EastKnox Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, bearman said: It is always curious to me how MRX makes their decision to issue winter weather warning products. They always err on the side of caution when it comes to severe weather events like tornadoes and issure many warnings that never pan out. It seems like this can cause people to often disregard these warnings but with winter events they seem much more hesitant to pull the trigger. Maybe it is an issue of scale of impact? Severe weather products such as outlooks and watches are issued by the SPC in Norman, OK. MRX tends to elaborate a bit, but won’t stray from SPC guidance. MRX is responsible for warnings, but there is already severe weather occurring at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Getting a few flurries on Lone Mt. in Morgan county. I’m at about 1500 feet pretty close to the bottom of the mountain. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z NAM is a wee bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 12z NAM transfers to the coast sooner....and favors the secondary to fire earlier than it did at 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yeah, somebody may want to look at the 12z NAM if you live in E TN. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Huge improvement over the last run, I still have a feeling this storm is going to surprise us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I upgraded myself to light snow with some nickel and dime sized flakes mixed in on my drive home. It’s let up some now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yeah, the 12z was a step in the right direction. The low looked like it almost made it to the coast before popping up in the mountains. Regardless, with the low not immediately jumping to our neck of the woods, the dry slot was smaller and the temps a bit better as a result. I think if we can at least keep some moisture here the backend could work out better for eastern folks which is pretty much what the 12z shows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That was a killer deform band on the back side of the 12z NAM! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This backside band is still 36hrs out. That's still long range for hrrr. I think If we will be surprised by anything it will be that back end and the following piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Nam and last gfs want to dump 4 plus knoxville south in valley 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, the 12z was a step in the right direction. The low looked like it almost made it to the coast before popping up in the mountains. Regardless, with the low not immediately jumping to our neck of the woods, the dry slot was smaller and the temps a bit better as a result. I think if we can at least keep some moisture here the backend could work out better for eastern folks which is pretty much what the 12z shows. Yeah, was further east and the inland runner low fired earlier. Seems like it was faster. At one point the slp popped about 100 miles SE of its earlier location. At 27, you can see the slp is about 100 miles east of where it was at 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The differences in the NAM occur right after the low fires on the Panhandle (GA/FL/AL border). Above post was about MSLP. So is this one. From that point as it jogs NE, there is more of an eastward component to the low when compared to 6. Very minor adjustment with BIG consequences for the eastern valley. Could have been a hiccup or the beginning of a trend. Just going to have to watch it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z WRF-ARW has a similar trend it appears. That is two models which have come in with an eastward jog. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I like how similar the NAM and GFS look right now. That’s about the best consistency we’ve seen yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The hrr over last 6 runs is moving east with the low and totals have went up a inch in valley 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On the nam Temps are 32 33 when the snow starts easy for it to stick and accumulate might also be some big flakes and pile fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like the area of 6-7 has been expanded since last night from Nashville NWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 WRF ARW2 has the ultimate Holston snow hole: But the soundings on this model for my area show snow as the precip type when the model renders it as rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Wintersnow888 said: Looks like the area of 6-7 has been expanded since last night from Nashville NWS Oh yeah, for my area we're once again invoking the weenie rule that lets us use upstream graphics if they are more favorable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Love the bump up in Williamson County must be forecasting the deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The NMB model bumped up and inch or two or your area it looks like at 6z. Man, I have such low confidence in modeling for this storm. Thanks, CG. And I’m right there with you man. Not having uniformity along all models is nerve racking, especially when we are this close to said event. Hoping for the best while simultaneously preparing my mind for the worst, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 32 degreesSleeting here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z RGEM looks west of its 6z run. Modeling is all over the place. Nice improvement by the WRF-ARW for eastern areas along with the NAM. RGEM will likely be west of those two models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Check that, the 12z RGEM has begun to make the jump at 28 regarding mslp. Thermal profiles is a wreck for pretty much everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If there is any trend I am seeing across the ARW, RGEM, and NAM at 0z it is that the storm is slightly faster and slightly east around 24 or 27 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Clicking on some of the soundings on Pivotal, it looks like some of the precip it is rendering as rain is borderline snow. I clikced on Knoxville on this map: and got this sounding: Looks like it may just be extremely shallow boundary layer warmth and not a warm nose. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I tried that and got down to Meigs county and the soundings showed precip. type as snow Sadly it said rain in Chatt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Clicking on some of the soundings on Pivotal, it looks like some of the precip it is rendering as rain is borderline snow. I clikced on Knoxville on this map: and got this sounding: Looks like it may just be extremely shallow boundary layer warmth and not a warm nose. I get the downslope deal, but seems like modeling has really accentuated that feature more than normal. They may be right as there is not fresh, cold air in place, and maybe it has a bit more influence than normal due to marginally cold air. That track is perfect if the air mass is colder - just in between two cold shots right now which is a bummer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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