snowbird1230 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: No longer a Sevier County exclusive snowhole, I would accept 4-6 inches. Tellico's gonna like that map!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: They don’t know. They literally said “your guess is as good as mine” to where the snow sets up at. They also said the mods are all over the place with the track. I’m not clamoring to be something I’m not but I felt like multiple mods where very similar in the track now. Maybe that’s not true though. . I agree. Not sure what they expect. Also when did any snow accumulations over 8” become unbelievable & that stuff on the internet? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I agree. Not sure what they expect. Also when did any snow accumulations over 8” become unbelievable & that stuff on the internet? Would be hilarious if they ended up with 8+ inches . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Tellico's gonna like that map!! That verifies I’m buying lottery tickets 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That verifies I’m buying lottery tickets Not for a while . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WVLT says no worries just rain for the valley, all the way to Knox lol! I would like to know what they are looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Kasper said: WVLT says no worries just rain for the valley, all the way to Knox lol! I would like to know what they are looking at. History. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Kasper said: WVLT says no worries just rain for the valley, all the way to Knox lol! I would like to know what they are looking at. No one is going to stick their neck out before the NWS puts out a winter product. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Would be hilarious if they ended up with 8+ inches . Parts of their CWA got 10 inches last storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: No one is going to stick their neck out before the NWS puts out a winter product. I know but it’s just funny to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 TV Mets are really just awful. I often wonder if they feel bad inside with what they are saying. This should probably be spoken of as a serious winter threat with the potential that it doesn't happen rather than outright dismissal going on right now. As of now TV Mets are saying "the tops of the mountains may see enough to sled on but no worries anywhere else". The potential impact to the power grid is significant if even half the amount shown by most models gets on trees and power lines. I'm not really confident that any where gets 10+ inches but it looks very possible for some isolated places. I find it odd NWS Nashville is that dismissive of the possibility after parts of their CWA got 8-10 last storm and this one has a higher potential for big totals by all appearances. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 National Weather Service Jackson KY 500 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 500 PM EST THU JAN 13 2022 Lots of uncertainty remains with the well-advertised weekend system. The systems upper level and surface low track would typically favor heavy snow across our area this time of the year. However, this is not a slam dunk scenario this time due to the complex low structure, which in many solutions could lead to an above-freezing warm nose intrusion and possible downsloping off of the Great Smoky Mountains. These poorly resolved issues continued to plague the 12z NWP output. Model agreement should improve over the next 24 hours as the system, which just came ashore the Pacific Northwest, is better sampled by RAOBs and surface-based obs. The latest model suite analysis shows our system of concern over the South Central US by 12z Saturday. The 545 dam low, embedded with in a positively tilted trough extending SW from the Great Lakes, will be spinning over KS/OK while supporting a surface low situated near/over the Ark-La-Tex. Meanwhile, cold Canadian high pressure will be over the Eastern Great Lakes/Ottawa Valley. Cold northeasterly low-level flow on the periphery of this high will seep into the Ohio Valley through the day on Saturday. Simultaneously, mid-level WAA should develop ahead of the system leading to increased mid to high cloud cover. Cannot rule out a bit of light snowfall from this mid-level forcing but whether that actually reaches the ground will strongly depend upon how dry lower levels become under the shallow CAA -- some guidance suggests teens or single digit dew points filtering into the Commonwealth by Saturday evening. Heading through Saturday night and early Sunday morning, WAA will intensify ahead of the surface low as it moves into the TN valley and occludes. A new triple point low takes shape along the Gulf Coast. A warm nose attempts to push northward into Eastern Kentucky early Sunday as the original occluded low drifts into eastern TN and fills. The warm noses depth and degree of warmth is still very uncertain and just a few degrees difference would support anything from rain to freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow. The warm nose might be enhanced by the southeasterly downslope flow off of the Southern Appalachians as well. The remnant surface low and warm nose fades later in the day as low-level winds turn more easterly in response to the passage of the 850 mb low. Meanwhile, the triple point low becomes the primary surface circulation and rapidly consolidates/deepens over the Carolinas under the favorable right entrance region of a 300mb jet. As this occurs, several of the models hint at the potential for frontogenetic banding along the back size of the system, associated with a deformation zone. This deformation band, depending upon where it occurs, could be best opportunity for locations to pick up a heavy accumulating snow later Sunday afternoon and evening. Snowfall with this system should be fairly heavy and dense (low SLR) given the likelihood for a deep riming and aggregation layer below 700 mb. Needless to say, the weekend forecast remains low confidence at this time. Once the system departs early Monday, another quick-moving shortwave will bring the potential for some light precipitation later Monday -- likely in the the form of upslope snow showers and flurries on modest west to northwest CAA. Surface high pressure returns with quiet and seasonably cool weather by Tuesday. The next chance for rain and snow returns Wednesday or Thursday with a cold front and postfrontal upslope. High temperatures will be very typical of mid January with highs mainly in the 30s, except in the 40s on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Lows will mostly be in the 20s. The colder sheltered valleys could drop into the teens Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: Parts of their CWA got 10 inches last storm. I got 8" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Parts of their CWA got 10 inches last storm. A buddy of mine lives in Mt Juliet where the NWS is and he got 7.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 47 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Tellico's gonna like that map!! Lol...im still on the fence, even tho it looks a lot better now then 24-36 hrs ago. As long as models keep showing that 850 jumping north (even if very weak), I'm leary of any solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hows the 18z euro looking ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Kentucky said: National Weather Service Jackson KY 500 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 500 PM EST THU JAN 13 2022 Lots of uncertainty remains with the well-advertised weekend system. The systems upper level and surface low track would typically favor heavy snow across our area this time of the year. However, this is not a slam dunk scenario this time due to the complex low structure, which in many solutions could lead to an above-freezing warm nose intrusion and possible downsloping off of the Great Smoky Mountains. These poorly resolved issues continued to plague the 12z NWP output. Model agreement should improve over the next 24 hours as the system, which just came ashore the Pacific Northwest, is better sampled by RAOBs and surface-based obs. The latest model suite analysis shows our system of concern over the South Central US by 12z Saturday. The 545 dam low, embedded with in a positively tilted trough extending SW from the Great Lakes, will be spinning over KS/OK while supporting a surface low situated near/over the Ark-La-Tex. Meanwhile, cold Canadian high pressure will be over the Eastern Great Lakes/Ottawa Valley. Cold northeasterly low-level flow on the periphery of this high will seep into the Ohio Valley through the day on Saturday. Simultaneously, mid-level WAA should develop ahead of the system leading to increased mid to high cloud cover. Cannot rule out a bit of light snowfall from this mid-level forcing but whether that actually reaches the ground will strongly depend upon how dry lower levels become under the shallow CAA -- some guidance suggests teens or single digit dew points filtering into the Commonwealth by Saturday evening. Heading through Saturday night and early Sunday morning, WAA will intensify ahead of the surface low as it moves into the TN valley and occludes. A new triple point low takes shape along the Gulf Coast. A warm nose attempts to push northward into Eastern Kentucky early Sunday as the original occluded low drifts into eastern TN and fills. The warm noses depth and degree of warmth is still very uncertain and just a few degrees difference would support anything from rain to freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow. The warm nose might be enhanced by the southeasterly downslope flow off of the Southern Appalachians as well. The remnant surface low and warm nose fades later in the day as low-level winds turn more easterly in response to the passage of the 850 mb low. Meanwhile, the triple point low becomes the primary surface circulation and rapidly consolidates/deepens over the Carolinas under the favorable right entrance region of a 300mb jet. As this occurs, several of the models hint at the potential for frontogenetic banding along the back size of the system, associated with a deformation zone. This deformation band, depending upon where it occurs, could be best opportunity for locations to pick up a heavy accumulating snow later Sunday afternoon and evening. Snowfall with this system should be fairly heavy and dense (low SLR) given the likelihood for a deep riming and aggregation layer below 700 mb. Needless to say, the weekend forecast remains low confidence at this time. Once the system departs early Monday, another quick-moving shortwave will bring the potential for some light precipitation later Monday -- likely in the the form of upslope snow showers and flurries on modest west to northwest CAA. Surface high pressure returns with quiet and seasonably cool weather by Tuesday. The next chance for rain and snow returns Wednesday or Thursday with a cold front and postfrontal upslope. High temperatures will be very typical of mid January with highs mainly in the 30s, except in the 40s on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Lows will mostly be in the 20s. The colder sheltered valleys could drop into the teens Monday night and early Tuesday morning. If Eastern Kentucky gets downsloped by the Smokies we are in a Day After Tomorrow Scenario. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS is not as enthused about middle and west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Weather channel forecast for me has 3-5 inches of snow Saturday night and 5-8 inches on Sunday...wish I could believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WATE is using the Hinkin 5000 model. It has the low going to Cincinnati and he said the cold was only going to be there for the south toward Georgia and for West Tennessee. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I've not watched WATE in ages, but I remember them being astronomically bad at weather forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WATE is using the Hinkin 5000 model. It has the low going to Cincinnati and he said the cold was only going to be there for the south toward Georgia and for West Tennessee. Must be the same in-house models they use in Chattanooga. Locals are saying rain with a possible mix on Sunday with a chance of light snow. They have the low basically just south of the Tennessee border moving NE towards Knoxville with all the snow way north and west. They also showed heavy snow just to our south and east into Georgia and SC/NC border. They did mention a much further southern track would allow for more snow. They are leaning to a little snow possible late Sunday with more in the higher elevations of east Tennessee. They said it "could" change but I guess they are playing it safe.David Glenn on WTVC is very good. He showed the minimal but said he's closely watching Sunday as he laughed. He knows it's possible.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Uncle Nasty said: Must be the same in-house models they use in Chattanooga. Locals are saying rain with a possible mix on Sunday with a chance of light snow. They have the low basically just south of the Tennessee border moving NE towards Knoxville with all the snow way north and west. They also showed heavy snow just to our south and east in to Georgia and SC/NC border. They did mention a much further southern track would allow for more snow. They are leaning to a little snow possible late Sunday with more in the higher elevations of east Tennessee. They said it "could" change but I guess they are playing it safe. David Glenn on WTVC is very good. He showed the minimal but said he's closely watching Sunday as he laughed. He knows it's possible. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk WATE showed the low move from just south of Memphis to Nashville then to Cincinnati. then it transferred to off the Carolina coast. He said the back side snow chance was slim because of the path of the low then the transfer would rob it of it's energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: WATE showed the low move from just south of Memphis to Nashville then to Cincinnati. then it transferred to off the Carolina coast. He said the back side snow chance was slim because of the path of the low then the transfer would rob it of it's energy. What models are these guys looking at I haven't seen 1 model do that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: I've not watched WATE in ages, but I remember them being astronomically bad at weather forecasts. Hinkin is the most ultra conservative met ever and he was the lead man at WATE for 31 years. He retired last August but his viewpoint seems to have lived on there. His most famous call ever is telling people not to believe the forecasts of a blizzard in March 1993. He said there was no way a wide spread 12+ inch snow was happening, and to expect 6 inches with some isolated higher spots. This was 12 hours before it hit. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here's the 12z Euro for KCHA...let's see what 18z has for us 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, John1122 said: If Eastern Kentucky gets downsloped by the Smokies we are in a Day After Tomorrow Scenario. Exactly man ! Lol. How embarrassing on their part. What's going on with them. It's a shame what's happened to many "pro's" these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 42 minutes ago, John1122 said: WATE is using the Hinkin 5000 model. It has the low going to Cincinnati and he said the cold was only going to be there for the south toward Georgia and for West Tennessee. They showed the low going through Memphis?? Is that being backed up anywhere? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: What models are these guys looking at I haven't seen 1 model do that. I assume it's some in house graphics. He just had the big L going almost over Memphis to Nashville to Cincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, John1122 said: WATE showed the low move from just south of Memphis to Nashville then to Cincinnati. then it transferred to off the Carolina coast. He said the back side snow chance was slim because of the path of the low then the transfer would rob it of it's energy. Sorry I had the TV on WATE and rewound it after your initial comments and paused immediately when I saw the low in Memphis. Then after I unpaused it I saw that it somehow got even worse when it went straight up to Nashville lol. I haven't seen anything even close to that on any of the outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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