Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro is rolling. A touch more confluence over NE at hour 42, than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At 39, the Euro is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Of note, the Euro is slightly faster as well...not sure if that affects anything, but might mitigate the warm-nose if it is moving a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Through 66 the vort is a little faster, stronger and a south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I could be wrong, but this looks like it is going to be a big run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Of note, the Euro is slightly faster as well...not sure if that affects anything, but might mitigate the warm-nose if it is moving a bit quicker.Seems like someone thought there could be better blocking to the north with a faster system. Maybe a faster system would help the high pressure over the top stay further west?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Carvers Gap said: I could be wrong, but this looks like it is going to be a big run. I think so too but was afraid to say it, so we'll go down together, lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Substantially colder run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro kicks down the magic wall in the CMC and continues east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Live look at the Euro. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Substantially colder run. 850 was about 50 miles south of 6z track...in line with the NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here is the precip map: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That is a Miller A. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ill take this Run in a heartbeat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Snow map: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There ended up being a subtle hint of the 850 trying to jump north (a little later than CMC and way weaker reflection)...something to watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just wish this was happening tomorrow and not sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Still a slight risk of an energy transfer debacle Great Valley, but it's lessening. Having the 500/700 mb vort maxes south is a nice change! Looks like 850 and 700 (gotta watch that crap too) are colder. Time to dig up the TROWAL graphic too. Classic! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This feels like the old days lol...both globals find the system, one loses it in the 3-5 day window, just to end up refinding the storm again as we get closer. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Snow map: Wow that seems like a big shift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Snow map: As a religious man, this is my kind of porn. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So basically you have every model (NAM, RGEM, EURO, CMC, UKIE, NOGAPS, Santa's 1K Experimental) all showing an 850 centers directly over or within 25 miles of BHam @78...then Goofy up on the TN/AL border...thats a pretty good consensus. What happens after 78 is debatable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Greene is crazy. Used to have a poster over that way who posted a bunch @waltrip. Think @Math/Metis over there as well...or at least follows the wind situation at Camp Creek. Micro-climates galore in Greene Co. Hey Carver! I'm still here on the forum and just enjoy everyone's opinions and trying to learn from you all. Greene County and its topography can definitely produce a wide variety of snow outcomes across the county. It is fascinating, but frustrating when it works against you on getting snow IMBY. Wishing everyone luck as we try to reel this next system in! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If I was in southern middle back to Memphis, I would be telling the waiter "check please" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro is so tempting but I'm just not going to bite here tucked into the west side of the Appalachians. A LOT of things can severely impact snowfall from an event like this here. I'm not biting until it's go time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, waltrip said: Hey Carver! I'm still here on the forum and just enjoy everyone's opinions and trying to learn from you all. Greene County and its topography can definitely produce a wide variety of snow outcomes across the county. It is fascinating, but frustrating when it works against you on getting snow IMBY. Wishing everyone luck as we try to reel this next system in! Awesome, waltrip. I always enjoy your observations over there!!! Hope all is going well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Euro is so tempting but I'm just not going to bite here tucked into the west side of the Appalachians. A LOT of things can severely impact snowfall from an event like this here. I'm not biting until it's go time. @tnweathernut's rule of thumb. Set the bar low and you will not be disappointed. I almost always subscribe to this when it comes to snowstorms at this latitude. LOL. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There's always a gamble in believing the models 12 hours out, let alone at this range. All you can do is say at this lead, they are about as good as they can get for our forum area. That said, a few years ago the Euro gave me 32 fantasy inches and the NAM 28. I got 1.5 inches as it ended. Above 2500 got 15 inches in that storm. So the thermals were barely off and it bit me hard. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now