? These little fluctuations are always fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I think euro goes se a bit in line with gfs cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I hate using the NAM, it may be overcooked. But any time you have a 64+knot southeast LLJ ripping your way, you will not have good snow ratios and def watch for warm layers. Thats a straight firehose off the atl Impressive. Fortunately this isn't i95 that would torch within minutes in that setup. THKs tell most of the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Impressive. Fortunately this isn't i95 that would torch within minutes in that setup. No, but that jet is enough to bring warmer air well inland into the mid levels. It’s the nam though. Once mesos get inside 24hrs you take them seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Kevin Williams fb page. Local met in rochester 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: No, but that jet is enough to bring warmer air well inland into the mid levels. It’s the nam though. Once mesos get inside 24hrs you take them seriously I hope you post during severe weather season in summer too, your knowledge is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Impressive. Fortunately this isn't i95 that would torch within minutes in that setup. Just looked at 00Z NAM text output for KSYR... Between 78->84h 0.59" qpf. At hr 84 the warmest temp in the column is at 800mb, -0.6C and UVV is positive (sinking air -> slotted). So that would be 5-8" snow from 78-84 hrs b4 slotting a bit. Not sure after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 https://snowridge.com/live-feed/ Some how it’s snowing heavily at Snow Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: Kevin Williams fb page. Local met in rochester KW is the bomb. Loved listening to him on the way into work in am when he was on ROC NPR station. He was cancelled though, before being cancelled was a thing. I think the Marxists that run NPR couldn't tolerate him not gulping down ALL the global warming Kool Aid. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: KW is the bomb. Loved listening to him on the way into work in am when he was on ROC NPR station. He was cancelled though, before being cancelled was a thing. I think the Marxists that run NPR couldn't tolerate him not gulping down ALL the global warming Kool Aid. Great forecaster. Big time nut. But probably best for the other page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Just looked at 00Z NAM text output for KSYR... Between 78->84h 0.59" qpf. At hr 84 the warmest temp in the column is at 800mb, -0.6C and UVV is positive (sinking air -> slotted). So that would be 5-8" snow from 78-84 hrs b4 slotting a bit. Not sure after that. Whats it show for roc at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The northern stream energy looks a bit flatter and/or slower this run thru H54 compared to 12/18z runs. Not sure how much impact that will have downstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Whats it show for roc at that time? Snow+ 0.85" liquid from h75 to h84. No mix issues at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro running. Let's get this over with. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Similar to 12z in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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