ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I have this feeling I’m going to do well if temps are not an issue. To my knowledge, downsloping has never been an issue NW of 40. When we get those spring mountain wave events, it’s nothing for Sevierville to be 10-15° warmer than me. .Yes!! Exactly! This is what I'm saying. Usually that downsloping warmth doesn't bleed very far west or NW. Down this way it doesn't generally bleed out of Blount county into Knox or Loudon, and the angle I don't think will have much of Monroe county involved maybe far northeast Monroe near Blount line.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I honestly think MRX should at least issue WWA for Knox, Loudon south. So much modeling showing that area getting potentially plastered with heavy snow potentially warning criteria snow. The only reason they don't is climatology suggests that shouldn't be the case but it wouldn't be the first time the western great valley and southern great valley score in a scenario like this. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk They may be apprehensive after social media "roasted" them for the busted forecast of the previous system. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I have this feeling I’m going to do well if temps are not an issue. To my knowledge, downsloping has never been an issue NW of 40. When we get those spring mountain wave events, it’s nothing for Sevierville to be 10-15° warmer than me. .To clarify “do well” I’m talking 3-6”, or about 1/2 of what John might get. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Don't tell MRX this, or any reports from John or Holston. They'll say it's just solidified rain. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Hey man, I planned ahead for such circumstances, lol. I have a flizzard video from Lone Mt. State Forest: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Is it me or does it seem like downsloping has become an issue the last 5-10 years? I’m 47 and I remember growing up, Knoxville always got a little less than everyone around us but the unofficial rule of thumb was whatever Knoxville was going to get, the surrounding counties to the foothills got about double of that and from the foothills up to the GSM peaks got double of the foothills. I sometimes feel like NWS/MRX tries to out smart themselves. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: Is it me or does it seem like downsloping has become an issue the last 5-10 years? I’m 47 and I remember growing up, Knoxville always got a little less than everyone around us but the unofficial rule of thumb was whatever Knoxville was going to get, the surrounding counties to the foothills got about double of that and from the foothills up to the GSM peaks got double of the foothills. I sometimes feel like NWS/MRX tries to out smart themselves. . This, This right here is correct! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 They may be apprehensive after social media "roasted" them for the busted forecast of the previous system.Thing is I felt like they did ok, especially in my area. Truth is had all the snow that fell stuck, I would have been around 4-5”. I ended up with 2” and all of that came with that last piece of front end thump that moved up the valley and the little backside NW flow. I only saw a little bit of drizzle between the transition to the NW flow and that ended up being bad because by then the temps were 28-30°. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 44 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: Just finished my weekly Costco run an hour ago. Our Costco is over the state line into Georgia. All the main roads in N. Georgia have a heavy layer of brine. I know they are thinking ahead but it will all be washed away by the rain, even if we get any frozen precip later. Probably between 1/2"-1" of rain. I don't see how the brine will have any impacts on the roads in the event of frozen slop. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Officially at TDOT we brine unless more than 1” of rain is expected to fall. This was borderline. We will brine. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 With all the different micro-climates and downsloping we have in the valley, I have made out a little map of the Knox county. I have plotted out snow totals over the years. When you get 3 to 6 inches in your area I will most likely get half of your totals in the Cedar bluff area. This is not always the case but in a system like this it happens often enough I consider it a pattern. 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: To clarify “do well” I’m talking 3-6”, or about 1/2 of what John might get. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Officially at TDOT we brine unless more than 1” of rain is expected to fall. This was borderline. We will brine. Knox Co brined our subdivision and I’ve never seen that happen before. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z Euro says GFS may not have lost its mind...big jump in the valley 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z Euro 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yep 12 euro jumps valley totals 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Steady light snow falling here now. Can't see Cross Mountain from about 2.5 miles away. At a basketball game and recording Tennessee vs Kentucky. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Considering the issues with the valley, I think MRX should be an "upper-air equipped" forecast office. Unless something has changed, I don't think that is the case. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Considering the issues with the valley, I think MRX should be an "upper-air equipped" forecast office. Unless something has changed, I don't think that is the case.Absolutely . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So which is correct on the thermals lol...12z Euro vs 12z 3k NAM, almost identical..but different interpretation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Considering the issues with the valley, I think MRX should be an "upper-air equipped" forecast office. Unless something has changed, I don't think that is the case.Yes also honestly with so many micro climates they really should get those soundings at the very least from all major sections of the MRX region really more areas if possible, but minimum Chatt, Knox and Tri.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: So which is correct on the thermals lol...12z Euro vs 12z 3k NAM, almost identical..but different interpretation. Was the nam warm bias corrected with the latest upgrades ? It used to have about a 2c bias in this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Might be hallucinating but I swear there are a few wet flakes falling north of Chattanooga about 20 miles where I am right now driving highway 27 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So which is correct on the thermals lol...12z Euro vs 12z 3k NAM, almost identical..but different interpretation. Also keep in mind when looking at that NAM it's snowing where it's green in some areas as per point forecast soundings.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 MRX...nothing to see here...move along lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 MRX...nothing to see here...move along lolSpann said Huntsville was putting out watches later today so we will just be a hole in a sea of winter. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Ahhh the kiss of death for the valley currently filtered sunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I mean at least a WWA is warranted area wide. Not sure what they are waiting for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, dwagner88 said: I mean at least a WWA is warranted area wide. Not sure what they are waiting for. MRX is waiting on the NOWCAST lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: Spann said Huntsville was putting out watches later today so we will just be a hole in a sea of winter. . Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if they coordinate with MEG and FFC to connect the WSW area 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Temps are running 4-5° below forecast around Knoxville. Probably won’t mean much because that’s still too warm but one can hope the mods over estimated the temps. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 In their defense tho...MRX has to rank among one of the worst places to be assigned as a Met...with the 1 million different microclimates they have to deal with 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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