John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro was better for the NE Eastern Valley, a little worse from Knoxville S. Keeps the mid-state as the best area. Only a few more model runs to go before obs take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Dang that's a pretty looking run for western NC mountains. To rehash 12z, it's basically a UKIE, CMC, RGEM battle against euro, gfs, nam ? Would this be roughly correct?Pretty much… will note the Euro is the furthest east with the 850 I believe. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 In some of those "mix" areas there doesn't seem to be a warm nose (I only checked Morgan and Roane though) at hr 54.Wouldn’t imagine I would have a inversion issue either if Roan Co doesn’t. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I’m taking a nap, I think I’m getting weather drunk! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wouldn’t imagine I would have a inversion issue either if Roan Co doesn’t. .Yeah if the issue isn't as much warm nose as it is downsloping over the mountains then if you are a county or do west of the mountain counties you should have better odds, again that's if warm nose is less of an issue. I would agree Knox county especially west and north Knox would be in better shape being further away from the downsloping winds.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . With no indicators on the left and right of these charts, very hard to determine what is being presented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: With no indicators on the left and right of these charts, very hard to determine what is being presented Click on them in Twitter and the full image loads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z hrrr looks extremely similar to RGEM/CMC camp through hr 36 at the 850lvl, Much further south than NAM which is now the outlier of the high res models. It's precip shield is still mostly south of TN but it has ticked north this run. It's long range HRRR so wont be surprised for it to underestimate the Comma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 With no indicators on the left and right of these charts, very hard to determine what is being presented Open it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z hrrr looks extremely similar to RGEM/CMC camp through hr 36 at the 850lvl, Much further south than NAM which is now the outlier of the high res models. It's precip shield is still mostly south of TN but it has ticked north this run. It's long range HRRR so wont be surprised for it to underestimate the CommaIf we split the difference with the HRRR and the NAM 3k, would that work for ETn north of 40?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 HRRR should be pretty decent for down here with that track, but the thermals are all messed up. I still don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12km nam through 33 has shifted the surface low south. On the surface its exactly like older RGEM. still a little north of rgem at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z nam has low in the gulf @36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This trend toward RGEM at 850mb is where it counts. Eastern areas will like this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just out of curiosity does anyone know what mods or combination that Accuweather uses? This is the 3rd day in a row they have had 4-8” under my zip code. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Just out of curiosity does anyone know what mods or combination that Accuweather uses? This is the 3rd day in a row they have had 4-8” under my zip code. . The DGEX probably. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The DGEX probably.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastTNWeatherAdmirer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It seems like the overall trend is headed to the hrrr outcome with less precip over Nw and middle Tn, western ky and looks very similar to the Rgem at the end frames of the 18z hrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 How’d the NAM end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z nam looks weak and low on moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I do not envy the NWS right now. What a tough call across the entire state! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z nam looks weak and low on moisture. This doesn’t seem right at all. Way too blotchy imo. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM precip depictions make no sense at all with any system I've ever seen. I've never seen the NW side of a storm having mix/zr/rain issues under heavy returns while areas south of there have snow. It's the most oddly structured upper level warm pockets I've ever seen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: This doesn’t seem right at all. Way too blotchy imo. . Love the 8”-10” blot down in South-Central Mississippi 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM precip depictions make no sense at all with any system I've ever seen. I've never seen the NW side of a storm having mix/zr/rain issues under heavy returns while areas south of there have snow. It's the most oddly structured upper level warm pockets I've ever seen. Absolutely agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM precip depictions make no sense at all with any system I've ever seen. I've never seen the NW side of a storm having mix/zr/rain issues under heavy returns while areas south of there have snow. It's the most oddly structured upper level warm pockets I've ever seen. Totally agree...I bet MRX leaves a lot of the decisions related to this forecast up to the night crew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 hours ago, TellicoWx said: That is what is messing up the 850..needs more separation or the valley is left on the outside looking in How does the RGEM resolve this issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The other odd thing about the upper level warm pockets is they are at different levels of the atmosphere. I'm raining at one point and the NAM has 700mb above freezing. 80 miles due south of me the entire column is well below freezing and it's snowing. Another area is raining NE of me and everything is well below freezing until about 925mb, which is near 38f for about 500 feet of atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 MRX seems to have upped snow accumulation a little 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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