ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like a storm from yesteryear. Snow to rain with some front end thumps. Of course this will change a few times between now and Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like the buck west stopped at least with the 18z suite. The GEFS are drool worthy for some in the subforum: Definite lean to the se with the ull. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll throw the Ukie in - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I guess it's going to be quiet around here except for the upper LV folks. I don't really see this trending anywhere, the dynamics aren't set up to make this an event for PHL/DE/NJ. A little shift could get some folks a little something interesting to pay attention to though. Stay safe friends. Good luck Ralph. -RSC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I guess it's going to be quiet around here except for the upper LV folks. I don't really see this trending anywhere, the dynamics aren't set up to make this an event for PHL/DE/NJ. A little shift could get some folks a little something interesting to pay attention to though. Stay safe friends. Good luck Ralph. -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Y'all know rsc is a sock right, rockem sockem connection..? Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Improvements on the ICON track fwiw. GEFS look amazing....textbook. Lost all the western members. BIG changes coming with today's runs. Buckle up: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Improvements on the ICON track fwiw. GEFS look amazing....textbook. Lost all the western members. BIG changes coming with today's runs. Buckle up: I dont know, this feels like the upgraded OP handling things well and lower resolution GEFS struggling like old times. Anyone remember the GEFS and Dec 16/17 last year? Pepperidge farms remembers...I'm always wrong though. I'm just hoping theres someone who gets 2 feet on the models as we get closer because I plan to chase 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Massive difference's between the 12z NAM @ 84 hours and the 06z GFS @ 90 hours. NAM is about 7 MB weaker and 200 miles further south. 06z GFS jumped about 50 miles east as well from 00z. Start of a trend towards the east like the ensembles? Still a lot of time for big changes. There's no way 95 stays snow the whole storm but if it trends to a track like the ensembles, it should be mostly frozen. Would be a ton of sleet I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 850 low has been looking progressively better which can be good to look at if this may occluded and stack. Get this to trend under us and boom: This system has large amounts of moisture both Gulf and Atlantic. Someone is going to get walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Changes at the surface as the tick S and E is on. The low wants to be East as you can see in the bagginess. GFS did this yesterday and keeps adjusting that zone East. Track went from Greenville to Philly when the op was showing it going Greenville to Harrisburg. Then it made an adjustment. GFS 12Z looks like it wants to do this again today with notable weakness East of Henlopen. You can even see a closed surface circulation here from 12z: At 6z this weakness was carving a route thru New Castle: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 More than 72 hours to go...just a few more ticks east, please. We'll still taint, just hoping to maximize frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: More than 72 hours to go...just a few more ticks east, please. We'll still taint, just hoping to maximize frozen. Funny because speaking with someone earlier, they were "impressed that the weather people nailed this 5 days out". Mind you, this is someone who only watches the news. Well, they do say the big ones are sniffed out early, so there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: More than 72 hours to go...just a few more ticks east, please. We'll still taint, just hoping to maximize frozen. Check this out. Look at the location of where it depicts the low. GEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A Birds playoff game at 1pm then some sort of winter weather at night along w/additional playoff games is a win-win event even if it eventually changes to rain...still some time for east movement off the coast. 44F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Check this out. Look at the location of where it depicts the low. GEFS: Perfect spot. This will not be nailed down till Tommor night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z Euro seems to have gone way west (the 6z not in range from how they do their runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The tracking has been a tedious affair with this one. We don't get many of these inland huggers the last twenty years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RedSky said: The tracking has been a tedious affair with this one. We don't get many of these inland huggers the last twenty years. I despise these storms. I'll probably be somewhere between Pitt and buffalo, could change of course, hoping it's more of a BGM chase 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here's some eye candy from NCEP's CFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 As a note about this storm regardless of p-type, the full moon is Monday so the tides will be running high and any winds that mixed down can exacerbate flooding along the coast and other waterways. Could be a LV "drought buster" (although it looks like it is a fast mover). Here was Mt. Holly's take last evening - WPC yesterday - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NWS forecast for a chance of snow after 1pm Sunday is giving a clue. These often start faster than projected and with less virga, we may get snow in here before dark Sunday. Thinking snow on Sunday from 3pm-9pm with obviously earlier changeover the further SE you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 When’s our next storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: NWS forecast for a chance of snow after 1pm Sunday is giving a clue. These often start faster than projected and with less virga, we may get snow in here before dark Sunday. Thinking snow on Sunday from 3pm-9pm with obviously earlier changeover the further SE you go. This thing must be truckin. Last I heard (yesterday?) start time was mid evening or so... Balmy 47F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 0z Euro seems to have gone way west (the 6z not in range from how they do their runs). lol look at that thing just meandering around, reminds me of the path i'd take trying to walk home in college after a night at the balloon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, MacChump said: lol look at that thing just meandering around, reminds me of the path i'd take trying to walk home in college after a night at the balloon LOL he's crying in his beer too after he laughed at the GFS losing the hoochie mama storm and has now joined him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looking at the 84hr NAM (yeah yeah, I know), I 'm wondering if this will be more a severe wx threat than a winter storm threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Welp. We went from a little hope of snow this morning to a s**t show this afternoon. Yikes... In all seriousness I just hope we don't get the wind. Other than that, it's over for Philly snow wise... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Can't remember the last time the NAM kicked me in the butt like this lol Hoochie mama! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now