Hurricane Agnes Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 WSWs, WWAs , Wind Advisories are up around the CWA - Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 258 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 PAZ054-055-160900- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.220116T2300Z-220117T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0003.220116T2300Z-220117T1700Z/ Carbon-Monroe- Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg 258 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Carbon and Monroe. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to noon EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to start as snow before changing to a wintry mix and eventually freezing rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 258 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 DEZ001-MDZ012-PAZ070-101>104-160900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.220116T2300Z-220117T0500Z/ New Castle-Kent MD-Delaware-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery- Including the cities of Wilmington, Chestertown, Media, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, and Lansdale 258 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to start as snow before quickly changing to a wintry mix and eventually changing to all rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Quote Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 300 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-160900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WI.Y.0001.220116T2300Z-220117T1100Z/ Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth- Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest 300 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ Johnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I was out running some errands this evening and saw a hazy moon through the high clouds…a “snow moon”, I thought. If this were 100 years ago, a time before wx models and satellites, I’d be convinced a snow storm was on the way given the temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I was out running some errands this evening and saw a hazy moon through the high clouds…a “snow moon”, I thought. If this were 100 years ago, a time before wx models and satellites, I’d be convinced a snow storm was on the way given the temps. Full Wolf moon coming up. 18z Euro gives a little something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I was out running some errands this evening and saw a hazy moon through the high clouds…a “snow moon”, I thought. If this were 100 years ago, a time before wx models and satellites, I’d be convinced a snow storm was on the way given the temps. Same here, also saw some guys playing ice hockey on that little pond off Handcock past S Main Street heading toward N Wales. Surprised it was frozen solid but I guess it isn't that deep and the recent temps.... 14F at 8:45pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Mt. Holly's 5 pm hazards - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:53 PM, Albedoman said: so far so good with my first call 24 hours later. Many models are tuning in to this scenario for the LV. My totals seem a little high but I guess that is what my second call will iron out tomorrow night. The third and final call will be Sat night Nam Run. Additional issues I see popping up now in the models: 1. More sleet at the mid levels are becoming an issue in all of the models. 2. The dry slot is still near or over the LV affecting snow totals before the changeover to sleet/frizzle. The front end thump maybe just a speed bump if the dry slot kicks our ass.. 3. If the wrap around snow does not come to fruition as the low races to the north because of the dry slot, then blowing snow will be curtailed as the sleet and frizzle put the "icing on the cake" to prevent blowing and drifting. Other than thundersnow, I really want to see howling blowing snow that causes drifting as it is a rarity in these parts from this event 4. lastly this inland runner could still go east by 50 miles or so by tomorrow night bringing a lot of happy faces to the I-95 people. Just have to model watch, especially the SREF and NAM runs as they are just outside their model trustworthiness right now. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ My second call this evening for this storm in the LV is by lowering my expectations of total snowfall to 4-6 inches under a winter weather advisory (Cannot meet the 6 inch winter storm warning criteria) then a changeover to one inch or more of sleet then to freezing rain .2 and then plain rain .4. Plain and simple gamut of wintry crap for sure for sunday night All of my previous concerns are still in play from my first call will be considered for incorporation of my final call tomorrow evening. The high winds from the expansive wind field with the double barrell low is concerning to me right now as that is a rarity in our area as well as in delay in the "kicker short wave from the Canada arriving late to the party which then may force the lp located off the SNJ coast to slowly become the primary with increased snowfall accumulations in the wrap around snowfall. Wind gusts over 65 mph will force the NWS in issuing a high wind warning in our region and occasionally near whiteout conditions in the wrap around snowfall is a distinct possibility. I simply call this the "Sandy" of the 2022 with the many power outages and tree felling throughout NJ especially as the soils will be super saturated from the quick thaw and heavy rain. Final call lowered my snow/sleet totals to 3-5 inches of snow/sleet in the LV. The wind fields have also been lowered to 40-55 mph wind gusts. Still expect about an inch of snow on the wrap around by Monday night. The big issue, lots of wrecks around the area tomorrow evening as the roads become quickly snow covered. Treating them will not help much in the first few hours as the snow will not melt right away. Otherwise the slush will refreeze Monday night as the roads will be too wet to completely dry out from the winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhotdog Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Look at the moisture coming out of the gulf coming right at us. This site should be rocking right now. Instead 90% is rain. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, jhotdog said: Look at the moisture coming out of the gulf coming right at us. This site should be rocking right now. Instead 90% is rain. WTF Sometimes when I think about all the things that have to go right, I’m amazed it ever snows here at all. But even though we’re on the sidelines for snow with this event, the next 36-48 hours are still going to be pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 FWIW, GFS snow totals ticked east just a skosh on the 0Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Glenn just now, 11pm, going nuts w/the warm air crashing in...even into the far burbs. Windy tomorrow night (My trash put out night )....I see 2hrs tops snow then changeover. 11F currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Mt. Holly expanded the WWA into Philly and some areas east (into Bucks and Mercer/Somerset Counties NJ) with the early morning update - Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 315 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 NJZ015-PAZ071-106-162100- /O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.220116T2100Z-220117T0300Z/ Mercer-Philadelphia-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Trenton, Philadelphia, Morrisville, and Doylestown 315 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Mercer. In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia and Lower Bucks. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to start as snow before quickly changing to a wintry mix and eventually changing to all rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 An inch of ice? Surely not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: An inch of ice? Surely not. Who's calling for an inch of ice? Mt. Holly says up to a tenth...with up to an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: An inch of ice? Surely not. You won't even get an hour of frozen precip...may be above freezing when it starts. 7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 You would think a big snowstorm is coming for the coast based off the radar and the temperature outside. This track is really rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 WPC's latest - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The only interest I have locally at this point is if we can get some wrap around snow shower tomorrow am. They rarely work out, but the models have been hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: The only interest I have locally at this point is if we can get some wrap around snow shower tomorrow am. They rarely work out, but the models have been hinting at it. Sounds cool but it will probably be too warm to matter/stick... 10F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Sounds cool but it will probably be too warm to matter/stick... 10F Yeah, no stickage. Just hoping to see flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Up to 3" snow here tonight (KDYL) then plain rain by midnight. A burst of snow in the morning Monday....maybe a quick coating. Then all eyes turn to the end of the week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I'm in the car now doing last second errands, headed to Erie PA. Really hoping to exceed 20 inches with les combined. Winds should be good too. Hopefully get hit hard and then come home and track a Philly hit! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I'm in the car now doing last second errands, headed to Erie PA. Really hoping to exceed 20 inches with les combined. Winds should be good too. Hopefully get hit hard and then come home and track a Philly hit! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12z mesos are coming in much snowier N&W of Philly. Might have to up the forecast to 2-4” or 3-5” for the Lehigh Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: I'm in the car now doing last second errands, headed to Erie PA. Really hoping to exceed 20 inches with les combined. Winds should be good too. Hopefully get hit hard and then come home and track a Philly hit! Good luck! Post pics if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 With this cold, I don't get how we are not going to see some icing out of this (a few hours). I understand the high is moving and what not, but what about the ground temperature? Sorry for the weenie-ish post, I just want to be educated on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snowing? Probably "ocean effect" snow. 3k NAM shows it, although this frame is for 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 12z mesos are coming in much snowier N&W of Philly. Might have to up the forecast to 2-4” or 3-5” for the Lehigh Valley. I agree but I hope that is not all sleet mixing in too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: With this cold, I don't get how we are not going to see some icing out of this (a few hours). I understand the high is moving and what not, but what about the ground temperature? Sorry for the weenie-ish post, I just want to be educated on this. That's my thought as well. Any type of liquid precip would freeze on contact on untreated surfaces (like a car for instance) and it would take some time for "warm" rain to melt that. Nothing worse than having a layer of water on top of ice (unless you like following a zamboni). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: That's my thought as well. Any type of liquid precip would freeze on contact on untreated surfaces (like a car for instance) and it would take some time for "warm" rain to melt that. Nothing worse than having a layer of water on top of ice (unless you like following a zamboni). Two reasons we won’t see much icing. 1. Screaming SE wind will scour away all low level cold quickly and 2. Latent heat release from heavy rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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