sferic Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This will be keeping many folks up late for the next several nights! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon is SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I still think we could see this thing slide as far as 2 weenies east or west at this point. Expecting the wild swing one way or another here soon to get everybody all up in a tizzy. This is going to be fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Icon is SE Maybe just slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That's a much safer ICON run than 18Z showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah. Misses far WNY completely. Have a feeling we’ll be seeing more of this tonight. Back out of the bullseye. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Waffle waffle icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. Misses far WNY completely. Have a feeling we’ll be seeing more of this tonight. Back out of the bullseye. I think it's very similar to what the Euro was showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 tpv stronger this run compressing hgts field. Also less northern stream involvement which has been the main culprit for swinging this north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Seeing as how Buffalo’s greatest Miller A snowstorm was the fabled Appalachian Spine Runner back on January 23, 1827 when 8.2” of snow fell I sadly have to pass on the model runs showing anything over 12” in WNY. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon made it a much smaller storm as well. That could definitely happen in the cold sector if there's banding like it's showing. I really do want as many of us to cash in as possible, so the more "spread the love" the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Seeing as how Buffalo’s greatest Miller A snowstorm was the fabled Appalachian Spine Runner back on January 23, 1827 when 8.2” of snow fell I sadly have to pass on the model runs showing anything over 12” in WNY. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Whats funny, is thats what the 18z euro was doing as well with the tpv. Then the eps came in and were amped as all hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 When the models have come this far west with a system in a day, we rarely see them go back the opposite way to "out to sea." With cutters, they will jump hundreds of miles west day after day. So, I see this as perhaps a few hops east over the next couple days...but enough to keep us well in the game. Perhaps that's my inner , but just my obs. of the models over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gfs destroys western ny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS is beautiful for far Eastern Ohio....very nervous this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs destroys western ny The GFS's stubborness all of a sudden makes me a bit nervous. Once it has locked in this season, it has done a fine job. I would like to see it bump back to the east a bit more for us in Central and Eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1:10 Ratios, its actually further NW then 18z. Very strange as the 18z GEFS were so far SE. The GEFS have been farther SE than every single run of the OP with the OP being the NW outlier. Very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 With ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Didn't the GFS used to have an Eastern bias? They must have fixed that with the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ggem looks just like the gfs, over hagerstown MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Didn't the GFS used to have an Eastern bias? They must have fixed that with the updates. yea, progressive. Now it's to robust with qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. Misses far WNY completely. Have a feeling we’ll be seeing more of this tonight. Back out of the bullseye. Yeah this was basically the scenario I predicted in the other thread. Many, many days/runs to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: ggem looks just like the gfs, over hagerstown MD Those rates on the GGEM are insane, what causes that? I've never seen those colors here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GGEM heads up to Syracuse. Just like last years storm this might be a Toronto special by the time were done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Those rates on the GGEM are insane, what causes that? I've never seen those colors here. well its the leading edge of the waa slamming into the cold dense air. Also, on the gfs and probably ggem you guys are on the perfect side of the 700mb low track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'm a bit surprised that (looking at h500) with s/w 3 acting as a kicker and not merging or phasing with s/w 2 that the slp is that strong and on the coast or inland a bit. I'd have thought opposite would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GGEM heads up to Syracuse. Just like last years storm this might be a Toronto special by the time were done with it. That would be one hell of a storm for rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those rates on the GGEM are insane, what causes that? I've never seen those colors here. also, thats not snow those colors, its IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now