rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Still not buying the double-barrel look. I see what you’re talking about. 6z had the primary out over water with a secondary over NYC. 12z flips it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Whoever is in that deform band to NW of the storm will be happy. Just clobbers WNY, still believe that band ends up across Central NY. It drops 1-1.75" of QPF for all of Upstate. Dude look at that remarkable cutoff on the western edge. 24” in BUF , 5” in Hamilton Ontario. A distance of 50 miles… this thing moves East and we’re in big trouble in far WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Anyone notice that the GFS brings the 492dm bubble over us with a NNW cyclonic flow after the clipper? Dang. This could be a VERY snowy (and frigid - old Weather Channel saying) couple of weeks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Models have been pretty consistent in showing banding across the NW flanks of the storm. Whoever ends up in that band of death @Syrmax is going to experience some incredible synoptic snowfall rates. 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Models have been pretty consistent in showing banding across the NW flanks of the storm. Whoever ends up in that band of death @Syrmax is going to experience some incredible synoptic snowfall rates. You're skating on thin ice pal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Dude look at that remarkable cutoff on the western edge. 24” in BUF , 5” in Hamilton Ontario. A distance of 50 miles… this thing moves East and we’re in big trouble in far WNY. Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. As Delta said (along with the BUF disco), the HP placement is good for a rare Apps runner and the Apps aren't too large to mess with the LP, especially a Miller A. Gravity waves with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12Z Canadian has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. GEFS have been a bit of a train wreck to this point. Too many members way out to sea, skewing the mean. Interesting to see if that tightens up. CMC ensembles looked tighter last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: And I’m 100% right at least 50% of the time. Just like you're 100% man with at least 50% of your nuts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: As Delta said (along with the BUF disco), the HP placement is good for a rare Apps runner and the Apps aren't too large to mess with the LP, especially a Miller A. The HP is retreating though...not a classic look for a hook low or something forced inland. At this point anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Just like you're 100% man with at least 50% of your nuts. He may only have 0% of his nuts if this Miller A works out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Weenie runs of ICON and GFS here. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The HP is retreating though...not a classic look for a hook low or something forced inland. At this point anyway... NAO should be slightly negative at this point so hopefully the HP doesn't move too quickly. I just hope we see a stronger phasing to keep this tucked more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. So screwed either way? Helpful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll post the updated version later when it comes out, usually 18z or so.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yep. GEFS caved save for one straggler. Way West. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: He may only have 0% of his nuts if this Miller A works out. ...and if it doesn't work out, he will have 0% nuts and 0%: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like the Canadian is warmer, at least according to these images..I doubt the deform band will be a mix lol Track is pretty far west though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Called it.... 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: ...and if it doesn't work out, he will have 0% nuts and 0%: 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: So screwed either way? Helpful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 IF trends continue I’m guessing with the magnitude of this system watches hoisted tomorrow afternoon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Good thing the Canadian is so often wrong. It's been pretty amped with systems this season as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Again. I would expect NW trends with a last minute SE correction. Just my take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: WOW. HUGE difference and looking like many other models now. Took them long enough! Poor Mid Atlantic crew... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: WOW. HUGE difference and looking like many other models now. Took them long enough! Poor Mid Atlantic crew... Poor nothing for those Mid-Atlantic folks, they just got a nice storm a week ago and we all missed out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: IF trends continue I’m guessing with the magnitude of this system watches hoisted tomorrow afternoon? Thinking more Saturday am given Friday afternoon package is still 60 hrs out from gametime... But maybe...given its a holiday weekend for many. And impact looks to be high. And waiting till after 12Z runs tomorrow gives them 2 more model cycles to see what/if anything changes before hoisting the Black Flag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: Poor nothing for those Mid-Atlantic folks, they just got a nice storm a week ago and we all missed out. Exactly. DC literally has more snow that I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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