PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 MRX now upping totals in the valley. Kiss of death. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: MRX seems to have upped snow accumulation a little Yep I was .5 of a inch now 1 to 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That MRX tweet gave the impression to me that they reopened the door on snow chances in the valley but didn’t necessarily want to backtrack on their earlier thoughts. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NWS in Nashville raised my low from 27 to 32 on Saturday night, and the high on Sunday from 30 to 36 in the last hour. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I just got home from work and haven't had time to read back all the posts. Does it look like Chattanooga will get 1" of rain or 1 1/2" of rain? Kidding. Been here before and might be a last minute surprise. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: 18z hrrr looks extremely similar to RGEM/CMC camp through hr 36 at the 850lvl, Much further south than NAM which is now the outlier of the high res models. It's precip shield is still mostly south of TN but it has ticked north this run. It's long range HRRR so wont be surprised for it to underestimate the Comma JB mentioned that he thought the GFS and Euro operational models might be possibly suffering from feedback problems. I can see that a couple of ways. Either they have better resolution and are nailing this....or it is possible feedback. We saw a similar egregious error with an ice storm that never occurred in the Piedmont many years ago. It is possible that the reason the GEFS ensemble has never bitten on big totals is that it is simply filtering out the extreme feedback solutions OR it has lower resolution. That was a huge move by the NAM. It is why I don't trust that model until I see the whites of the storm's eyes....Bunker Hill rules with the NAM. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It’s a waiting game at this point guys and gals. The Models (specifically short range ones) are gonna spit out some wonky looking solutions while they try to figure out the temperature profiles/timing in the possibly affected areas. This is a long duration event though, so don’t get hung up on seeing rain in the forecast because Everyone is gonna see some rain before they get snow with this event. And Often times those rain to snow events Produce the biggest snows as well. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: That MRX tweet gave the impression to me that they reopened the door on snow chances in the valley but didn’t necessarily want to backtrack on their earlier thoughts. . Betcha that NAM run has everyone rattled. It would me. Very thankful I am not in their shoes this weekend. We have models that literally show a foot for particular place and then nothing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Is there anything still showing >0.5" for KCHA? I'm trying to determine how they formulated their forecast. Seems like things have ticked upwards down here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 56 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Just out of curiosity does anyone know what mods or combination that Accuweather uses? This is the 3rd day in a row they have had 4-8” under my zip code. . No idea but Athens is the Same 4-8” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Kasper said: No idea but Athens is the Same 4-8” There’s no way that verifies…right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Betcha that NAM run has everyone rattled. It would me. Very thankful I am not in their shoes this weekend. We have models that literally show a foot for particular place and then nothing. Wouldn’t be a big deal normally but it moving that much after the HRRR and RGEM went south means you can’t completely discount it though. Personally I don’t care how far south the storm tracks because ETn valley was going to have temp issues regardless but a SE track to the east side of the mountains puts us in a better backside position with falling temps in the 20’s. For the last several days it was backside or bust with this system for most of us that’s not elevated. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 FFC has expanded their WSW for all northern counties. Once again, the valley is completely enclosed on all sides by winter storm watches. I wish this was a rare occurrence, but it really isn’t. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 There’s no way that verifies…right?Lol it's not impossible considering the crazy model spread. Seriously this thing can go either way for a lot of folks. Could be a big giant bust or a massive surprise storm for many.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: There’s no way that verifies…right? Haha, one can dream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just as I predicted earlier. The valley is totally surrounded with wsw. LOL. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX now upping totals in the valley. Kiss of death. . Yup. I should go ahead and put my Monday morning plans back on the calendar. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, bearman said: Just as I predicted earlier. The valley is totally surronded with wsw. LOL. This actually makes me feel better about the Valley’s chances! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z NAM 3km at 48 hours... How on Earth you screw up the upper air that much I don't know. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hey @McMinnWxwe live a few miles apart wouldn’t it be funny if I got 8 inches and you got .5 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yup. I should go ahead and put my Monday morning plans back on the calendar.Golfing and then hanging out at the pool. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Kasper said: Hey @McMinnWxwe live a few miles apart wouldn’t it be funny if I got 8 inches and you got .5 lol That would be about my luck! Heck, if someone in Athens cashes in, I’m happy! I didn’t realize how close we were to the cutoff on the last snow we had. Seemed like the closer you go to 75, the less snow you saw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just as I predicted earlier. The valley is totally surronded with wsw. LOL. From Band of Brothers….“We are Paratroopers sir, we are supposed to be surrounded”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: That would be about my luck! Heck, if someone in Athens cashes in, I’m happy! I didn’t realize how close we were to the cutoff on the last snow we had. Seemed like the closer you go to 75, the less snow you saw. Yea I think Decatur basically got blanked, crazy how sharp the cutoff was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z gfs don't look to bad of a run unless I'm reading it wrong. Low was in Atlanta then transfers to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We live in a “Great Valley” except during winter….. We live in the “VALLEY OF DOOM” Kasper, January 14, 2022 All quotes and copyrights are my own 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 18z gfs don't look to bad of a run unless I'm reading it wrong. Low was in Atlanta then transfers to the coast. I’m with you...that looked a lot closer to a Miller A. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The snow totals in valley are rising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kasper said: We live in a “Great Valley” except during winter….. We live in the “VALLEY OF DOOM” Kasper, January 14, 2022 All quotes and copyrights are my own 18z GFS NAMd you lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: 18z GFS NAMd you lol 13.1 I’ll cash in now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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