Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust

[TellicoWx]

18z NBM

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

18z NBM

Went down on totals 

[dwagner88]

Why is NBM so much stingier than all other guidance? 

[bearman]

6 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Doesn’t look like a lot. :/ 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011518&fh=34&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ov&p=sn10_acc&m=hrrr

I Would not be suprised to see Knox get screwed.  I once, in another lifetime lived in Etowah and we would regularly get more snowfall in an area wide event than did Knoxville.

[ShawnEastTN]

Why is NBM so much stingier than all other guidance? 

Yeah I don't get it, maybe it'll verify and it will be the crowning achievement in modeling, but I think so much emphasis on climatological norms and bias will eventually lead to it being vastly wrong on a storm maybe this one, maybe not but eventually.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Man this sucker really seems to be digging to me. At the latitude of LA's northern border and still heading SE. 

 

It does look like it is starting to make the turn, but you tell me. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong water vapor level, but it looks SW of where the 18z 3km NAM has it. 

The above gif starts at 1 PM and is in hourly increments. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just looking at the run to run trends on the vort, it looks like the NAM is maybe playing catch up:

Watch the leading edge of the vorticity run further into the FL panhandle each run

[Reb]

Might try to get a hotel in a jackpot zone tonight. Crossville?

[fountainguy97]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Man this sucker really seems to be digging to me. At the latitude of LA's northern border and still heading SE. 

 

It does look like it is starting to make the turn, but you tell me. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong water vapor level, but it looks SW of where the 18z 3km NAM has it. 

The above gif starts at 1 PM and is in hourly increments. 

Definitely seems to still be SSE vs SE. this is when the HRRR comes in handy with the hourly runs. In a game of inches an extra hour of digging is miles and miles of differences. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'd say Crossville is about as close as you could get and have a hotel. Maybe @Shocker0 or @Wintersnow888 have some ideas? 

[Shocker0]

1 minute ago, Reb said:

Might try to get a hotel in a jackpot zone tonight. Crossville?

Monterey or Jamestown are usually better than Crossville. Or NW Cumberland County is good but no hotels here other than a campground on Exit 311

[Shocker0]

Just now, Shocker0 said:

Monterey or Jamestown are usually better than Crossville. Or NW Cumberland County is good but no hotels here other than a campground on Exit 311

Or stay at the hotel right off Exit 317 and drive to exit 311 after the snow as there is almost always more there. Monterey is Exits 301 and 300 and has a nice hotel in town though (Bethel Inn & Suites)

[TellicoWx]

18z NAM crushes HUN

[Mrwolf1972]

[dwagner88]

NAM is pretty darn consistent down here. Divide the above map by 2 due to ratio issues.

[fountainguy97]

@Holston_River_Rambler check this out.  Notice How the hrrr has steadily ticked more positively tilted over the day.  Wonder if this is in relation to the 500mb vort.  This could be what is helping easterne areas and getting the deform band across the valley.  It's still ticking more vertical each run.

 

I would assume the less tilted this becomes the further east that deform band ends up. 

 

[Reb]

6 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Or stay at the hotel right off Exit 317 and drive to exit 311 after the snow as there is almost always more there. Monterey is Exits 301 and 300 and has a nice hotel in town though (Bethel Inn & Suites)

There is a room available there, going to try and convince the wife to do a little getaway 

[*Flash*]

At this point, I lean more HRRR/RAP than NAM. I think the NAM is undermining the digging and perhaps overdoing amounts. Hoping for a slight NW correction. 

[dwagner88]

No expansion of the WWA with the afternoon update. The higher elevations of Hamilton now have warning criteria snow forecasted and zero winter products out.

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, dwagner88 said:

No expansion of the WWA with the afternoon update. The higher elevations of Hamilton now have warning criteria snow forecasted and zero winter products out.

I don’t think they’ve finished the afternoon update yet

[*Flash*]

OHX just issued a WSW for areas W/NW of BNA; I honestly don't understand why they went 'pink' for any county north of 40 and west of 65. Thoughts? 

[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

I don’t think they’ve finished the afternoon update yet

Slides on the homepage updated. Chattanooga went from >0.5 to 0.5”. I’ll get my shovel ready.

[Shocker0]

19 minutes ago, Reb said:

There is a room available there, going to try and convince the wife to do a little getaway 

Awesome! Monterey or Crossville? Monterey looks to do better than Crossville with this storm and that's typical ins almost every winter storm here. But with them being further north and west it may help cut down on mixing issues there. I just hope it isn't a bust all around as there is potential for it with this system for sure. But that looks to be one of the more solid areas as every model keeps spitting out 6-12"+ it seems.

[TellicoWx]

Not sure if this has any effect what so ever, but alot of the Hires models ingest data from PWS networks and other real time data. Thus is from my PWS, recording the pressure wave from the Tonga explosion, would have been around time 12z to 18z data was being ingested.

[PowellVolz]

WWA for Knoxville north up the valley

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[PowellVolz]

Not sure if this has any effect what so ever, but alot of the Hires models ingest data from PWS networks and other real time data. Thus is from my PWS, recording the pressure wave from the Tonga explosion, would have been around time 12z to 18z data was being ingested.

What are you getting at here?


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[Runman292]

Winter Storm Warning for Anderson County, but i feel that is more for Clinton, Rocky Top, ect than it is for Oak Ridge.

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

What are you getting at here?


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May mean absolutely nothing, just the data that was being ingested was corrupted from the explosion...small changes can have a compounding effect as time goes out.

[ShawnEastTN]

Not sure if this has any effect what so ever, but alot of the Hires models ingest data from PWS networks and other real time data. Thus is from my PWS, recording the pressure wave from the Tonga explosion, would have been around time 12z to 18z data was being ingested.

My PWS caught it also! Didn't think about that data being ingested. Mine is also part of the NWS PWS program.

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[PowellVolz]

MRX for my point and click only has a mix or changeover for a couple of hours now. They also lowered my high temp to 35 and said temps would be dropping through the day.


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