Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The 0z GFS is rolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It seems like each model has its favorite snow hole. The Canadian models have Roane County in the cross hairs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Out to 15 and I normally don't do PBP at this early hour in a run where the storm is over 40 away....the 0z GFS at 15 looks a hair quicker. Sometimes those small changes early can lead to other changes down the line. We will see.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Both 0z NAM and 0z RGEM @66...both take a low right into the Smokies. RGEM started having it on the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Warm nose really showing up on the WVLT in house model . 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Both 0z NAM and 0z RGEM @66...both take a low right into the Smokies. RGEM started having it on the 18z run. I am going to have to go back and look, I thought the MSLP looked quite different on the RGEM. There is a faint hint of residual low pressure even on the 18z Euro. The NAM held it there a lot longer, but I will go back and look. RGEM looks like it got the secondary going more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Warm nose really showing up on the WVLT in house model . If that's real I don't even know what to say.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If that's real I don't even know what to say..Yeah it’s real. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS is warmer than the NAM through 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Further south but downsloping eastern areas on the front end. Huge deform band in middle Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If we can really get that low to cut up through Central North Carolina, we can make big hay on the back end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Both 0z NAM and 0z RGEM @66...both take a low right into the Smokies. RGEM started having it on the 18z run. Here are the same hours....Secondary is already forming with the RGEM. Nam is a strung out mess with the primary still going strong over the Smokies. RGEM is actually a great track. Hand off issues withe these big storms are the norm for NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What is pulling the low up and almost straight vertical due north from lower exteeme southeast alabama? If we could get rid of that wiggle most of us in East tn would be in great shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bigbald said: What is pulling the low up and almost straight vertical due north from lower exteeme southeast alabama? If we could get rid of that wiggle most of us in East tn would be in great shape. Need a stronger high over the top or a faster system IMO. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Someone tell me about the NMB. Which suites does it blend? Does it blend the current only, multiple suites, or suites pre-0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just looking at the past two 0z runs of the GFS, it has trended away from a shadow low heading through E TN. It has been a slow but steady trend. We will see where the Euro goes, but it is has pretty much moved to the Euro track now. Looks a lot like the track of the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Someone tell me about the NMB. Which suites does it blend? Does it blend the current only, multiple suites, or suites pre-0z? I'm not sure what all goes into it. Jeff may know. It's where the point forecasts come from I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Models historically have underestimated Gulf moisturize when these type systems tap the Gulf. Think about that. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, mempho said: Models historically have underestimated Gulf moisturize when these type systems tap the Gulf. Think about that. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk As long as there is not convection along the GOM, very much agree. The first storm, we got robbed in NE TN when convection popped there and cut of our tap! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm not sure what all goes into it. Jeff may know. It's where the point forecasts come from I believe. For folks who have WxBell, they have that model. I kind of like how it works, but just don't know if it will catch trends if it doesn't include the current suite. So, I am not sure how useful it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It is possible that we leave the 0z suite with a reasonable cone for a slp track. Once that happens, we can worry about slp strength, downslope, etc. Middle TN and the Plateau look to be great spots. E TN is still very much an unknown. If we get an inland runner track(and the primary doesn't hold on for too long over the Smokies which allows for the secondary to form further south than the NAM), a strong secondary slp would overcome lots of problems. As is, the inland runner track looks to be a "go." Just need that storm to get going over SC and not NC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: For folks who have WxBell, they have that model. I kind of like how it works, but just don't know if it will catch trends if it doesn't include the current suite. So, I am not sure how useful it is. "WHAT IS NBM? The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation." I would guess it's the NAM/GFS family + the Euro suite. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: It is possible that we leave the 0z suite with a reasonable cone for a slp track. Once that happens, we can worry about slp strength, downslope, etc. Middle TN and the Plateau look to be great spots. E TN is still very much an unknown. If we get an inland runner track(and the primary doesn't hold on for too long over the Smokies which allows for the secondary to form further south than the NAM), a strong secondary slp would overcome lots of problems. As is, the inland runner track looks to be a "go." Just need that storm to get going over SC and not NC. I'd love to see it track from Columbia to Danville Virginia. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Unless I am seeing things and it is late, the CMC looks like it is about to be a Miller A. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah, that is a pretty clean pass of the 0z CMC. That is basically a Miller A. So, take the CMC from the GFS camp and move it to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Unless I am seeing things and it is late, the CMC looks like it is about to be a Miller A. Yeah, looks good. Check the band over the plateau at 66. Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 And if you want to see the SE trend, go to 72 on TT and toggle back several runs. Major shift by that model. IF(and huge if given modeling being the way it is...fickle at times), the Euro may well have nailed this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I hope for all our sakes a Canadian solution comes to pass. That's solid for the whole forum basically. I'll take a few less inches if everyone gets more. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, John1122 said: I hope for all our sakes a Canadian solution comes to pass. That's solid for the whole forum basically. I'll take a few less inches if everyone gets more. Looks like the Euro track. So the 0z GFS/NAM are kind of on their own. We will see what the Euro does in a bit. May set an alarm for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Yeah, looks good. Check the band over the plateau at 66. Wow! I am trying to not get excited on the plateau. Dry slot killed us on the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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