John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Canadian went from being entirely north of almost all of Tennessee to making a run at breaking Nashville's all time storm record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A good 100 mile or so shift on the Canadian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z GEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just a slight difference in the Canadian vs GEFS for Nashville and West TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Part of reason it looks like GEFS cut totals, was so.e member jumped far enough south that north precip goes south of the area. Definitely has a greater spread in outcomes now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 No way that clown map of the GFS is right here,to much WAA,that is not all snow in Mid Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Any clue why the models are having so a hard time with this? Matter of fact, seems like they've been struggling for the last year or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Any clue why the models are having so a hard time with this? Matter of fact, seems like they've been struggling for the last year or two Looks more or less tilted,its why you see all these wild jumps here to there.Models are having a hard time trying to pin point where the actual low is going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: No way that clown map of the GFS is right here,to much WAA,that is not all snow in Mid Tn The big clown is the Canadian. It developed a heavy deform band over the midstate and just went great guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 UKIE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What I find funny is everybody around my area is convinced we are getting a 93 repeat, and all I can do is shake my head and ask where the heck they are getting that information from. Interesting enough a local news station was saying up to a foot is possible which threw me aback, the models don't seem to be in any agreement right now and honestly I don't think we will know for sure to right before the event starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro more progressive, South and East vs 12z through 84. Frozen falling 40 and North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Another Euro haymaker. No big snow holes here. There would also be sleet in areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll take that 6 inches and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @AMZ8990 is the 6z RGEM winner: 6z GFS seemed to take a really nice energy pass: and we get a 999 low just south of Atlanta, but the 850 low still makes a run at the eastern valley. However, the 850 low has been trending SE the past 4 runs: if we could get that 850 low to round the Apps, that would be nice. But as it stands this AM, on the GFS at least, that is ne Bueno for areas that would get downsloping from the Apps and be impacted by a piece of the low trying to slide up the eastern valley. 6z GEFS looks like it tries to have a few members be straight up Miller As, but the majority are still these Miller B messes: but like Tellico said last night, those members don't quite get the precip back over the Apps. 6z NAM looks like it is a little further south than the GFS, but still sends some energy up the valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Maybe the UKIE will win this one. It's had the weirdest outcomes when compared to every other model and maybe that's the approach this system needs, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I still have my doubts with this system in regards to the warm nose. MRX went out of its way to downplay any threat. They specifically used the NAM as a reference for a non-winter event. I totally understand their trepidation with models all over the place. But the 6z NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I normally wouldn't use the NAM at range, but that is a major winter storm on 6z - ice, sleet, snow. I got up this AM, and was expecting the "poof" deal. Just looking at modeling, this is a significant winter storm north of I-40. I The NAM actually keeps the primary slp along the GOM. I do think the warm nose is going to be a problem, especially in the eastern valley. So, my expectations are low...but this looks like a mess IMBY. Let's take a minute and look at timing. In the eastern valley, the GFS warm nose moves through in the very early morning ours while it is dark. I can tell you from experience, that brings all kinds of headaches. The low passes to our southeast during the morning hours Sunday. The Euro is slightly slower. One would think the Euro would have more mixing issues....but it has less. The 6z Euro is rolling. Colder through 63. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 6z Euro through 72 is south with its precip shield through 72 which fits trends from overnight. We will see where it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah I was about to say the center of the upper level energy on the 6z Euro was ~100 miles south of 0z at hour 81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Through 75 on the 6z Euro, definitely a jog south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just looking at the energy you would think it would spawn a low near Mobile that ran up the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here's what Pivotal did with the precip. type maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pivotal's snowfall, 10:1 for the prettiest colors: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 And I understand that the 10:1 isn't realistic, but at this point I just don't care, lol. That were a run for many parts of TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So Euro/Ukie are on one side and NAM/GFS are further north at this point? I'm wondering if any model will nail this as complex as the system seems to be, how often does a system come down from the upper midwest, hit the gulf and bounce NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 And I understand that the 10:1 isn't realistic, but at this point I just don't care, lol. That were a run for many parts of TN8:1?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So Euro/Ukie are on one side and NAM/GFS are further north at this point? I'm wondering if any model will nail this as complex as the system seems to be, how often does a system come down from the upper midwest, hit the gulf and bounce NE?I don’t think they are that far apart and all of them has trended south some the last 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: 8:1? . Nary a clue. I will say that I think the 6z Euro was pretty close to having a deform band move across the state, but I don't know exactly how to recognize those this far out. But if that happened we could get higher than 10:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: So Euro/Ukie are on one side and NAM/GFS are further north at this point? I'm wondering if any model will nail this as complex as the system seems to be, how often does a system come down from the upper midwest, hit the gulf and bounce NE? 6z NAM went with the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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