hazwoper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: Hopefully we can thump for 2-3 hours, that’s all we have left to cling to. you'll get 30 mins and like it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 New NAM says .5 to one hour of snow, it's like being being repeatedly kicked in the groin by Mike Tyson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, hazwoper said: you'll get 30 mins and like it! I know At least we were out of this thing before we were ever in it. Nothing worse than getting the rug pulled out from under you in the final 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Mix to Johnstown this is like Tom Brady throwing 6 touchdowns Sunday it's total humiliation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I know At least we were out of this thing before we were ever in it. Nothing worse than getting the rug pulled out from under you in the final 24hrs. We never really had a rug to begin with...maybe a drop cloth which is sad. Temps starting to drop. Down to 37F from low 40s not that long ago. Thinking 12-14F for tonight's low which would be lowest of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 so far so good with my first call 24 hours later. Many models are tuning in to this scenario for the LV. My totals seem a little high but I guess that is what my second call will iron out tomorrow night. The third and final call will be Sat night Nam Run. Additional issues I see popping up now in the models: 1. More sleet at the mid levels are becoming an issue in all of the models. 2. The dry slot is still near or over the LV affecting snow totals before the changeover to sleet/frizzle. The front end thump maybe just a speed bump if the dry slot kicks our ass.. 3. If the wrap around snow does not come to fruition as the low races to the north because of the dry slot, then blowing snow will be curtailed as the sleet and frizzle put the "icing on the cake" to prevent blowing and drifting. Other than thundersnow, I really want to see howling blowing snow that causes drifting as it is a rarity in these parts from this event 4. lastly this inland runner could still go east by 50 miles or so by tomorrow night bringing a lot of happy faces to the I-95 people. Just have to model watch, especially the SREF and NAM runs as they are just outside their model trustworthiness right now. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ My second call this evening for this storm in the LV is by lowering my expectations of total snowfall to 4-6 inches under a winter weather advisory (Cannot meet the 6 inch winter storm warning criteria) then a changeover to one inch or more of sleet then to freezing rain .2 and then plain rain .4. Plain and simple gamut of wintry crap for sure for sunday night All of my previous concerns are still in play from my first call will be considered for incorporation of my final call tomorrow evening. The high winds from the expansive wind field with the double barrell low is concerning to me right now as that is a rarity in our area as well as in delay in the "kicker short wave from the Canada arriving late to the party which then may force the lp located off the SNJ coast to slowly become the primary with increased snowfall accumulations in the wrap around snowfall. Wind gusts over 65 mph will force the NWS in issuing a high wind warning in our region and occasionally near whiteout conditions in the wrap around snowfall is a distinct possibility. I simply call this the "Sandy" of the 2022 with the many power outages and tree felling throughout NJ especially as the soils will be super saturated from the quick thaw and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ukie went all in to the west (I don't think the storm is going to go that far west but it will depending on the digging trough for where it will go). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here’s what the 18z GFS will get right: very little front end frozen. Here’s what the 18z GFS will get wrong: the idea there will be wrap-around frozen. Oh well, the weekend is here. Time to drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 31f/dp27 wc25, Im guessing a few inches In Berks before the mix with sleet then rain, not really counting on backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 DT's first call map out in 15 minutes this should be nationally televised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: DT's first call map out in 15 minutes this should be nationally televised What was the map he posted yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What was the map he posted yesterday? First guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What was the map he posted yesterday? First guess yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Ch6 at noon accumulation map. May be a little high as warm air seems eager to rush in fast/early... 44F/Windy Hard to believe Ch6/Cecily still going w/this for the 6pm news. Ch10 is similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 No changes with DT's map hehe, still 2 miles from the 6" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: No changes with DT's map hehe, still 2 miles from the 6" line Can't remember DT with a lot of forecasting success in recent winters....he used to be really good. I think he is like JB - tough for him to move off a forecast once it is out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 More chances ahead fellas. We move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Mt. Holly's (post-) 5pm call - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 00z NAM is a complete wreck... 24F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Mt. Holly's (post-) 5pm call - Better all rain or a washout, than a slop fest that freezes. IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Mix to Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Might as well post this here too since Philly is mentioned. From 1972 until the end of 2003 I was on the West Coast, so don't have a good memory of the great storms I missed, obviously. The first one I remember since moving back is a nice Miller B(?) in Jan 2005. But there was a great storm in November 1950, and all we got in Jersey City was rain and no power. "The Great Appalachian Blizzard". Other storms behaved similarly, like one I remember in November 1953, where we got an inch of snow before it changed, but Philly got maybe 7". These storms cut too, although the synoptics may have differed. All of these storms have meteorological interest, regardless of how much snow they produce. - As long as I can get to the dentist on Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 39 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 00z NAM is a complete wreck... 24F well if the NAM verfies, there are going to be a lot of snow weenie suicides that's for sure. I can't even describe how awful the NAM is for snow lovers in PA. State College went from a foot to a few inches. Rain all the way to Syracuse after this deep cold is unreal. I have a meme just for tonights NAM Run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Mix to Buffalo And on Monday, all we wanted was a 300 mile shift west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, JTA66 said: And on Monday, all we wanted was a 300 mile shift west and some dude told me to seek therapy if I thought it would come close to the coast...1500 miles later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here's hoping tsunami data gets ingested into 18Z models and we get that 250 mile shift east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Any thoughts about the Lehigh Valley? Thanks !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. There is no way that will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 28 minutes ago, hazwoper said: There is no way that will verify Agreed 100% - if I were forecasting for my area I would say at most 2" and likely not even an inch of snow and IP before a quick change to rain....but I am just a simple hobbyist! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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