ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 0z NAM non kuchera:Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: . If they are going to issue that, then they need to issue blizzard warnings above 4000' if that occurs. Will be nuts up there. May have to chase to Roan Mtn. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The models aren’t sure about it either. I understand how it happens. The strong downsloping results in an area of low pressure forming up against the foothills. If the storm gets stronger it will run up that area. If it stays weak enough, it will transfer across GA to the SC lowcountry. We want the latter to occur.Gotcha… I understand what we want, I just wasn’t sure what we were thinking ATM. Like you said, mods are all over the place and I’ve seen a Miller A and B both thrown out today. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 0z NAM non kuchera: Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk And that's with the quad state ripper: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Ok….. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Can report all liquid rain in East Brainerd. I’m pretty low in elevation though. Only around 800 ft. It is 40 here, but the trend line on my PWS is down, so it’s dropping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust Bold move, most other posters are predicting a Boom. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Looks like the low is in South Alabama . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Given downslopping, am just hopping for 2 inches in Pigeon Forge at this point. Pretty disappointing but we got 5-7" in the system a few weeks ago so it buffs out I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 New Found Gap is 27°, Ober Gatlinburg is 31°. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Snow beginning to fall in Jackson, MS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Morristown TN951 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022TNZ067-068-071-083>086-099>101-161000-Roane-Loudon-Northwest Blount-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-Including the cities of Harriman, Eagle Furnace, Rockwood,Bradbury, Fairview, Kingston, Oliver Springs, Lenoir City,Loudon, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Dayton, Evensville,Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City, Big Spring, Athens,Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater, Madisonville,Bullet Creek, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Tasso, Conasauga,Archville, Benton, Parksville, and Reliance951 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022...Wintry Weather Possible Sunday For The Southern TennesseeValley...A potent storm system will move through the region tonightthrough Sunday night. This system will produce light snowfallacross the southern Tennessee Valley on Sunday which could yieldmeasurable snowfall less an inch total. Some of the locallyhigher elevation areas could see slightly higher snowfall totalsof 1 to 2 inches, which is expected to remain isolated. Thisprecipitation could present some minor travel impacts across theregion on Sunday and Sunday night.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: Looks like the low is in South Alabama . IInverted trough it doesnt seem stacked ATM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Convection in the Gulf of Mexico looks vertical to me instead of parallel to the coast line. Hopefully it stays that way and doesn’t race too far out in front to the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 37 here now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 38 here and rain with what seems like partly melted flakes mixed in just started here.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 35 and a cold rain near Falls Creek Falls. Not seeing any flakes yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Still moisture back into eastern OK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I know I’m wrong, but I think we are going to be surprised by this storm. I had the same feeling with the 2014 storm. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 National Weather Service Nashville TN 809 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Light rain continues to drift northward at update time this evening, blanketing a good portion of Middle TN. Temperatures for almost everyone are in the upper 30s to low 40s, but very slowly, we`re starting to see some colder temperatures invade our far northwest counties. One or two reports of sleet have already come in from Dover and we can expect this kind of a wintry mix to continue to spread southward through the nighttime hours, especially as the rain evaporates and helps cool the air column across the mid-state. I have no reason to change anything from the earlier forecast package. Temperatures and PoPs are on track. Latest hi-res guidance continues to show pockets of heavy snowfall tomorrow as we deal with banding and even the potential for some convective snow showers. This will beef up snowfall rates to 2+ inches/hr and likely give several areas quite a bit of snow. While the Plateau still looks to bear the brunt of this winter weather system, there are indications that several spots south of I-40 will see more snow than we`re currently forecasting. Where these heavy pockets will occur is the main question. Messaging hasn`t changed from last night: don`t focus on amounts. Wintry weather, and probably quite a bit of it is going to get dumped across a good portion of the mid-state tomorrow. This is going to lead to major travel impacts and while we`re lucky Monday is a holiday, which should take many off the roads, the other half of us will be dealing with a messy situation. Monday still looks cloudy, so even if we reach into the mid-30s, without sunshine, roads are going to be bad until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I know I’m wrong, but I think we are going to be surprised by this storm. I had the same feeling with the 2014 storm. .IDK why either but I feel good about it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 0z gfs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: I know I’m wrong, but I think we are going to be surprised by this storm. I had the same feeling with the 2014 storm. . I was in Tampa Bay at that time. This could definitely surprise us. BUT actual air temps are 15-20 degrees what they were for Snomageddon 2014. For that we knew that the cold air was there but the moisture wasnt expected, Bham had never received accumulating snow at 19-20F (-7.5 to -7C) so we had 20:1 snow ratios. This time we have plenty of moisture but can the temps drop enough to make the precip stick? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I will say I’m encouraged our Low is in the gulf and not on the Florida/Alabama line. The next couple hours are important to see if the Low cuts or not. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 0z gfsWish I hadn’t of looked . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Nash NWS update seems like they see more potential South of 40 after reducing totals earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wish I hadn’t of looked . I know. LOL. Just sucks us back in. 0z on the left. 18z on the left. Literally, I have no idea what this is going to do. I am just sharing model runs. LOL. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: I was in Tampa Bay at that time. This could definitely surprise us. BUT actual air temps are 15-20 degrees what they were for Snomageddon 2014. For that we knew that the cold air was there but the moisture wasnt expected, Bham had never received accumulating snow at 19-20F (-7.5 to -7C) so we had 20:1 snow ratios. This time we have plenty of moisture but can the temps drop enough to make the precip stick? I think that poster is referring to Feb 2014, not the January 2014 traffic Armageddon. February 2014 wasn’t too different from this. The I-59 and I-75 corridors got rocked. Even had some thundersnow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Smallest raindrops possible on my way into work. Temp at 38. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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