tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Warm nose leftover from upper low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 you want to find the best snow with these systems, always want to be either nw or west of h7 low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:29 AM, tombo82685 said: also, thats not snow those colors, its IP Expand That would be heavy snow over WNY not IP though. Probably just an issue with this specific modeling page. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 lol and the gefs mean goes further southeast. What in the literal woot. Either the op is on crack, or the lower resolution of gefs ens members just aren't picking up on something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:31 AM, tombo82685 said: you want to find the best snow with these systems, always want to be either nw or west of h7 low track Expand 100-150 W/NW of h850 is the old rule of thumb I've been taught. You can be under the h700 closed low and do very well for SN production. But yeah a bit NW also works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:36 AM, tombo82685 said: lol and the gefs mean goes further southeast. What in the literal woot. Either the op is on crack, or the lower resolution of gefs ens members just aren't picking up on something Expand I'm perplexed also and it's even further east on this run. The mean is on the Benchmark lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Incredible rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Timmy in Rochester goes from hoisting weenies on the gfs, to burning them at the stake on the gefs 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A few still way out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Seriously, the GFS and Canadian can stop going west now. Geesh. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Can see on the gefs the big uncertainty is the northern stream piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:44 AM, tombo82685 said: Can see on the gefs the big uncertainty is the northern stream piece of energy. Expand See how the northern stream energy being further east acts to kick it east. While if it digs west of it slings it more north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well this was posted earlier by BGM Blizz Given the amount of convection showing up in the models, and the streaky nature of the 6 hour QPF in the global deterministic , means that strong, deep convection is probable. Latent heat release helps build the upstream ridge and the higher resolution of the deterministic runs will calculate that better than the Ensembles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 tough to tell on early ukmet model pages but looks a good bit east of ggem and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:42 AM, TugHillMatt said: Seriously, the GFS and Canadian can stop going west now. Geesh. Lol Expand Gotta see what the Euro brings. I'm still not a buyer of the GFS slp track...ORF to Leesburg VA to MDT and over BGM to about Mt Marcy? Probably some resolution issues but ORF to NW VA is a NW track over VA and then NNE. Weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:42 AM, TugHillMatt said: Seriously, the GFS and Canadian can stop going west now. Geesh. Lol Expand agreed ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:36 AM, tombo82685 said: lol and the gefs mean goes further southeast. What in the literal woot. Either the op is on crack, or the lower resolution of gefs ens members just aren't picking up on something Expand BGM mentioned that possibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There is not 1 gfs member that takes the track of the gfs op. They are all east. Either their resolution and physics can't see something or gfs wonk. Leaning towards the gefs being wonk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:47 AM, wolfie09 said: Well this was posted earlier by BGM Given the amount of convection showing up in the models, and the streaky nature of the 6 hour QPF in the global deterministic , means that strong, deep convection is probable. Latent heat release helps build the upstream ridge and the higher resolution of the deterministic runs will calculate that better than the Ensembles. Expand Whatever plays out this system will be instructive regarding the use of ensembles... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ukie goes up i95 then over albany, tad east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah that's an awesome track lol Yet to see one though haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Feels like getting a storm to ride right up the Apps is like rolling a marble along the top of a triangular prism. It just really wants to fall off to one side (into the Atlantic and over the benchmark) or the other (Jamestown). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:57 AM, PerintonMan said: Feels like getting a storm to ride right up the Apps is like rolling a marble along the top of a triangular prism. It just really wants to fall off to one side (into the Atlantic and over the benchmark) or the other (Jamestown). Expand Well said ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gonna need some luck to be under that deform band lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 3:46 AM, Buffalo Bumble said: Seeing as how Buffalo’s greatest Miller A snowstorm was the fabled Appalachian Spine Runner back on January 23, 1827 when 8.2” of snow fell I sadly have to pass on the model runs showing anything over 12” in WNY. Expand What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 3:46 AM, Buffalo Bumble said: Seeing as how Buffalo’s greatest Miller A snowstorm was the fabled Appalachian Spine Runner back on January 23, 1827 when 8.2” of snow fell I sadly have to pass on the model runs showing anything over 12” in WNY. Expand This is false. March 2008 was a Miller A that brought 2 feet to WNY. 30"+ to Holiday Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS snowfall spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This whole storms don’t ride up the apps feels a little overstated these days. The apps honestly aren’t a giant geographic impediment when compared to the dynamics of the Eastern seaboard; nor are they wide enough to have a super significant impact on the track. Plenty of storms can overcome that and ride more or less up them. I feel like every other year we say “storms don’t ride up the apps” and then three days later a storm rides directly up the apps. I guess all I’m saying is a perfect WNY track is still in play. I’m officially pretty excited with a lot the consensus this far out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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