Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is a comparison. The further south one is 0z: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is normally a great look for Tennessee snow. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM is going to front end hammer the Tn/KY border counties. It's backside hammering western forum areas now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 And it's a hard left to run the Apps. Really screws the eastern areas. Will have to see if it does this and transfers or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It is the dreaded Gator head SLP presentation: Never good for TN. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nam doing same wierd movement as 18z has low over Gatlinburg then transfer to coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I feel like this is groundhog day for how many ways we can attempt to eff the great Valley? Wow I would I've guessed we were golden with that low placement off Franklin County, Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Well another storm misses the valley on to the next from what it's showing last few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That cut up the Apps really kills the counties that border the Smokies. The everyone west of basically those counties does somewhere between well and spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: That cut up the Apps really kills the counties that border the Smokies. The everyone west of basically those counties does somewhere between well and spectacular. It’s the NWS jinx in full effect for the mountains. They issue a Watch and now the low is tracking directly into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: That cut up the Apps really kills the counties that border the Smokies. The everyone west of basically those counties does somewhere between well and spectacular. NAM is on an island right now with that track, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Like it or not, there is snow in every single square inch of the state on that run. That is incredibly rare. In fact I can't ever remember that happening from a single storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 You can see the rain shadow up the Apps in East Tennessee, along the high Cumberlands in East KY like Black, also the areas just west of the mountains in WVA. Down here the QPF is cut by nearly 50% over 20 or 30 miles as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Oof. but hey, the mid-state really cashes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: You can see the rain shadow up the Apps in East Tennessee, along the high Cumberlands in East KY like Black, also the areas just west of the mountains in WVA. Down here the QPF is cut by 50% over 20 or 30 miles as the crow flies. John, what are your thoughts on the NAM’s past couple of runs? Do you think it is plausible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I just can't buy into the NAMs solution yet If it's still showing the same solution tomorrow night then might have to take another L 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Came back to check on y’all because misery loves company. And because the NAM clowns spat out a fair amount of ZR across East TN. Can’t even visit family at home to escape the ice for this one! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: John, what are your thoughts on the NAM’s past couple of runs? Do you think it is plausible? Unfortunately, yes. We had another storm a few years ago that did that. So it's definitely on the table. We won't be in the prime NAM range until tomorrow, so I expect more changes as we go. Another shift south like the one we just had with it from 18z to 00z, and it would cut the other side of the Apps before it could get up the valley. Other models are more of a straight Miller A type track. I wouldn't give the NAM any great weight over the Euro for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nashville Discussion - changed Of course, the big story is this weekend`s winter weather potential and I have to say, the major models are doing a much better job with continuity today. Surface and upper lows are following very similar trajectories and as we all know, this can be the difference in one area or another seeing more snow, less snow or a wintry mix. Problem for Middle TN, the surface low looks to be far enough south to make everything snow for us -- and QPFs are looking, well, high. We`re starting to advertise 4 to 6 inches, with the highest potential across our north and east, but honestly, it could be more than that in several spots, especially on the Plateau. This is going to be another one of those situations where you`ll need to plan for widespread travel impacts starting Sund 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said: I just can't buy into the NAMs solution yet If it's still showing the same solution tomorrow night then might have to take another L Agree. NAM has burned me too many times over the years at this range. That is 45-60 hours away on this run from precip onset IMBY. No way I trust it. As for the GFS, its ensemble is a perfect track. The amped models are producing amped solutions right now. No surprise there. Euro and EPS tracks are great. NAM/GFS are not for E TN. I am not seeing any other model send a low into the Apps. Until I see that, the NAM is an outlier solution. E TN has some battles to fight in order to get snow. Middle TN is looking good again. I believe the snow hole deal is over with or without this storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, codgator said: Nashville Discussion - changed Of course, the big story is this weekend`s winter weather potential and I have to say, the major models are doing a much better job with continuity today. Surface and upper lows are following very similar trajectories and as we all know, this can be the difference in one area or another seeing more snow, less snow or a wintry mix. Problem for Middle TN, the surface low looks to be far enough south to make everything snow for us -- and QPFs are looking, well, high. We`re starting to advertise 4 to 6 inches, with the highest potential across our north and east, but honestly, it could be more than that in several spots, especially on the Plateau. This is going to be another one of those situations where you`ll need to plan for widespread travel impacts starting Sund I assume the second shift came to work with fresh eyes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Been snake bit so many times they are so conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: John, what are your thoughts on the NAM’s past couple of runs? Do you think it is plausible? Not John, but certainly plausible solution. As John notes, that very track can happen but is rare. Considering no other model has that solution (slp tracking the spine of the Apps), looks a bit amped to me. The real thing to nail down is the track. The NAM actually shifted the snow axis well eastward. It moved towards the Euro quite a bit, but quite a bit to go. My guess is a blend of the GFS and Euro would be a decent solution right now. Even if it put 4' of snow IMBY, I wouldn't trust the NAM at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM looks almost identical to its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The extreme E to W downslope over the spine of the Apps with the latest run of the NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS reminds me of the Jan 2016 Blizzard. Though in the case of that the low transitioned to the coast by Charleston rather than running up to swva then shifting to the Outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just looking at the mslp low location, the NAM(18z and 0z) is dragging its heals when forming the coastal. No global ensemble has anything evolution that looks like that. Again, I strongly suspect it is too far west of sensible modeling. GFS/Euro blend looks wise to me. That doesn't mean downscoping won't exist east of 81/75. But if this turns out to be a Miller A, that NAM run is sheared out compared to what it will potentially become. I still think this becomes an inland runner. Energy handoff could be a problem, but for now I am only seeing the NAM with that issue. It may or may not appear on other modeling, but that is an outlier solution to this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The 0z RGEM looks nothing like the 0z NAM. More of a Miller A. It can amp some, but not like the NAM. Reasonable solution, if not maybe a hair east of where this track eventually ends up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 So right now, it is the RGEM/EPS/Euro/GEFS in one camp in terms of tracks. The GFS is another camp. The NAM is on its own. This will be a really good model test. Have the rolls reversed? IDK, but we are about to find out.... Been a while since we have seen the NAM at range out duel every other model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now