tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: I wish they didn't, because they look the best for our area. remember 24hrs ago, they almost had timmy swan diving into Ontario. They made no sense with where everything else was. lower resolution ftl 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I think the random ip showing up in buffalo on the rdps near the end of the run is the result of downsloping off the Apps/Alleghany front. It's a weird feature and a bit unexpected but physically possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: remember 24hrs ago, they almost had timmy swan diving into Ontario. They made no sense with where everything else was. lower resolution ftl The GFS Op has by far been the best model this season. So, that is keeping me from jumping in Onondaga Lake and contaminating myself with lethal amounts of Mercury and every other poison and disease. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: The GFS Op has by far been the best model this season. So, that is keeping me from jumping in Onondaga Lake and contaminating myself with lethal amounts of Mercury and every other poison and disease. I still think you're fine for 6 or more, esp being west of syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I think the random ip showing up in buffalo on the rdps near the end of the run is the result of downsloping off the Apps/Alleghany front. It's a weird feature and a bit unexpected but physically possible. Thanks. Unfortunately, the whole issue of downsloping affects Syracuse as well on a south-based wind...and I was wondering earlier if that's what the models were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 One thing I have learned from these systems, never under estimate mid level warm push. It usually is stronger than modeled. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10:1 GEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: One thing I have learned from these systems, never under estimate mid level warm push. It usually is stronger than modeled. Go look at bottom of upstate at the title from Feb 2021 of "back to back synoptic snowstorms". The big one went 150 miles NW in the last 24 hours. We all had WSW in effect for 1-2' and I think I got 2" lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Thanks Tom! He beat me to it! Anyway--even if there is a brief mix I think it's fine. We want a glacier after a synoptic event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The Canadian did head east some since 12Z. Instead of the Low over Syracuse it now has it over Albany. Some ticks back to the east with GFS and Canadian...maybe it continues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Go look at bottom of upstate at the title from Feb 2021 of "back to back synoptic snowstorms". The big one went 150 miles NW in the last 24 hours. We all had WSW in effect for 1-2' and I think I got 2" lol I spoke about the march 2018 storm that brought bgm like 3'. They had wsw up for philly area for 1-2' that turned into 4-8" and 4" of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I don't care how much snow I get, but I'm strongly rooting for that tiny island of sleet over lysander. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 10:1 GEM Kutchie actually takes these numbers down for parts of CNY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ukie slid east a tad from 12z. dc to nyc track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Kutchie actually takes these numbers down for CNY lol Makes sense, upper levels don't support good snow growth with warm tongues in the 850-700mb zone. But there will probably be some decent rates with the start of waa band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ouch. With doomcasters like Tombo and Buf up in here we could use some optimism. Where’s Tim when you need him? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Grainy snow outside now. Looks like cold front eading on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Ouch. With doomcasters like Tombo and Buf up in here we could use some optimism. Where’s Tim when you need him? Lol what, I already stated your area is probably the jackpot zone with the h7 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: ukie slid east a tad from 12z. dc to nyc track Way east, gives me flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I don't care how much snow I get, but I'm strongly rooting for that tiny island of sleet over lysander. "sniff" "sniff" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Way east, gives me flurries here. O jeeez didn't realize it came that far. The slp track didn't look that far east when comparing when it was down by dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I spoke about the march 2018 storm that brought bgm like 3'. They had wsw up for philly area for 1-2' that turned into 4-8" and 4" of sleet That was March 2017. Great storm. Remember it well. It put the winter of 2016-17 atop the all time for most snow at BGM (135.2) by a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Way east, gives me flurries here. Thats a tughill to tombo special, has to be wrong 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: That was March 2017. Great storm. Remember it well. It put the winter of 2016-17 atop the all time for most snow at BGM by a few inches. I always get mixed up which one it was, both those Marches were solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ukmet is a crappy model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Way east, gives me flurries here. An, with that beauty, now I can go to sleep, dreaming of unicorns and lollipops frolicking in the hills of 15 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ukmet is a crappy model Hey, now. I didn't say the Ggem is a crappy model when it gave you the Jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ukmet is a crappy model at h5, its the second best scoring model behind the euro. I mean where those h5 scores are taken from, who knows lol. It def can be erratic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, now. I didn't say the Ggem is a crappy model when it gave you the Jackpot. It's funny, you can tell where individuals live when a model comes out that doesn't hit their area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Makes sense, upper levels don't support good snow growth with warm tongues in the 850-700mb zone. But there will probably be some decent rates with the start of waa band Here's 0Z NAM, 850/700 and 1000/850 Thickness at h84. Arguably the warmest model attm. Not really seeing a mix here in CNY. Refuced qpf yes with proximity to mid levels slot but these don't indicate PL/ZR for CNY. Edit: if its a strong slot, could see mix till it passes thru. But not in middle of CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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