Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Night and day difference between the GFS and CMC on how they handle the 850 and warm nose...Cross section of KTYS Awesome plot, thanks for posting that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro maybe 25 miles west vs 12z thru 42. See if that changes anything down the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Maybe slightly warmer vs 12z. Major winter Storm unfolding north of 40 from the Plateau west by 1am Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro looks more north then last runs doesn't look good for the valley. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Eastern Valley warm nose that wasn't as pronounced at 12z. Rain up to Anderson County in the eastern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Basically a near exact match of the 3k at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro doesn't cut and runs the low up across Central NC just like the GFS. It had a big Northern Valley dry slot earlier so totals in the East won't be what they were earlier at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I feel this one slipping away run by run unless you are in mountains or plateau don't look for much here in valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Terrible run for East TN on the Euro. This is going to be strike three on the year for a good snow. Bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro ends up here. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Solid 2-4” for whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: Terrible run for East TN on the Euro. This is going to be strike three on the year for a good snow. Bust 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Solid 2-4” for whole state. With temp profiles in valley I don't see it sticking. It don't go below freezing untill after all moisture is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: With temp profiles in valley I don't see it sticking. It should have a good shot. When it snows it will be when the cold side of the storm has dropped Temps and the eastern valley areas with less snow that run had some heavy sleet before the change over. A sleet layer would mean fast sticking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 46 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: He seems a bit pompous to me...I could see how maybe there would be some friction with him in the workplace. I'm probably completely wrong but just how I feel from what little I've watched him (and maybe in part due to his nickname and always saying "I told you so" after coming within 3-5 degrees of the high temperature he forecasted that day) I've met him a few times (when wvlt was doing the weather vols picnics and when i got to tour the wvlt building), and I haven't gotten the impression that he is pompous. Out of all of the local meteorologists, he's been my favorite. Seems to be a bigger fan of snow than the other TV mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looking at the cross sectionals of the 0z suite at KTYS, outside the CMC, they are all ugly....more pronounced warm nose with this suite. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM doesn't cut the Apps this time, it transfers from East Central Alabama to South Carolina. Still downslopes the east and warm nose battlezone is around 40. It just crushes the Plateau and westward. It NAMs the Plateau into oblivion. 24 inches in NW Cumberland. 18+ widespread over the Plateau and Anderson and Union Co. It just pounds snow for 20 hours. It's the second biggest NAMming I've ever seen for mby. Legendary run for all but the far Eastern areas but still a significant winter storm there. Massive .4 to .6 ice totals from Northern Blount county up the apps to Mountain City. Some areas of the mid-state get .3 ice and 10 inches or more of snow that run. If it verified, snow would be on the ground well into February in the big hit areas and possibly in most of the area with the coming cold. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The 3k isn't far enough out to catch the last 12 or so hours of the event yet. Major winter storm with heavy ice and heavy snow through 60 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 @PowellVolz is probably pretty close to the 8 inch/14 inch line on the NAM map. It jumps from 8 to 14 over a very short distance in Northern Knox County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 OHX pulled the trigger on a winter storm watch for 3-7 inches with higher amounts possible across what appears to be it's entire CWA or close to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 MRX expanded the watch to all the VA and KY border counties and down the Plateau for 4-6 inches. I think they'll probably have to expand that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 32 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM doesn't cut the Apps this time, it transfers from East Central Alabama to South Carolina. Still downslopes the east and warm nose battlezone is around 40. It just crushes the Plateau and westward. It NAMs the Plateau into oblivion. 24 inches in NW Cumberland. 18+ widespread over the Plateau and Anderson and Union Co. It just pounds snow for 20 hours. It's the second biggest NAMming I've ever seen for mby. Legendary run for all but the far Eastern areas but still a significant winter storm there. Massive .4 to .6 ice totals from Northern Blount county up the apps to Mountain City. Some areas of the mid-state get .3 ice and 10 inches or more of snow that run. If it verified, snow would be on the ground well into February in the big hit areas and possibly in most of the area with the coming cold. That map literally has me at 4" while just 15 miles away close to 8 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It seems like each model has its favorite snow hole. The Canadian models have Roane County in the cross hairs. Be patient. There's still plenty of time to shift the "No Snow, not even a dusting"" over us in SE Hamilton county. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Uncle Nasty said: Be patient. There's still empty of time to shift the "No Snow, not even a dusting"" over us in SE Hamilton county. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk The RGEM just smashed Hamilton Co. Northern areas get over a foot. A solid 6 inches in Chattanooga proper. Almost a foot and a half in NE Georgia. The RGEM was being reasonable yesterday but it's on the NAM stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The RGEM just smashed Hamilton Co. Northern areas get over a foot. A solid 6 inches in Chattanooga proper. Almost a foot and a half in NE Georgia. The RGEM was being reasonable yesterday but it's on the NAM stuff.When I quoted your post I hadn't made it down to the most recent posts. Chatty is due for a good one that will be on the ground more than 6-12 hours. So many different possibilities. Let's pull for one of those 1970's type snows when we get a nice thumpings for everyone.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM doesn't cut the Apps this time, it transfers from East Central Alabama to South Carolina. Still downslopes the east and warm nose battlezone is around 40. It just crushes the Plateau and westward. It NAMs the Plateau into oblivion. 24 inches in NW Cumberland. 18+ widespread over the Plateau and Anderson and Union Co. It just pounds snow for 20 hours. It's the second biggest NAMming I've ever seen for mby. Legendary run for all but the far Eastern areas but still a significant winter storm there. Massive .4 to .6 ice totals from Northern Blount county up the apps to Mountain City. Some areas of the mid-state get .3 ice and 10 inches or more of snow that run. If it verified, snow would be on the ground well into February in the big hit areas and possibly in most of the area with the coming cold. Around a foot of snow IMBY? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 06z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The NAM doesn't cut the Apps this time, it transfers from East Central Alabama to South Carolina. Still downslopes the east and warm nose battlezone is around 40. It just crushes the Plateau and westward. It NAMs the Plateau into oblivion. 24 inches in NW Cumberland. 18+ widespread over the Plateau and Anderson and Union Co. It just pounds snow for 20 hours. It's the second biggest NAMming I've ever seen for mby. Legendary run for all but the far Eastern areas but still a significant winter storm there. Massive .4 to .6 ice totals from Northern Blount county up the apps to Mountain City. Some areas of the mid-state get .3 ice and 10 inches or more of snow that run. If it verified, snow would be on the ground well into February in the big hit areas and possibly in most of the area with the coming cold. Looks like @Wintersnow888 and me better grab milk and bread ASAP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: OHX pulled the trigger on a winter storm watch for 3-7 inches with higher amounts possible across what appears to be it's entire CWA or close to it. Same thing on the west side of the state. Says 2-4 for MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NWS took our temperatures in NW Cumberland down to 28 tomorrow night (from 31 last night) and the high of 36 on Sunday down to 30. However, they added in a chance of rain on both Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, both of which were calling for all snow last night. That would suck if it switches to rain well after the snow started. Especially if it really does top out at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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