Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The HRRR caught on about 24 hours out with the fact that far eastern areas would struggle.  The RAP and 3k NAM did as well. We will see if they make any big moves tomorrow. 

We also had HP nosing down from the NW,that's big

[jaxjagman]

One thing to look at the NAM right now seems to be the strongest with the 850 low,gfs is behind that and the HRR is the weaker,thus you'd also have a weaker WAA into parts of the Valley with the weakest but who knows right now

[John1122]

The HRRR looks like it might be letting the L slip onto the other side of the Apps.  It's in SW NC at 999 with a big time deform band on the Plateau. 

[John1122]

Next hour it runs up to Clingsman Dome. super downsloping the NE areas. The downslope reaches all the way to Claiborne Co. Which would be extreme to say the least.

[John1122]

Up to Boone NC by HR 38, Plateau to Mid-state getting hit nicely. Frozen in a straight line from basically Middlesboro due south to NE Georgia and points west.

[John1122]

By 40 it's filled in precip in NE areas as frozen. The Low is about to cross into Virginia.

[John1122]

Low seemed to transfer at 42, then it moves from Central NC. NW into WVA. It's at 990 in West Virginia Sunday evening. That's a tropical storm strength. NE areas getting snow still. Low drops to 989 then starts moving due east through 48. Good run for most except the Knoxville area and NW Tennessee/SWKY.

[Dsty2001]

Wonder if with this new information MRX will start issuing advisories/watches further east, even if you go by the worst models can't believe they've not at least issued a WWA for the eastern counties

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Wonder if with this new information MRX will start issuing advisories/watches further east, even if you go by the worst models can't believe they've not at least issued a WWA for the eastern counties

They will likely add winter products of some kind with their update here shortly. I am not sure what though. It's a tough forecast at best. Especially in the I-81 corridor.

[Wintersnow888]

Saturday Night

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 32. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow. High near 36. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.     

From NWS.... Just thought it was notable that the Sunday part doesn't give a number....it just says Snow ....

[John1122]

Looks like MRX lowered my snow totals quite a bit from the forecast yesterday. Odd, the models actually all got better tonight. Oh well, boom or bust as the thread says.

[John1122]

MRX upgraded SWVa to a winter storm warning. Left the watch for my area and added a tier of counties below the watch to a WWA. I'm curious to read their AFD explaining why they did so. It's certainly not based on model guidance from overnight. Also not sure why it takes so long for the AFD to come out on days when it's potentially snowy. It normally rolls out around 3 am, looks like it's going to be 2 hours behind this morning.

[bearman]

I see MRX did not put the valley under any advisorys except for the extream northern counties.  That gives the rest of the valley a fighting chance. Right on queue Latest GFS 6.5 for TYS and 13.3 for Etowah.

[John1122]

The GFS is just all in. It's either gonna bust wide open or score big. 13 inches imby that run.

[Scottie16]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is just all in. It's either gonna bust wide open or score big. 13 inches imby that run.

Reading the latest guidance MRX is all in on the NAM. 

[John1122]

Just now, Scottie16 said:

Reading the latest guidance MRX is all in on the NAM. 

They finally released the AFD. Cited no winter storm warning here due to uncertainty, though I'm not sure how it's a certainty in parts of SWVA under a warning vs here. They got roasted on the last event when it didn't snow in Knoxville. I think they are gun shy. 

[BlunderStorm]

Anyone know if those super early radar returns south of Crossville are the real deal? On another note looks like the low is about 50 miles due east of Texarkana as of now.

[*Flash*]

Those latest HRRR maps make me nervous for NW Middle Tennessee. Southern middle looks to score again. 

[Weathertree2]

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just noticed that MRX dropped a bomb at the end of their disco, for areas above 4000'

Finally, the gusty winds in combination with snow will bring near blizzard
like conditions to the Smokies, generally above 4000 feet. It is
certainly possible a blizzard warning may be needed later, but
for now will let the WSW handle it.

[AMZ8990]

28 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said:

I’ll say this, the EURO has been consistent with this look.  Hard not to bite on this with that consistency.  Gonna be a long night of tracking ahead!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No clue how this will impact it, but looks like the shortwave is running about 45 minutes to an hour behind where the mesoscale models had it. 

[Uncle Nasty]

Slept in today and waking up to a mix of maps in the Chatty area. 1/2 are showing decent snow in our area and 1/2 are showing the infamous no snow for us. Just watched WRCB and the weekend met is calling for a dusting, if anything at all, similar to the last system. I think when these maps spit out 2-4" in our area they would have to be taking the local ridges and mountains into consideration because
it appears we are simply too warm for an earlier changeover to get any accumulations. Maybe [mention=499]John1122[/mention] can chime in on my sentence regarding the maps and local mountains.

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[AMZ8990]

For my west Tn and part of middle Tn folks.  Here is a map NWS Memphis put out early this morning.    It puts down 3-6 for most of west Tn except the far northwest corner of the state.  I-40 from Jackson to Nashville looked like it Was in a good spot again, Good look for the majority of west Tn also though.  

 

https://www.weather.gov/meg/winter

[AMZ8990]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

No clue how this will impact it, but looks like the shortwave is running about 45 minutes to an hour behind where the mesoscale models had it. 

NWS must of seem something they liked last night, they bumped totals up to 3-6 instead of 2-4 in my neck of the woods.

[bearman]

It is always curious to me how MRX makes their decision to issue winter weather warning products.   They always err on the side of caution when it comes to severe weather events like tornadoes and issure many warnings that never pan out. It seems like this can cause people to often disregard these warnings but with winter events they seem much more hesitant to pull the trigger.  Maybe it is an issue of scale of impact?

[Carvers Gap]

47 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Slept in today and waking up to a mix of maps in the Chatty area. 1/2 are showing decent snow in our area and 1/2 are showing the infamous no snow for us. Just watched WRCB and the weekend met is calling for a dusting, if anything at all, similar to the last system. I think when these maps spit out 2-4" in our area they would have to be taking the local ridges and mountains into consideration because
it appears we are simply too warm for an earlier changeover to get any accumulations. Maybe [mention=499]John1122[/mention] can chime in on my sentence regarding the maps and local mountains.

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Very true.  That happens in NE TN all the time, especially Johnson City.  Models try to smooth out the transition form the mountains to lower elevations when in fact the transition is quite sharp if looking directly from above.  The real pain is when modeling tries to smooth things out between the Plateau and Apps - the distance between the two is pretty narrow up here.  I have set the bar at 1" for MBY.  Anything else is gravy.  With wrecked thermals, downscoping, dry slot, and a low tracking into the Apps....not a great set-up at first glance.  Maybe the eastern valley gets a surprise.  With cold air not already in place, super tough forecast for the pros.  

[Carvers Gap]

42 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

NWS must of seem something they liked last night, they bumped totals up to 3-6 instead of 2-4 in my neck of the woods.

The NMB model bumped up and inch or two or your area it looks like at 6z.  Man, I have such low confidence in modeling for this storm.  

[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Very true.  That happens in NE TN all the time, especially Johnson City.  Models try to smooth out the transition form the mountains to lower elevations when in fact the transition is quite sharp if looking directly from above.  The real pain is when modeling tries to smooth things out between the Plateau and Apps - the distance between the two is pretty narrow up here.  I have set the bar at 1" for MBY.  Anything else is gravy.  With wrecked thermals, downscoping, dry slot, and a low tracking into the Apps....not a great set-up at first glance.  Maybe the eastern valley gets a surprise.  With cold air not already in place, super tough forecast for the pros.  

Yep I'm in the same boat. Tough seeing a lot of 00z and 06z models show 6-8" for me and knowing the cutoff will be way sharper than they are able to show..  I knew this one was a heartbreaker as soon as we went away from the Miller A track.  Going to be a LONG day tomorrow watching areas to my east and west get buried and we get the slot. 
 

my one last hope is wrap around NW flow and maybe that kicker energy will help boost that.

[McMinnWx]

Latest HRRR showing a couple of inches for my area. Still can’t believe MRX hasn’t dropped at least a SWS for us.