PerintonMan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Naive question: how do these 3 models have the lows in completely different places (Harrisburg, Scranton, and well east of NJ), but the precip shield are almost exactly the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I've never seen a synoptic storm drop 2" of QPF across WNY. This would be a first. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 New map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 SYR at hour 114 down in accumulation from 00z run Thought with track further east, those mega amounts to Syracuse's west would move east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, PerintonMan said: Naive question: how do these 3 models have the lows in completely different places (Harrisburg, Scranton, and well east of NJ), but the precip shield are almost exactly the same? Check the hour time frames, the GFS timing is slightly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I've never seen a synoptic storm drop 2" of QPF across WNY. This would be a first. Let's not be greedy and shift that 10-15 miles NE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, sferic said: SYR at hour 114 down in accumulation from 00z run Thought with track further east, those mega amounts to Syracuse's west would move east too A lot of that QPF is enhanced from Ontario on NE winds. Syracuse should be just fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, sferic said: SYR at hour 114 down in accumulation from 00z run Thought with track further east, those mega amounts to Syracuse's west would move east too Don’t sweat it too much. Models will struggle a bit with the exact placement of that band. Here and cazenovia got waxed by that feature early February of last year and it was not really modeled well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Really nice synoptic hit out there. Wagons west for me this weekend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: A lot of that QPF is enhanced from Ontario on NE winds. Syracuse should be just fine Tbh it's more about the deform band.. Euro doesn't show enhancement well.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Tbh it's more about the deform band.. Euro doesn't show enhancement well.. Alex, I’ll take both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Let's not be greedy and shift that 10-15 miles NE Only because you got transitioned zone in the last LES event I'll allow it. I actually expect the max QPF to be Rochester-Bing-Syr line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Those Euro Kuch maps have to be insane. 25-35"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Those Euro Kuch maps have to be insane. 25-35"? Right around 30” for BUF 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, sferic said: SYR at hour 114 down in accumulation from 00z run Thought with track further east, those mega amounts to Syracuse's west would move east too At this time range, i wouldn't get too hung up on qpf, its maybe the most unreliable panel overall. Look at the H500 & H700 tracks...damn near perfect for CNY/WNY...just to our east from south/central PA to roughly Albany while still strengthening. That's money. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Whatever the case, I have a holiday Monday and I will be in where ever that band sets up soaking up those rates. I'm canceling my hiking trip. I don't want to be up in the ADK hiking during an event like this. I'd end up on the news as a missing person report. lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Right around 30” for BUF 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: How much is that dot over Orleans? Wow :0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can we please ban the posting of Kuchera maps? They aren't realistic and get peoples hopes up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS right now is best case scenario for pretty much all of kbuf CWA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Can we please ban the posting of Kuchera maps? They aren't realistic and get peoples hopes up. I mean it drops 1.9-2.1 qpf at 1-10 that’s 19-21”. Ratios are likely 1:15 in this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Wpc 5D total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I mean it drops 1.9-2.1 qpf at 1-10 that’s 19-21”. Ratios are likely 1:15 in this event? I’ll bet $100 no one is getting anything near 24 inches let alone the low 30s I see on that map. It’s fantasy shit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 bUt WhY diDn'T I gEt my 349" tHaT yoU Pr0misEd?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ll bet $100 no one is getting anything near 24 inches let alone the low 30s I see on that map. It’s fantasy shit Oh I completely agree but that’s what the qpf is showing so the kuchera map ratios are not unrealistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ll bet $100 no one is getting anything near 24 inches let alone the low 30s I see on that map. It’s fantasy shit They might have that bet on one of the sports betting sites. Over/under? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ll bet $100 no one is getting anything near 24 inches let alone the low 30s I see on that map. It’s fantasy shit Usually I’d agree. But if we get this track, id put my $ down on 2 feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Usually I’d agree. But if we get this track, id put my $ down on 2 feet. Stamped and saved… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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