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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

you want to find the best snow with these systems, always want to be either nw or west of h7 low track 

100-150 W/NW of h850 is the old rule of thumb I've been taught. You can be under the h700 closed low and do very well for SN production.  But yeah a bit NW also works.

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

lol and the gefs mean goes further southeast. What in the literal woot. Either the op is on crack, or the lower resolution of gefs ens members just aren't picking up on something 

I'm perplexed also and it's even further east on this run. The mean is on the Benchmark lol

61dfabd9099a7.png

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Well this was posted earlier by BGM Blizz

 

Given the amount of convection showing up in the
models, and the streaky nature of the 6 hour QPF in the global
deterministic , means that strong, deep convection is probable. Latent
heat release helps build the upstream ridge and the higher
resolution of the deterministic runs will calculate that better than
the Ensembles.
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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seriously, the GFS and Canadian can stop going west now. Geesh. Lol

Gotta see what the Euro brings.  I'm still not a buyer of the GFS  slp track...ORF to Leesburg VA to MDT and over BGM to about Mt Marcy?  Probably some resolution issues but ORF to NW VA is a NW track over VA and then NNE.  Weird.

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well this was posted earlier by BGM

 

Given the amount of convection showing up in the
models, and the streaky nature of the 6 hour QPF in the global
deterministic , means that strong, deep convection is probable. Latent
heat release helps build the upstream ridge and the higher
resolution of the deterministic runs will calculate that better than
the Ensembles.

Whatever plays out this system will be instructive regarding the use of ensembles...

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Seeing as how Buffalo’s greatest Miller A snowstorm was the fabled Appalachian Spine Runner back on January 23, 1827 when 8.2” of snow fell I sadly have to pass on the model runs showing anything over 12” in WNY. 

What does this mean? 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Seeing as how Buffalo’s greatest Miller A snowstorm was the fabled Appalachian Spine Runner back on January 23, 1827 when 8.2” of snow fell I sadly have to pass on the model runs showing anything over 12” in WNY. 

This is false. March 2008 was a Miller A that brought 2 feet to WNY. 30"+ to Holiday Valley.

image.jpeg.3c37b4a3e17d15fbe0d1fbe9bd6ddc17.jpeg

 

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This whole storms don’t ride up the apps feels a little overstated these days. The apps honestly aren’t a giant geographic impediment when compared to the dynamics of the Eastern seaboard; nor are they wide enough to have a super significant impact on the track.  Plenty of storms can overcome that and ride more or less up them.  I feel like every other year we say “storms don’t ride up the apps” and then three days later a storm rides directly up the apps. I guess all I’m saying is a perfect WNY track is still in play. I’m officially pretty excited with a lot the consensus this far out. 

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