Matthew70 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Must have misunderstood them ? https://x-default-stgec.uplynk.com/ausw/slices/ee7/9ca48a3b38ef42538c6fe52a659b1e99/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559_e.mp4 Thanks. She’s annoying. I watch WSMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Chattywarmnose said: That lady sucks That station does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: That station does. I mean she just has a terrible attitude and seemed super condescending 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That's true too, there are so many variables that's why I was a little uneasy about interpreting it. One thing is slightly different, but how does that impact the other players on the field?So much to digest…. And we haven’t thought about what that does with the temps. I hope Mother Nature breaks the mold with this one. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Usually I feel pretty good for KTRI versus the rest of the eastern Valley, even with an annoying 850 nose. But I honestly have no idea what to expect with this one. Obviously we're in a better location than areas southwest for MRX (Knoxville, Maryville, down to Chattanooga., etc.), if we can get rates to pump and negate that sloppy downslope potential. This system has a small chance to overperform for the eastern Valley like '96 if that 850 slows and digs further south than modeled. But it could also just not overcome the nose at all. So, again, I have no idea on this one. Uncomfortable to make a call. Too much sour modeling to get excited myself. I will say if we squeeze out anything more than 3+", it's a win. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I asked you because your elevator goes higher than mine Anyway my first thought was slower meant more interaction with the trailing wave which would/could pull it further north. . Elevator, Hell I’m on stairs lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 There’s one thing that is certain. This group has done a hell of a job covering this. None the less willing this thing to possibly happen. . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 There’s one thing that is certain. This group has done a hell of a job covering this. None the less willing this thing to possibly happen. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Usually I feel pretty good for KTRI versus the rest of the eastern Valley, even with an annoying 850 nose. But I honestly have no idea what to expect with this one. Obviously we're in a better location than areas southwest for MRX (Knoxville, Maryville, down to Chattanooga., etc.), if we can get rates to pump and negate that sloppy downslope potential. This system has a small chance to overperform for the eastern Valley like '96 if that 850 slows and digs further south than modeled. But it could also just not overcome the nose at all. So, again, I have no idea on this one. Uncomfortable to make a call. Too much sour modeling to get excited myself. I will say if we squeeze out anything more than 3+", it's a win. Man, I have set the bar at 1" of snow. LOL. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Man, I have set the bar at 1" of snow. LOL.Haha yeah but we've already had some 1 and 2 inchers. I'll set the bar at 3" and be let down. lol.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, I have set the bar at 1" of snow. LOL. That’s my threshold for every event. The situation is dire down here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Usually I feel pretty good for KTRI versus the rest of the eastern Valley, even with an annoying 850 nose. But I honestly have no idea what to expect with this one. Obviously we're in a better location than areas southwest for MRX (Knoxville, Maryville, down to Chattanooga., etc.), if we can get rates to pump and negate that sloppy downslope potential. This system has a small chance to overperform for the eastern Valley like '96 if that 850 slows and digs further south than modeled. But it could also just not overcome the nose at all. So, again, I have no idea on this one. Uncomfortable to make a call. Too much sour modeling to get excited myself. I will say if we squeeze out anything more than 3+", it's a win. SWVA folks might be able to hold on to the upper levels but I doubt it with current guidance especially south of the state line. Our best chance is on the back end with the TROWAL. Even then it's a pyrrhic victory for the far east of the sub forum leaving the plateau and west outta the picture. As it stands nothing in the tri-cities looks right. If I get 2" up my way I'm happy and if I get 4+ I'm ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 18z Euro is just smoking western and midstate areas. I don't know who will cave or just be wrong out that way, but something has to give between the almost nothing models and the Euro giving Memphis 8-10 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 18z Euro is just smoking western and midstate areas. I don't know who will cave or just be wrong out that way, but something has to give between the almost nothing models and the Euro giving Memphis 8-10 inches. Is it transferring energy to the coast or running the mountains?I’d look myself but I’m in a big poker game . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, I have set the bar at 1" of snow. LOL. 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, I have set the bar at 1" of snow. LOL. Haha yeah but we've already had some 1 and 2 inchers. I'll set the bar at 3" and be let down. lol.. 5 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: That’s my threshold for every event. The situation is dire down here. I've received about 0.5" for each of the last storms. My bar is set at 0.75". I'm throwing at party at 1". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 My modeled floor is 4 inches. Max 9ish in today's runs. I have 0 confidence in any accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m still laughing at this forecaster out in northern MS. He has the whole area even up to Nashville with nothing to 1”. . Then a small heavier band. Very small. He’s making sure he’s right. That way someone gets nothing to 1”. He can say nailed it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I will say judging by radar returns in the midwest, this system looks pretty robust 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Is it transferring energy to the coast or running the mountains? I’d look myself but I’m in a big poker game . Hope u cash in....uh, unless it's strip, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Check out WxSouth on FB. He posted about 45 min ago the track of the upper level low. Looks pretty good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 00z HRRR just ran the low straight into the mountains and never transferred to the coast. When it ended, it was a 997 low sitting in West Virginia. It's the HRRR at long range....but don't think I've ever seen a low do that before. Needless to say, it wasn't a good run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Wurbus said: The 00z HRRR just ran the low straight into the mountains and never transferred to the coast. When it ended, it was a 997 low sitting in West Virginia. It's the HRRR at long range....but don't think I've ever seen a low do that before. Needless to say, it wasn't a good run. It was still snowing at the end of the run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, Wurbus said: The 00z HRRR just ran the low straight into the mountains and never transferred to the coast. When it ended, it was a 997 low sitting in West Virginia. It's the HRRR at long range....but don't think I've ever seen a low do that before. Needless to say, it wasn't a good run. NAM doing the same through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Don't even have to look at models to know it's not good by how quiet it is in here lol. 12z kept hope alive but 00z is literally raining on the parade. Think it's time to throw in the towel east of the plateau. edit; wow nam and hrrr have slaughtered snow totals for this event. Reserved to the absolute highest peaks of Western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, I have set the bar at 1" of snow. LOL. Haha yeah but we've already had some 1 and 2 inchers. I'll set the bar at 3" and be let down. lol.. Man, I have had 0" and a 1.5" snow so far - prob two in the grass. Second storm felt like a blizzard when we got over an 1". My total for the year is 1.5 - 2". LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looking like just some backside snow showers for the valley at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 00Z NAM goes boom for Middle and West TN.. Not looking good for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Right now, if the 0z NAM is correct, I am not even sure I get very much precip of any kind. Been this way all summer and fall and early winter. There are places in TRI where they get nothing more than a passing shower with this system. La Nina is just dry here for many systems. Doubt that verifies, but who knows! LOL. The downslope issue looks way overdone to me. Wonder if there is a feedback error there. We will certainly deal with it, but not sure I have ever seen a storm look like the NAM and HRRR have it. Very similar to last winter where the cold/snow stayed west of the Plateau. That said, I think that changes after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Might have to chase from Seymour. Hmm where to go is the question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Reb said: Might have to chase from Seymour. Hmm where to go is the question To NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now