Wurbus Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We have 2 camps at this moment. GFS/CMC is showing the low meandering across TN while it transfers to NC/VA and most everyone in TN gets mostly rain. The other scenario is Euro/UKmet/GEFS showing the low further south into mid-Mississippi and then transferring to around Myrtle Beach and brings all types of wintry precip from Memphis to Kingsport across the state. GFS Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm glad you started this. It's worthwhile to have regardless of the final outcome. Definitely an interesting model battle. I think we always tend to side with the models that don't show the most wintery outcome because we are used to that happening. If the Euro/UKIE/GEFS were showing nothing and the Canadian/GFS were showing a major winter storm we'd not believe it was happening either. I think we have several more days of model madness to come. The NAM will probably be amped and in Indiana. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z EPS low locations: In meetings this AM, did I miss all the fun, lol? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 EPS members at hr 120: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well… I know we are down to only a couple of options that are on our side but I will roll the dice with the Euro most of the time. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 EPS slp placement barely moved compared to 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff H Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I believe I’m in good spot for heavy snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Well… I know we are down to only a couple of options that are on our side but I will roll the dice with the Euro most of the time. . We have more on our side currently than not. Won't affect which, if any, are correct but it's GFS/Canadian OP vs everything else right now for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is like overtime in college football. We got our 2pt conversion with the Euro. Now to 18z, to see if the GFS converts or folds. The 12z GEFS rejoined the Euro camp. The models with the newer updates are the GFS and CMC. They are either too amped, or their updates have better physics in the region. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Normally, I would never even give a GFS/CMC combo any weight in comparison a Euro/UK/GEFS/EPS combo. I mean that last combo is stout. I would throw out the GFS/CMC solutions or minimize their influence in my thinking. However, they have done ok with the past couple of storms. Seems like the Euro woefully missed the warm-nose for E TN. Not sure the GFS did much better though! That said, this will be a test of those models as they were recently updated. FTR, I am not sure the GEFS received the update or not. Seems like it was supposed to, but I never checked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 EPS Mean once more solid for the whole forum area basically. Snow still falling as of this moment Eastern half of the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Didn't the CMC try to ice our kicker earlier today? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m waiting on @Stovepipe to confirm this storm before I get too excited 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Didn't the CMC try to ice our kicker earlier today? Yep, delayed their release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is like overtime in college football. We got our 2pt conversion with the Euro. Now to 18z, to see if the GFS converts or folds. The 12z GEFS rejoined the Euro camp. The models with the newer updates are the GFS and CMC. They are either too amped, or their updates have better physics in the region. The GFS is the more unbelievable outcome to me, just in the fact that it dumps close to 30 inches of snow in Western Kentucky. Those extremes rarely ever happen in the weather world. I'd guess right now it's just too amped, I honestly wonder if they didn't give it some of the NAM physics when they upgraded the resolution. We would see the Para just amp up and double up on QPF plenty of times before it became the normal op. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GFS is the more unbelievable outcome to me, just in the fact that it dumps close to 30 inches of snow in Western Kentucky. Those extremes rarely ever happen in the weather world. I'd guess right now it's just too amped, I honestly wonder if they didn't give it some of the NAM physics when they upgraded the resolution. We would see the Para just amp up and double up on QPF plenty of times before it became the normal op. Yep forgot about that. I do think it does a better job with the warm-nose(maybe Jeff said that in the other thread). But tough right now to discount the steady Euro run which actually has support from the GEFS and its own EPS. Guessing one of the two blinks by 0z. There is an argument to be made that it will cut, but that almost requires an amped solution over Louisiana. And the model with amping problems is the one cutting it. Tough call. Never thought I would see the day where the Euro has the consistently most progressive model run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The way this storm has bounced, the 6z RGEM Saturday is going to run the GFS's attempted winning field goal back for a touchdown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 A few more 15z SREF members see snow in Crossville than at 9z. I guess that's something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: A few more 15z SREF members see snow in Crossville than at 9z. I guess that's something. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I put very very little stock in it, but the JMA has the LP over Panama or Tallahassee area and 850s well south of the forum area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Wurbus said: We have 2 camps at this moment. GFS/CMC is showing the low meandering across TN while it transfers to NC/VA and most everyone in TN gets mostly rain. The other scenario is Euro/UKmet/GEFS showing the low further south into mid-Mississippi and then transferring to around Myrtle Beach and brings all types of wintry precip from Memphis to Kingsport across the state. GFS Euro Sevier County snowhole occurs and I am moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 56 minutes ago, Chattywarmnose said: I’m waiting on @Stovepipe to confirm this storm before I get too excited 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WPC says they are using the Euro through D4, then the ensemble blend d5+. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Didn't the CMC try to ice our kicker earlier today? . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 For what it's worth (not much), NAM has the Low near Mobile at the end of it's run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's frozen shield looked like it would evolve in similar fashion to the Euro had it continued. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The best feature on the NAM to me is that 1037 H over Iowa. The Euro has a 1034 over Iowa as well. HP over Iowa is often a very good sign for a winter storm here. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAVGEM FWIW 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Reb said: NAVGEM FWIW That’s a great look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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