Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust

[Tucker1027]

Looks like a "realistic" possibility. We'll see. Seems like maybe things are starting to come back to us after the crazy model runs for most of the day.

I have seen several times with winter storms that we lose the models about 36 hours out, but sometimes they will swing back to us.


.

[Shocker0]

OHX latest disco actually sounded more bullish than when the WSWs were put out early AM. Basically said some places are gonna get wallop and 8"+ isn't out of the question. The question is where these bands will set up. Doesn't mean much for the Eastern part of the state, but just a few hours ago even the midstate was looking almost blanked.

[PowellVolz]

Looks like a "realistic" possibility. We'll see. Seems like maybe things are starting to come back to us after the crazy model runs for most of the day.

P type was confusing IMO. Unless the backside rates were high, seemed like there was much more rain area wide than what the clown map suggests.


.

[John1122]

40 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I might go to Livingston


.

If you're not opposed to clinched cheeks getting up there, the top of Cross Mountain is 3000-3500 feet and is generally being modeled for 12+.

[Shocker0]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

P type was confusing IMO. Unless the backside rates were high, seemed like there was much more rain area wide than what the clown map suggests.


.

Yeah it seems like all the models are struggling hard with that right now. Some had snow hitting middle Tennessee with a band of freezing rain on the western edge which seemed really odd.

[Bigbald]

0zGfs track looks just like WPC forecast.  We may have removed one hiccup from the equation if this is a new shift

[Mrwolf1972]

Gfs 0z

[John1122]

10" on the GFS at 0z. Using my 50-60 percent of snowfall method I should be sitting pretty for 5+ inches. 

[John1122]

The Oz GFS shows basically what Nashville NWS is talking about for the midstate. I suspect MRX won't be as bullish as the GFS for their below 40 counties that rack up that run. 

[dwagner88]

My heart goes out to all the professional mets out there. This forecast feels impossible. Tremendous bust potential in either direction.

[mempho]

My heart goes out to all the professional mets out there. This forecast feels impossible. Tremendous bust potential in either direction.

It's called a BLIZZARD. Now, thru just have to say the word in the forecast.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, mempho said:

It's called a BLIZZARD. Now, thru just have to say the word in the forecast.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

That optimism worked well for you guys last February. Sadly I emerged from that “Arctic Outbreak” even more skeptical than before.

[John1122]

RAP finally came north. 

[dwagner88]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RAP finally came north. 

Holy crap. ATL metro has a rough forecast with that run. I have to think some of that is ice/sleet down there. 

[Dsty2001]

I just...these model runs are??!?!  At this point I'm about to stop looking at them, cause I think they are as confused as I am lmao

[Jesse from KY]

Seems to me that this is likely to become more of a now-casting event than anything.

[TellicoWx]

32 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

My heart goes out to all the professional mets out there. This forecast feels impossible. Tremendous bust potential in either direction.

I dont think I've ever been as less confident about a storm that has had anywhere from 3" to 13" centered over McMinn, Monroe, Polk. Crazy evolution with this one, definitely wouldn't want to be in their shoes.

[waronxmas]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RAP finally came north. 

Hubba hubba 

[waronxmas]

8 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Holy crap. ATL metro has a rough forecast with that run. I have to think some of that is ice/sleet down there. 

The biggest concern I have is power loss. Since it’s a Sunday before a big holiday in Atlanta proper (and with Omicron still raging), most people will be at home thankfully so there shouldn’t be a repeat of 2014. What is concerning is that over the last 10 years nearly 100k have moved to the city center and almost all of them in apartment blocks and high rises they were built quick (think thin walls with little to no insulation) and are electric only. If the power goes out for a significant amount of time we’re going have a similar experience as Texas had last year with their grid problems. Not for as long obviously since temps will rebound in a few days, but it’ll be a poop show for all those people in “luxury” cardboard boxes in the sky. 

[mempho]

That optimism worked well for you guys last February. Sadly I emerged from that “Arctic Outbreak” even more skeptical than before.

Optimism is critical!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Wurbus]

About the only consistent feature on these models is the warm nose through the valley. Everything else just seems like a crap shoot. I don't envy anyone making these calls.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

37 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

I just...these model runs are??!?!  At this point I'm about to stop looking at them, cause I think they are as confused as I am lmao

I'm ****ing baffled bro. Trying to figure out how much snow Clarksville area will get and

 

 

[Matthew70]

9 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

I'm ****ing baffled bro. Trying to figure out how much snow Clarksville area will get and

 

 

I would expect 1-2”.  More than that would be a nice surprise. Hopefully it is more for all of TN.

 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I would expect 1-2”.  More than that would be a nice surprise. Hopefully it is more for all of TN.

 

That's kind of what I've been assuming. Kids should be able to make a better snowman with these 2 inches than they were with the 7 inches last time. It was terrible snowman snow. It's just wild run to run the massive disparities. 

[Wintersnow888]

UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cool and cloudy at update time. Pretty quiet out there. We`ll take
it because the next couple of days are going to be hectic. I`m not
going to go into a bunch of in-depth analysis here, mainly because
the 00Z model suite hasn`t come in yet. I`ll leave that to the
overnight crew. What I will say is that several places in Middle
TN look like they`re going to get more snow than they bargained
for Saturday night and Sunday. Yes, models are all over the place
as far as positioning where the heaviest snow is going to fall,
but if there`s anything they agree on, someone (or a large swath
of someones) is gonna get hammered. Of note, the 00Z HRRR has
finally started to show heavy snow accumulation. I mention this,
because arguably, the HRRR did the best with the last two snow
events across the mid-state. That said, I have also seen evidence
of forecast soundings showing strong Omega signs in the dendritic
growth layer across a good swath of I-40 and south. How`s that
for scientific? Basically, it means heavy snow for a period of
time.

All of this is leading to potentially 4-8 inches of snow across a
good portion of the area and I wouldn`t be surprised to see a
couple of spots see more and even a few spots (probably our far
northwest counties) see something closer to an inch.

I think the bottom line is: be prepared. Many places are going to
get a bunch of snow and everyone knows how even an inch of snow
can cripple TN when it comes to travel and traffic. Be prepared
for major travel impacts by late Sunday morning, lasting through
the night and probably even worse Monday morning in the aftermath
as temperatures in the morning should bottom out in the 20s,
freezing over anything liquid on the roads. Afternoon
temperatures Monday will try to inch towards 40 but I`m seeing a
lot of clouds Monday, so the sun may not be out to help melt
anything on area roadways. Hopefully by Tuesday, we can start
getting things back towards normal.

&&

.AV

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cool and cloudy at update time. Pretty quiet out there. We`ll take
it because the next couple of days are going to be hectic. I`m not
going to go into a bunch of in-depth analysis here, mainly because
the 00Z model suite hasn`t come in yet. I`ll leave that to the
overnight crew. What I will say is that several places in Middle
TN look like they`re going to get more snow than they bargained
for Saturday night and Sunday. Yes, models are all over the place
as far as positioning where the heaviest snow is going to fall,
but if there`s anything they agree on, someone (or a large swath
of someones) is gonna get hammered. Of note, the 00Z HRRR has
finally started to show heavy snow accumulation. I mention this,
because arguably, the HRRR did the best with the last two snow
events across the mid-state. That said, I have also seen evidence
of forecast soundings showing strong Omega signs in the dendritic
growth layer across a good swath of I-40 and south. How`s that
for scientific? Basically, it means heavy snow for a period of
time.

All of this is leading to potentially 4-8 inches of snow across a
good portion of the area and I wouldn`t be surprised to see a
couple of spots see more and even a few spots (probably our far
northwest counties) see something closer to an inch.

I think the bottom line is: be prepared. Many places are going to
get a bunch of snow and everyone knows how even an inch of snow
can cripple TN when it comes to travel and traffic. Be prepared
for major travel impacts by late Sunday morning, lasting through
the night and probably even worse Monday morning in the aftermath
as temperatures in the morning should bottom out in the 20s,
freezing over anything liquid on the roads. Afternoon
temperatures Monday will try to inch towards 40 but I`m seeing a
lot of clouds Monday, so the sun may not be out to help melt
anything on area roadways. Hopefully by Tuesday, we can start
getting things back towards normal.

&&

.AV

I am curious about the HRRR part because if I recall correctly, the HRRR did not do great at all last event and it ended up drier than expected in southern mid state and East TN.

[John1122]

Euro maintains. 

[codgator]

I’ll Sign up for that

 

[jaxjagman]

58 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I am curious about the HRRR part because if I recall correctly, the HRRR did not do great at all last event and it ended up drier than expected in southern mid state and East TN.

No.the deformation zone was around our area and not to the south.I remember putting my pointer around NE Williamson County it showed us getting 9".,think we got around 7-8",it didnt shpw much of anything to the south

[John1122]

57 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I am curious about the HRRR part because if I recall correctly, the HRRR did not do great at all last event and it ended up drier than expected in southern mid state and East TN.

The HRRR caught on about 24 hours out with the fact that far eastern areas would struggle.  The RAP and 3k NAM did as well. We will see if they make any big moves tomorrow.