Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z NAM is north of its 12z run and the warm nose is howling. On to the next run. Always tough to know if the NAM is onto something or just amped. Would have like to have seen some consistency there. Looks a lot like the amped GFS runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At 72 the low is in Gatlinburg and its snowing where I am in loudon. Then new low forms of the coast not seen this happen on any runs so far have we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I don't think a Low is going to sit and spin over Mt LeConte for 6 hours but I guess maybe? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Didn't expect that, but it is what it is. I don't like losing a short range model, but it is still at range. Middle and west TN should still do well with that track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z NAM is north of its 12z run and the warm nose is howling. On to the next run. Always tough to know if the NAM is onto something or just amped. Would have like to have seen some consistency there. Looks a lot like the amped GFS runs. I am liking that run for sure looks good for my area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It substantially lowered totals for Athens, but I'd take 2.8 in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Didn't expect that, but it is what it is. I don't like losing a short range model, but it is still at range. Middle and west TN should still do well with that track. Looks to me it's off the deep end on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It's wonky but still has about 10 inches falling here with a freezing rain interlude. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I am not really buying that run of the NAM. Just does not seem like a common track at all. The LP starts north, goes south, then back north? Any relevant historical analogues to support this track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m literally probably gonna have a stroke by Sunday watching this system! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kasper said: I’m literally probably gonna have a stroke by Sunday watching this system! You and me both, brother. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Kentucky said: about .30 of ice Feb 20th-21th on top of about 7-8 inches of snow that had fell a couple days earlier if I remember correctly. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/20150221_stormsummary 15 to 20" here b4 changeover with that one. Alot of structure damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Kentucky said: about .30 of ice Feb 20th-21th on top of about 7-8 inches of snow that had fell a couple days earlier if I remember correctly. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/20150221_stormsummary My bad, I was looking at the year wrong lol. I thought you were referring to February 20-21, 2021. Yes, we started as snow, then sleet, and then heavy freezing rain in the February 21, 2015 storm. Woke up with no power and trees laying everywhere with over an inch of ice on everything. I'd say it tied the Feb 1998 snowstorm we had in SEKY where I lived for the worst storm I've been in. Our vehicle was pretty much glued to the ground (Sorry to derail thread for a sec). East TN did get mostly snow out of it, even in the valley ares. Definitely was a weird one. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: My bad, I was looking at the year wrong lol. I thought you were referring to February 20-21, 2021. Yes, we started as snow, then sleet, and then heavy freezing rain in the February 21, 2015 storm. Woke up with no power and trees laying everywhere with over an inch of ice on everything. I'd say it tied the Feb 1998 snowstorm we had in SEKY where I lived for the worst storm I've been in. Our vehicle was pretty much glued to the ground (Sorry to derail thread for a sec). East TN did get mostly snow out of it, even in the valley ares. Definitely was a weird one. I’m sorry but is that a P…… 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The RAP loves tossing out big runs until about 8 hours before the event. We may see some 2 ft clowns from it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: My bad, I was looking at the year wrong lol. I thought you were referring to February 20-21, 2021. Yes, we started as snow, then sleet, and then heavy freezing rain in the February 21, 2015 storm. Woke up with no power and trees laying everywhere with over an inch of ice on everything. I'd say it tied the Feb 1998 snowstorm we had in SEKY where I lived for the worst storm I've been in. Our vehicle was pretty much glued to the ground (Sorry to derail thread for a sec). East TN did get mostly snow out of it, even in the valley ares. Definitely was a weird one. the confusion may have been on my end, fascinating photos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The RAP loves tossing out big runs until about 8 hours before the event. We may see some 2 ft clowns from it. Is it running right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RGEM looked better with the vort and 850 low: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is it just me or is that vort riding behind the main storm looking pretty good too? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Is it running right now? It won't be in range for another day for the 51 hour run. It won't see the whole event until Friday night or Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said: Is it just me or is that vort riding behind the main storm looking pretty good too? That might be the system Carvers was talking about earlier, but not sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RGEM looked better with the vort and 850 low: I was thinking it looked good and was also catching up to our storm. Could be quite productive if that secondary system threw some moisture in our area while we are still in a NW flow mode. Edit: for some reason I quoted the wrong post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 000 FXUS64 KOHX 132118 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 318 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 .DISCUSSION... UGH! What a hard and challenging forecast. The upper impulse will continue to move through the area for the next couple of hours and skies should clear out a bit overnight. Tomorrow /Friday/ will be dry. Now here comes the challenges! The models are still all over the place with no consistency to each other or even to themselves. The NAM low had been moving north to come in line better with the GFS and EURO but not the 12/18Z runs. Was hoping there would be some kind of meeting in the middle for the models...but no luck as of right now. The previous forecast had the heaviest snow over NW Tennessee and along the TN/KY state line. Current forecast now has the heaviest snow over the Plateau. Let/s go with there will be a band of heavier snow somewhere around I-40 and north. Where...your guess is as good as mine. The higher amounts look to be in the 4-6" range...not some of the crazier high end extreme amounts floating around the internet right now. Friday night into Saturday expect a really cold rain maybe with a few flurries mixed in. It will take some time for the boundary layer to cool down and moisten up. If any snow falls no accumulations expected. With highs on Saturday in the 40s it will be raining until possible late afternoon where there could be a rain/snow mix first starting in the Fentress/Picket county areas then spreading down the Plateau and west across the KY/TN state line. That rain snow mix continues southward overnight and changes to all snow for I-40 northward and the Plateau. The system pulls out Sunday night and morning lows on Monday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Would expect there will be some travel issues Sunday night and maybe into Monday. Highs on Monday in the 30s...so there could be some residual wintery stuff around. Lows Monday night into Tuesday continued cold in the 20s...but highs on Tuesday in the 40s so everything should melt. There is another short wave Wednesday and Wednesday night. Chance PoP no really QPF expected at this time. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. Mid clouds and a few sprinkles will move across terminals this afternoon, but conditions should remain VFR at all sites. CSV could see some fog development early Friday morning thanks to the additional moisture pumped in by this afternoon`s wave. Visibilities may fall for a few hours around sunrise. Winds will be out of the northwest around 5 to 10 knots today, then become lighter and more northerly overnight tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nashville latest Discussion basically says not much accumulation unless your on Plateau and I40 North for middle tenn. Really No Snow for I40 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: RGEM looked better with the vort and 850 low: I can't say I have ever seen a tightly wrapped 850 in east central Alabama suddenly go all kidney bean look and barf all over east TN, but I think the energy behind it is interacting with it and causing it to pull more north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nashville latest Discussion basically says not much accumulation unless your on Plateau and I40 North for middle tenn. Really No Snow for I40 south. They don’t know. They literally said “your guess is as good as mine” to where the snow sets up at. They also said the mods are all over the place with the track. I’m not clamoring to be something I’m not but I felt like multiple mods where very similar in the track now. Maybe that’s not true though. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gfs 18z gives me 7 to 8 in loudon I'll cash out meanwhile knox gets 2 inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 No longer a Sevier County exclusive snowhole, I would accept 4-6 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: No longer a Sevier County exclusive snowhole, I would accept 4-6 inches. Um that doesnt look like the forecast that Nashville is referencing, must be more of the "stuff" on the internet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NWS Memphis had this below to say in their special weather statement for west Tennessee. Also- Winter storm watches now up for about 10 counties in north central Arkansas as well. ...Winter Storm to impact the Mid-South This Weekend... A potent upper level low pressure system will move into the Mid-South this weekend. Rain will begin to mix with snow across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel Saturday afternoon and will change to all snow by sunset Saturday evening. The transition from rain to snow will occur across the rest of the Mid-South from west to east Saturday Night into Sunday as colder temperatures spread into the region. It is too early to pinpoint exact amounts and locations of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall amounts will be heavily dependent on the exact track of the system. At this time, it appears the greatest potential for a moderate to significant snowfall will occur across areas along and north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line. However, all the Mid-South will likely see winter weather impacts with this system. Travel will become hazardous Saturday Night into Sunday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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