WinterWonderland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I get that this storm is difficult to forecast, but really surprised that NWS has issued absolutely nothing for the east TN Valley. I would expect at least a Hazardous Weather statement of some sort since we have the possibility of wintry precip in the area. It's just odd. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: Not sure I follow. What stations are saying under an inch for BNA? Channel 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I get that this storm is difficult to forecast, but really surprised that NWS has issued absolutely nothing for the east TN Valley. I would expect at least a Hazardous Weather statement of some sort since we have the possibility of wintry precip in the area. It's just odd. Agree they should at least put out a SPS to get info out. The delay likely means it'll be winter weather advisory when we get in range for it 12 to 24 hours out.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Agree they should at least put out a SPS to get info out. The delay likely means it'll be winter weather advisory when we get in range for it 12 to 24 hours out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Or they are waiting only to issue a WSW with 6 hrs to go lol….. It’s shift change time haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This storm reminds me somewhat of the storm we had in Feb 1996. Everyone was predicting ice or rain, no snow for our area in the ETN valley, and here in Anderson County we ended up getting pounded. Sleet fell for about 30 minutes then turned to snow. Almost 2 feet and the hardest I've ever seen snow fall. Made for many days of awesome sledding! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said: This storm reminds me somewhat of the storm we had in Feb 1996. Everyone was predicting ice or rain, no snow for our area in the ETN valley, and here in Anderson County we ended up getting pounded. Sleet fell for about 30 minutes then turned to snow. Almost 2 feet and the hardest I've ever seen snow fall. Made for many days of awesome sledding! I hope you’re right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I still remember Paul when he said the word Bilzzard back in 93, he was the first TV met in Chatt to use the word in relation to that storm and he was mocked quite a bit for it until the 20" of snow with 6 foot drifts occurred. Would love to get to experience another blizzard of 93. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I couldn't imagine the excitement this board would have to track a storm like that. Honestly, the servers would probably crash a few times. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said: I get that this storm is difficult to forecast, but really surprised that NWS has issued absolutely nothing for the east TN Valley. I would expect at least a Hazardous Weather statement of some sort since we have the possibility of wintry precip in the area. It's just odd. It’s got to be because they don’t know what to do, but you’re right. The least they could do would be to issue a hazardous weather statement. I also think according to NWS protocol they don’t usually issue wwa’s this soon. Winter storm watches, yes, advisories, no. Also, HUN and FFC have lower standards than MRX for WSW criteria (2in is all it takes there. It’s 4in here.) so, what would be a warning in AL or GA, here would only be an advisory. These would just be my humble opinions on why they don’t have anything yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I had to replace my dishwasher this afternoon. Any exciting model wavering since 12z? 18z Euro should be out in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Jed33 said: It’s got to be because they don’t know what to do, but you’re right. The least they could do would be to issue a hazardous weather statement. I also think according to NWS protocol they don’t usually issue wwa’s this soon. Winter storm watches, yes, advisories, no. Also, HUN and FFC have lower standards than MRX for WSW criteria (2in is all it takes there. It’s 4in here.) so, what would be a warning in AL or GA, here would only be an advisory. These would just be my humble opinions on why they don’t have anything yet. I also think Morristown tends to be more conservative with their forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jed33 said: It’s got to be because they don’t know what to do, but you’re right. The least they could do would be to issue a hazardous weather statement. I also think according to NWS protocol they don’t usually issue wwa’s this soon. Winter storm watches, yes, advisories, no. Also, HUN and FFC have lower standards than MRX for WSW criteria (2in is all it takes there. It’s 4in here.) so, what would be a warning in AL or GA, here would only be an advisory. These would just be my humble opinions on why they don’t have anything yet. Standards for warning criteria can and should be based on topography. GSP does this. We would have to almost double our annual seasonal average in Chattanooga to reach warning criteria for MRX. It’s nonsensical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Oh I know, I totally get it. It is crazy how they give the southern valley (and really the Central Valley too) the same criteria as SW Virginia and the mtns. I guess that’s how they roll though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not much change in 18z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I had to replace my dishwasher this afternoon. Any exciting model wavering since 12z? 18z Euro should be out in a few minutes. Well the circle of life has continued and I’m almost out of life lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I get that this storm is difficult to forecast, but really surprised that NWS has issued absolutely nothing for the east TN Valley. I would expect at least a Hazardous Weather statement of some sort since we have the possibility of wintry precip in the area. It's just odd. I bet 90% of the population in ETn has no idea what that is. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: I bet 90% of the population in ETn has no idea what that is. . 90% of the population doesn’t even know what day it is, so yes you are correct sir! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Wurbus said: I couldn't imagine the excitement this board would have to track a storm like that. Honestly, the servers would probably crash a few times. Would love to live to see another storm like 93. I was only 7 years old at the time, but it was absolutely amazing. I'm pretty sure that storm is responsible for my obsession with winter weather. 93, 96 and 09 are the ones that I always remember being the great ones. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said: Would love to live to see another storm like 93. I was only 7 years old at the time, but it was absolutely amazing. I'm pretty sure that storm is responsible for my obsession with winter weather. 93, 96 and 09 are the ones that I always remember being the great ones. 7? My God I just realized my age, Thanks Lord I was just getting back from Iraq yikes! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like the valley gets something on the latest from Nashville NWS can't tell exactly how much..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It's interesting how different offices have different views of the Low track. This is from Peachtree City, Ga. It also shows their thoughts on Georgia and surrounding states. I'm not sure if the Tennessee graphics with % of potential snowfall totals are from their office or from Norman.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 51 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Channel 5 Gotcha. I’m just not seeing that when I go on their website. Still think we get a couple inches out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I'll probably be asleep when the 0z radiosondes come in, but if anyone wants to, here is a site to see how real time data is lining up with the GFS's modeled rendering: https://cyclonicwx.com/analysis/ Here's how he interpretted it at 12z: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I'll probably be asleep when the 0z radiosondes come in, but if anyone wants to, here is a site to see how real time data is lining up with the GFS's modeled rendering:https://cyclonicwx.com/analysis/ Here's how he interpretted it at 12z: What does slower change for us?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: What does slower change for us? . Well that's what I was about to say, lol. The 1,000,000 dollar question. I'm not sure exactly how to interpret it. Jack Sillin (I think a met grad student at Cornell) seemed to think it might be tied to the NAM being slower and more cut off, but the trend gif he is showing, also seems to be showing it trending south. I think we'd want to look for more confluence over New England (blue dots indicating 500mb heights are lower there) and the shortwave's trough being deeper than forecast (also blue dots). That website also verifies 700 and 850 mb temps, as compared to how the GFS initializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: What does slower change for us? . As with most things….slower is better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Gotcha. I’m just not seeing that when I go on their website. Still think we get a couple inches out of this. Must have misunderstood them ? https://x-default-stgec.uplynk.com/ausw/slices/ee7/9ca48a3b38ef42538c6fe52a659b1e99/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559_e.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well that's what I was about to say, lol. The 1,000,000 dollar question. I'm not sure exactly how to interpret it. Jack Sillin (I think a met grad student at Cornell) seemed to think it might be tied to the NAM being slower and more cut off, but the trend gif he is showing, also seems to be showing it trending south. I think we'd want to look for more confluence over New England (blue dots indicating 500mb heights are lower there) and the shortwave's trough being deeper than forecast (also blue dots). That website also verifies 700 and 850 mb temps, as compared to how the GFS initializes. I asked you because your elevator goes higher than mine Anyway my first thought was slower meant more interaction with the trailing wave which would/could pull it further north. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 As with most things….slower is betterUsername checks out . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: Anyway my first thought was slower meant more interaction with the trailing wave which would/could pull it further north. That's true too, there are so many variables that's why I was a little uneasy about interpreting it. One thing is slightly different, but how does that impact the other players on the field? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Must have misunderstood them ? https://x-default-stgec.uplynk.com/ausw/slices/ee7/9ca48a3b38ef42538c6fe52a659b1e99/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559_e.mp4 That lady sucks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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