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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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7 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said:

What is everyones thoughts on snowfall and/or ice fall for Bell County (2 miles from the Clay line)?

 

Does it appear that our chances are shrinking as well? Be honest, I will take it the best I can :unsure:

Rain with light snow showers on the back end. 

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11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Right now, if the 0z NAM is correct, I am not even sure I get very much precip of any kind.  Been this way all summer and fall and early winter.  There are places in TRI where they get nothing more than a passing shower with this system.  La Nina is just dry here for many systems.  Doubt that verifies, but who knows!  LOL.  The downslope issue looks way overdone to me.  Wonder if there is a feedback error there.  We will certainly deal with it, but not sure I have ever seen a storm look like the NAM and HRRR have it.  Very similar to last winter where the cold/snow stayed west of the Plateau.  That said, I think that changes after the 20th.  

That damn rip that starts in the great valley is like a tear in the time-space continuum.  I don't even think Snowshoe would see precip, it's almost like an eyewall in a hurricane.  What will keep me watching till the bitter end is my disbelief that the storm track is right up the Apps.

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2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

You can see how the trailing system opens up the path for this to get pulled more NW vs 0z (weakness over KY/IL/IN..wouldn't put it past turning into a cutter west of the Apps before all is said and done.

Screenshot_20220114-215220_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20220114-215316_Chrome.jpg

Probably take a well known path up the great Valley. Rich get richer. Central Tn into Ky special

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Monterey or Jamestown would surely be better than Livingston? I mean maybe not with this system but they do have elevation on their side over Livingston. Along with NW Cumberland.

I’m not sure if they have elevation. Part of my reason was I have a friend there. He got between 7-8” last go around.


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6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

For what it's worth WPC's forecast track for the low. This was issued before 0z though so we'll see if they adjust their track.f62a80ebd2e6dcd95af49a0bab7a5d78.jpg

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RGEM is still following this path. Model madness continues!

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5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


I’m not sure if they have elevation. Part of my reason was I have a friend there. He got between 7-8” last go around.


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Yeah sometimes they get a lot depending on the track but usually the Plateau areas will always outdo Livingston. Cookeville also fared well the last two events which is uncommon for them as well. The Plateau areas still averaged 4-7" in each of the two snowfalls though, but a line from Murfreesboro to Livingston was on the higher end it sounded like. If there is a good place in Tennessee Sunday, Livingston looks to be up there again.  And you probably will have to drive through Crossville and Monterey to get to Livingston anyway so you can see if it's worth continuing on lol.

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