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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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  On 1/14/2022 at 4:33 AM, tombo82685 said:

remember 24hrs ago, they almost had timmy swan diving into Ontario. They made no sense with where everything else was. lower resolution ftl 

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The GFS Op has by far been the best model this season. So, that is keeping me from jumping in Onondaga Lake and contaminating myself with lethal amounts of Mercury and every other poison and disease.

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  On 1/14/2022 at 4:35 AM, TugHillMatt said:

The GFS Op has by far been the best model this season. So, that is keeping me from jumping in Onondaga Lake and contaminating myself with lethal amounts of Mercury and every other poison and disease.

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I still think you're fine for 6 or more, esp being west of syracuse.

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  On 1/14/2022 at 4:35 AM, OSUmetstud said:

I think the random ip showing up in buffalo on the rdps near the end of the run is the result of downsloping off the Apps/Alleghany front. It's a weird feature and a bit unexpected but physically possible. 

 

 

rgem-all-ontario-t850-2399200.png

rgem-all-ontario-z850_speed-2399200.png

rdps_2022011400_081_KBUF.png

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Thanks. Unfortunately, the whole issue of downsloping affects Syracuse as well on a south-based wind...and I was wondering earlier if that's what the models were showing. :( 

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  On 1/14/2022 at 4:38 AM, tombo82685 said:

One thing I have learned from these systems, never under estimate mid level warm push. It usually is stronger than modeled. 

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Go look at bottom of upstate at the title from Feb 2021 of "back to back synoptic snowstorms". The big one went 150 miles NW in the last 24 hours. We all had WSW in effect for 1-2' and I think I got 2" lol

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  On 1/14/2022 at 4:41 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Go look at bottom of upstate at the title from Feb 2021 of "back to back synoptic snowstorms". The big one went 150 miles NW in the last 24 hours. We all had WSW in effect for 1-2' and I think I got 2" lol

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I spoke about the march 2018 storm that brought bgm like 3'. They had wsw up for philly area for 1-2' that turned into 4-8" and 4" of sleet

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  On 1/14/2022 at 4:52 AM, tombo82685 said:

Makes sense, upper levels don't support good snow growth with warm tongues in the 850-700mb zone. But there will probably be some decent rates with the start of waa band 

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Here's 0Z NAM, 850/700 and 1000/850 Thickness at h84. Arguably the warmest model attm.  Not really seeing a mix here in CNY. Refuced qpf yes with proximity to mid levels slot but these don't indicate PL/ZR for CNY.

 

Edit: if its a strong slot, could see mix till it passes thru. But not in middle of CCB.

Screenshot_20220113-235548_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20220113-235634_Chrome.jpg

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