Wurbus Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll cash that NAV/GEM in now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I Had thunder and lighting on Sunday at my house. Here recently that’s meant a lock for an incoming snow in the area. We will see if that holds true again this time, personally I think it will. And for the record, the Euro did outstanding with the last storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 18Z ICON is on our side too! What could possibly go wrong!?!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This smells like a March 2009 heartbreak to me. Three strikes in January. Guess that means we are out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: I put very very little stock in it, but the JMA has the LP over Panama or Tallahassee area and 850s well south of the forum area. It will be interesting if models trend back to the low placement along the gulf with a more classical Miller A look. Time flies following model runs, I cant even remember the snow amounts that were projected with more that look a mere 36 hours ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: This smells like a March 2009 heartbreak to me. Three strikes in January. Guess that means we are out. Oof that one still hurts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GFS looks slightly more progressive at 42. Let’s see where this ends up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 RGEM says no gulf lows for you: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This run of the GFS is faster with slightly less digging. Might result in a less robust system. That would be good for the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS looks slightly more progressive at 42. Let’s see where this ends up. At hour 63 it is almost a state further south and faster than 12z, at least based on the H5 vorts on COD's website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: At hour 63 it is almost a state further south and faster than 12z, at least based on the H5 vorts on COD's website Yeah, it is digging less and almost 150-200 miles further along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 IMO this won't be a full cave to the Euro, but a decent step in that direction, just long enough for the 0z Euro to come in more like the 12z GFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here's what I'm seeing at COD's website. \ I wasn't around for the 12z GFS, but to me that seems to be a step in the right direction. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Southeast trend by the gfs. Man, it almost caved. Not there yet, but close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Significant change by the gfs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Wicked Valley snow hole on that run. Accumulations in a circle all around the valley in all directions, even south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z GFS: 18z GFS: 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We need cold HP in Indiana, not Iowa. Otherwise we warm nose to death. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 National Weather Service Nashville TN 222 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 .DISCUSSION... Beautiful mild mid-January day across Middle Tennessee today with clear skies, occasionally gusty southwest winds and current temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Continue mild weather is expected tonight into tomorrow with lows only dropping into the 30s and highs on Thursday once again in the upper 40s and 50s. A fast-moving clipper system will race across the area Thursday afternoon and early evening, and although low levels will be fairly dry a few light rain showers are possible - mainly in our northeast counties - which could briefly end as light snow showers. Temperatures will cool down a bit behind this system with lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s Friday morning, and highs topping out in the 40s on Friday afternoon. This weekend continues to be a forecasting nightmare as 12Z model suite indicates a closed upper low pressure system takes an unusual U-shaped path from the Plains across the Gulf Coast states then up the East Coast, bringing a long duration precipitation event to Middle Tennessee from Saturday into Sunday. Exactly where this upper low and its associated surface features track has major implications on whether we will see wintry weather across Middle Tennessee. In general, models indicate strong WAA ahead of the upper low will keep mild air in place most of Saturday, with precip staying as mostly rain, before the atmosphere cools at all levels Saturday night and Sunday as the low moves near then east of our forecast area, leading to a mix of rain and snow with a changeover to all snow before precipitation ends. GFS continues to be further north with its track versus the ECMWF, and thus has a rainier solution than the more wintry Euro. Very difficult to pinpoint potential snow amounts due to these track differences, but overall currently appears our western and northern counties have a better chance to see some accumulating snowfall with this system while our southern and eastern areas have a lower chance. Forecast soundings indicate this will mainly be a rain or snow event, although some sleet is possible albeit more unlikely. WPC and model liquid QPF totals range from 0.5 to over 1.5 inches with this event, suggesting parts of the area could see another significant snowfall - which would be our third this month if it occurs. Hopefully the models come into better agreement over the next couple of days for sanity`s sake. After this system, dry and colder weather makes a return for the first part of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS looks pretty good. Definitely some warm nose issues at the beginning of the event for the greater valley, but that is nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Won't let me post a screenshot for some reason, but the GEFS mean was 6-10 inches for almost all of East TN, plateau, Nashville, and most of North TN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The slightly faster GFS gives the 50/50 less time to clear out, the result is boomage. Still overamped imo but nice to see the track coming towards it's ensembles and other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm in the 40 percent chance of 12+ that GFS run. 11 from the Euro. Everything is fine. Not gonna bite....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GEFS mean Wurbus was referring to. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GEFS mean Wurbus was referring to. How much of that is sleet, freezing rain in our area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: How much of that is sleet, freezing rain in our area? . It should be none. WXBell claims to have separate maps for sleet, freezing rain and snow. For the most part, this is a snow or no situation for most of the forum region except maybe some parts of Kentucky, far NW or far NE. The Euro showed less than .01 zr and around .2 to .3 sleet at most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Why do I feel like the Raiders head coach in the Oak/SD game lol...was all content with running out the clock on this one, and then bam, 18z GEFS has to call a timeout. Thats fine then, we do or die with this one GEFS...no tie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like a smidge more confluence over NE on the 18z Euro an I mean a smidge. It is out to 66 hours so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just a touch further SE with the center of the energy at hour 78. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z run Sunday AM: 18z run Sunday AM: Looks a little stronger, so it could wash out the slightly south tick 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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