Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, Shocker0 said:

He's just been getting rain while everyone else has been getting snow all around him

 That’s what I’m saying though, the changeover to snow for him wasn’t supposed to start until around 8pm for Batesville.  The snow line is inching its way southeast.  He should be in a good spot 

[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, Shocker0 said:

He's just been getting rain while everyone else has been getting snow all around him

I sense some foreshadowing here. . . 

[PowellVolz]

8 inches of heavy wet snow, you know that will be a beautiful sunrise there tomorrow morning!

Yes it will. Brutal on soft timber though.


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[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, dwagner88 said:

I sense some foreshadowing here. . . 

Come on Wagner, we all knew this event was gonna start out as rain.    Let’s try to keep some positive mojo going on in here.  lol 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

 That’s what I’m saying though, the changeover to snow for him wasn’t supposed to start until around 8pm for Batesville.  

Correct, the way the cold is wrapping in Memphis down to Western MS will changeover before NE AR

[dwagner88]

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Yes it will. Brutal on soft timber though.


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This actually legit worries me for the mountains around here. It will have similar impacts to an ice storm. A severe one.

[AMZ8990]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Correct, the way the cold is wrapping in Memphis down to Western MS will changeover before NE AR

Yeah man, it’s pretty neat to see it unfold.  It’s weird to see it on radar but it’s beautiful at the same time. Mother Nature is showing out with this one 

[Tucker1027]

Yes it will. Brutal on soft timber though.


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Yes, it is. I drove through the Cherokee National Forest after the storm on the 2nd aback from Cherokee and this was the scene


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[PowellVolz]

This actually legit worries me for the mountains around here. It will have similar impacts to an ice storm. A severe one.

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[Wintersnow888]

1 hour ago, Shocker0 said:

Yep, we benefit from being 150-200ft higher than town, plus further Northwest closer to the edge of the Plateau so the storms smack into us first and stick around longer. I remember in January 2016 we got around 10" with 2ft drifts in our part of the county while town ended up with 2-4" because they had mixing issues until late in the afternoon while it switched to snow here several hours earlier. I could see tomorrow play out like that, but I can also seeing it be a bust everywhere. Hopefully it isn't though, but I'm not getting my hopes up lol.

Yep, I remember that storm , it was great !!! Had to drive to Chattanooga right afterwards, and I remember being one of the few cars on the interstate, and didn't see one snowplow the whole way.......I'm hoping that everyone scores this time , especially the ones in the forum that got little or nothing last time

[Tucker1027]

Low go home your drunkzzz


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[PowellVolz]

Forecast for Mt Leconte from NWS

“Winds could gust to 75mph”

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog between 3am and 4am. Low around 26. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow before 11am, then freezing rain and sleet between 11am and noon, then snow after noon. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 31. Windy, with a southeast wind 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 25 to 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday Night:Snow, mainly before 3am. Patchy fog between 8pm and 1am. Low around 16. Wind chill values between -1 and 9. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

M.L.King Day:A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between -4 and 2. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph


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[Greyhound]

Forecast for Mt Leconte from NWS

“Winds could gust to 75mph”

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog between 3am and 4am. Low around 26. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow before 11am, then freezing rain and sleet between 11am and noon, then snow after noon. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 31. Windy, with a southeast wind 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 25 to 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday Night:Snow, mainly before 3am. Patchy fog between 8pm and 1am. Low around 16. Wind chill values between -1 and 9. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

M.L.King Day:A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between -4 and 2. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph


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Some guy hiked the closed Clingmans Dome rd to the tower this morning before 441 was shut down. Got some great pics!!! On the Smoky Mountain Hiker Trash FB page if anyone wants to take a look


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[ShawnEastTN]

Correct, the way the cold is wrapping in Memphis down to Western MS will changeover before NE AR

It's pretty fascinating areas in southern Illinois are still above freezing while western central Mississippi is below freezing. It's colder 100 miles south of Memphis than it is 100 miles north of Memphis. Here is roughly the freezing line.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Mrwolf1972]

Hrr just looks all messed up up the spine then jumps right hardly any moisture on the back side

[PowellVolz]

Forecast for Mt Leconte from NWS

“Winds could gust to 75mph”

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog between 3am and 4am. Low around 26. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow before 11am, then freezing rain and sleet between 11am and noon, then snow after noon. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 31. Windy, with a southeast wind 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 25 to 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday Night:Snow, mainly before 3am. Patchy fog between 8pm and 1am. Low around 16. Wind chill values between -1 and 9. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

M.L.King Day:A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between -4 and 2. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph


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How is this not Blizzard criteria?


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[dwagner88]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

How is this not Blizzard criteria?


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It is. I suspect their argument is that the actual blizzard conditions will be so isolated that it doesn’t make sense to issue the product. Same logic they use down here to leave Signal and Lookout Mountains without any winter weather products.

[Wintersnow888]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
542 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

To put it mildly, a very complex winter weather system is moving our
way. Upper level low is currently located over the Red River just
west of the Arklatex. This feature will continue to deepen and
intensify through Monday as it tracks across central Al and central
MS before it takes a more northeastward turn. The associated surface
low is located well to the east of the upper level feature but this
displacement should decrease with time. Orientation of the surface
low does reveal some n-s inverted troughing which does support
warmer air in the lower levels. This trend continues through a big
portion of tonight across our area. This leads me to believe that
the the snowfall we are going to get across the mid state will hinge
largely on the approach and passage of the 500 mb trough. At that
point, the airmass will sufficiently cool down to support all snow.
As we look toward the west we can already see this happening across
Ar. Its in the 40s with rain over eastern AR and in the upper 20s to
lower 30s across the west where the impacts from the approaching
upper low are now felt.

With the above said, our upcoming snow amounts will trend down
slightly except across the Plateau. With the added elevation that
the plateau brings, the warm layer in the first few thousand feet
will much more shallow. Furthermore, the upper low and associated
trough will be tilting more negatively as the deformation zone
reaches that area. It is for this reason, the Plateau snow amount
forecast will be on the impressive side with 5-10" expected.
Furthermore, CSI parameters are in play to where a brief period of
thunder snow cannot be ruled out. This would of course enhance snow
fall amounts for that area even more.

With decision time at hand, the trickiest part of this forecast is
forecasting the amounts west of the Plateau. Hrrr and the Euro
continue to show potentially higher snow band totals. The changeover
to snow occurs quickly with heavy snowfall rates of 2 inches per
hour. GFS...NAM and NBM solutions are much less aggressive with
totals. So. have decided to go with a winter storm warning for all
of the mid state except the far northwest which is where an advisory
will be issued. Expected snow totals are as follows...5 to 10 inches
along the Cumberland plateau...2 to 5 inches for the remainder of
the mid state excluding the far northwest...1 to 3 inches in our far
northwest. The advisory will begin at 6PM this evening with snow
mixing in with the rain shortly thereafter. For the warning area,
the warning will begin at midnight with the west to east transition
of rain to a rain and snow mix overnight. Note that the Plateau will
likely begin to changeover sooner given the reasons mentioned prior.
The passage of the 500 MB upper trough axis will occur between 12Z
and 18Z. It is at this time when the coldest air will move in and
the precip will be mostly snow. Hourly rates could be rather
impressive especially along the Plateau where the axis will begin
to negatively tilt. The snow will taper off Sunday evening and along
the Plateau at that time.

Moving on, we do see another weak little system for Monday that
could bring some additional snow flurry activity to eastern areas.
But no additional accumulation is expected.

In the extended forecast...a mid week arctic cold front is expected
to move through. Surface energy will develop along the boundary and
bring some shower activity to the area. Could see some snowfall on
the back edge but nothing to be too concerned about at this point.

Looking cold behind the boundary. A clipper system could bring some
light snow to our area on Friday. Amounts look light.

For your extended temps, 40s for Tues and Wed then c older late in
the week. Its looking like 15 to 20 for lows and highs in the 30s

 

Sorry it's so long but it was interesting

 

[PowellVolz]

NWS Huntsville is reporting sleet already mixing in with a temp of 42°. I get the feeling this wasn’t planned.

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[dwagner88]

HRRR continues to pound the lower plateau counties. Lighter in the southern valley. It still really stiffs the Central Valley around TYS for some reason.

[*Flash*]

0z HRRR not terrible for I-40 but certainly continues the trend of troweling south/southeast of metro. Still a much better look than the 18z run. 

[Dsty2001]

Just don't see the low travelling in the way the HRRR is depicting it

[ShawnEastTN]

0z NAM is running looks pretty good Knox county west and south. Looks like downsloping delays precip east of Knox for a time. Out to 25.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Utvols235]

Have had some mixed precip in Red Bank. Interesting reports here already


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[John1122]

If the upper trough Nashville speaks about holds together longer, more people to the east will do better. They usually collapse when the parent low transfers. 

[Scottie16]

Strong winds out of the north in Maryville. Currently 39 at my location. 

[PowellVolz]

If the upper trough Nashville speaks about holds together longer, more people to the east will do better. They usually collapse when the parent low transfers. 

So I’m not sure if I’m the only one unsure about this but are we still expecting a energy transfer?


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[dwagner88]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

So I’m not sure if I’m the only one unsure about this but are we still expecting a energy transfer?


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The models aren’t sure about it either. I understand how it happens. The strong downsloping results in an area of low pressure forming up against the foothills. If the storm gets stronger it will run up that area. If it stays weak enough, it will transfer across GA to the SC lowcountry. We want the latter to occur.

[Tucker1027]

Nice wind from the north in Chattanooga…


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[*Flash*]

I’ll cash out on that 0z 3k NAM run. Please and thank you.