TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NBM runs on 10k resolution, and uses every model from the HRRR to the NAVGEM, plus some models I have never heard of (EKDMOS, LAMP, etc)...with latest upgrade it uses 40+ different ones blended together. How it is "blended" first, the blending in the NBM does not use simple averaging, and Prof. Mass’s paper talkes about how this may work, in some detail. The blending in NBM is much more sophisticated than a simple average, and it is able to improve the skill of the result as well as retain detail in the data. secondly, the input models to the blend are from a wide variety of sources, both from NOAA and from outside of NOAA. For example, models from both Canada and the US Navy are included as elements of the blend. Both high resolution regional models and global models are considered. In a way, the NBM is a meta-ensemble, an advanced blending of other ensemble (and non-ensemble) models 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CMC clobbers the great valley. Do not buy it for a second but it’s a glimmer of hope 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Alot of the runs 48 hr ago had a nice clean miller A look for at least a few suites. Hopefully we are returning to this look (?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, John1122 said: "WHAT IS NBM? The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation." I would guess it's the NAM/GFS family + the Euro suite. We'll take it out or a spin. Here are the last two runs including 0z. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: NBM runs on 10k resolution, and uses every model from the HRRR to the NAVGEM, plus some models I have never heard of (EKDMOS, LAMP, etc)...with latest upgrade it uses 40+ different ones blended together. How it is "blended" first, the blending in the NBM does not use simple averaging, and Prof. Mass’s paper talkes about how this may work, in some detail. The blending in NBM is much more sophisticated than a simple average, and it is able to improve the skill of the result as well as retain detail in the data. secondly, the input models to the blend are from a wide variety of sources, both from NOAA and from outside of NOAA. For example, models from both Canada and the US Navy are included as elements of the blend. Both high resolution regional models and global models are considered. In a way, the NBM is a meta-ensemble, an advanced blending of other ensemble (and non-ensemble) models Awesome. Thanks, Tellico. I posted its snowfall map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We'll take it out or a spin. Here are the last two runs including 0z. That 00z will probably lead to expanded watches and is probably why Nashville and Jackson just sent out messages about winter weather being more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: That 00z will probably lead to expanded watches and is probably why Nashville and Jackson just sent out messages about winter weather being more likely. Yeah, NBM carries alot of weight when it comes to their forecast grids as you pointed out. 0z NBM is basically everything 18z suite spit out, plus some..and there's the final result. It's the experimental building block to reach their WRN goals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah, NBM carries alot of weight when it comes to their forecast grids as you pointed out. 0z NBM is basically everything 18z suite spit out, plus some..and there's the final result. It's the experimental building block to reach their WRN goals. I've noticed their predicted snowfall maps is often that. As I typed in reply to Tellico, my phone brought up an amber alert in Tellico. Hope everyone ends up okay in that down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We'll take it out or a spin. Here are the last two runs including 0z. Pivotal has it as well...it did ok with the last storm. Don't know its verification scores, I just started following then, pretty much only watched it to see which way it trended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TellicoWx said: Pivotal has it as well...it did ok with the last storm. Don't know its verification scores, I just started following then, pretty much only watched it to see which way it trended. There's a verification link on the NBM info website. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I just spoke to someone who watched WVLT weather and they were surprised that it might snow here. She said the WVLT met just said any snow that falls outside the high mountains or maybe Crossville and Jamestown wouldn't stick and there was nothing to be concerned about at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We'll take it out or a spin. Here are the last two runs including 0z. I may have a new favorite model to watch, thanks! Those solutions look rather realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: I just spoke to someone who watched WVLT weather and they were surprised that it might snow here. She said the WVLT met just said any snow that falls outside the high mountains or maybe Crossville and Jamestown wouldn't stick and there was nothing to be concerned about at all. I watched it tonight (wasn't really listening to what was being said though) and they seemed to be fairly serious about what could happen. They had 4 counties in bright pink (on the plateau) as the "heaviest snow area" but I didn't hear them give specific amounts. But the snow axis they showed on screen and a couple other things made me think they were looking at it as being much more significant than WATE was. I believe on the 5pm broadcast they weren't as enthused about it as they were at 11 though (based on the article on their website from the 5pm broadcast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 David Aldrich has a second low going through Memphis as well (as of 8:30pm ET) and then cutting up around Knoxville (similar to WATE but further east). Mentioned that this will cause mostly rain in areas, and then whatever model he used spits out the most meager of amounts that I've seen from any models today for Tennessee. Hopefully he will be wrong. Honestly his map looks closer to what the models were showing two days ago with how far north he has the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: I watched it tonight (wasn't really listening to what was being said though) and they seemed to be fairly serious about what could happen. They had 4 counties in bright pink (on the plateau) as the "heaviest snow area" but I didn't hear them give specific amounts. But the snow axis they showed on screen and a couple other things made me think they were looking at it as being much more significant than WATE was. I believe on the 5pm broadcast they weren't as enthused about it as they were at 11 though (based on the article on their website from the 5pm broadcast) She apparently took it quite differently and was surprised when I said Campbell County could see 4-6 inches of heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Shocker0 said: David Aldrich has a second low going through Memphis as well (as of 8:30pm ET) and then cutting up around Knoxville (similar to WATE but further east). Mentioned that this will cause mostly rain in areas, and then whatever model he used spits out the most meager of amounts that I've seen from any models today for Tennessee. Hopefully he will be wrong. Honestly his map looks closer to what the models were showing two days ago with how far north he has the heavy snow. EDIT: Apparently I ended the video a little early and he showed other model solutions with more, but this was the first one he showed. 1 minute ago, Shocker0 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Shocker0 said: David Aldrich has a second low going through Memphis as well (as of 8:30pm ET) and then cutting up around Knoxville (similar to WATE but further east). Mentioned that this will cause mostly rain in areas, and then whatever model he used spits out the most meager of amounts that I've seen from any models today for Tennessee. Hopefully he will be wrong. Honestly his map looks closer to what the models were showing two days ago with how far north he has the heavy snow. I'm 99 percent sure that's either the NAM or the Canadian from about 36 hours ago when one run cut into Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: David Aldrich has a second low going through Memphis as well (as of 8:30pm ET) and then cutting up around Knoxville (similar to WATE but further east). Mentioned that this will cause mostly rain in areas, and then whatever model he used spits out the most meager of amounts that I've seen from any models today for Tennessee. Hopefully he will be wrong. Honestly his map looks closer to what the models were showing two days ago with how far north he has the heavy snow. Captain Accurate is his nickname? Ok lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Stovepipe said: Captain Accurate is his nickname? Ok lol. He didn't take getting fired from WVLT very well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nice little bump up on the CMC ensembles 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: He didn't take getting fired from WVLT very well. He seems a bit pompous to me...I could see how maybe there would be some friction with him in the workplace. I'm probably completely wrong but just how I feel from what little I've watched him (and maybe in part due to his nickname and always saying "I told you so" after coming within 3-5 degrees of the high temperature he forecasted that day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 32 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've noticed their predicted snowfall maps is often that. As I typed in reply to Tellico, my phone brought up an amber alert in Tellico. Hope everyone ends up okay in that down there. Little boy went missing up in the Coker Creek area..mountainous terrain and lots of creeks in the area he's missing. Knox Co has their helicopter with the FLIR system on it up there now. Hope they find him soon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GEFS went the other direction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: He seems a bit pompous to me...I could see how maybe there would be some friction with him in the workplace. I'm probably completely wrong but just how I feel from what little I've watched him (and maybe in part due to his nickname and always saying "I told you so" after coming within 3-5 degrees of the high temperature he forecasted that day) I've not watched a local news broadcast in probably 3 years so I'm out of touch. But it sounds like the weather reporting is a circus these days, not unlike pro wrestling. I miss the olden days of Hinkin reporting rain while it's snowing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: GEFS went the other direction Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: GEFS went the other direction For whatever reason the individual Ens were poor for the West half of the state. Only two were big hits state wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Strange. Starting to get to the timeframe where the Ensembles just mirror the OPs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The 3k, which I hadn't looked at, looks like it would pass the bottom of the mountains and not cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Night and day difference between the GFS and CMC on how they handle the 850 and warm nose...Cross section of KTYS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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