How long before the Euro shows another hurricane coming up the east coast?

[Confuzzled]

Two weeks in a row now. Last week was only for two consecutive runs but this weak was for 5 or more consecutive runs

I think these last weeks have been a subtle reminder and have provided a good lesson on trusting the models from 72hr on. I'm sure 90% of us wanted this thing to happen and that led to what I saw as a lot of "trending" comments when it was the Euro vs the world.

Can we define "trend" in here? Because I am having a hard time understanding how when one run of a model moves a low 50 miles west that is actually a "trend" or the model is "trending". If one student wears something funky to school it is not a trend. When 50 of them start doing it then its a trend. Shouldn't you require at least 2-3 runs before claiming something is trending? Also, even if a model moves a final solution closer to a different model on two separate runs there is no indication it is trending towards that model unless its development is also trending their. They might be taking slightly different routes to the same place. Now if 3 models move slightly wase in one run is that considered a valid "trend" or does each model have to do it for consecutive runs?

Also, are there any hard empirical studies that show when a model "trends" towards another solution in the 72hr to 144hr range that the outcome is actually more likely to occur? Has it been shown to be less likely to simply trend back to its original solution in the next two runs?

I don't have nearly the experience or expertise of looking at an and analyzing models runs as most of you here but is there anything SCIENTIFIC to "trending" or is it just a phrase weenies use when models appear to movie in a direction they want them to?

[SnowGoose69]

Probably between 1/2 and 1/5...the GFS has been showing a signal in that range consistently of a coastal system following behind the Lakes Cutter or Plains blizzard so be prepared to see something showing again soon.

[Brianonymous]

I would consider a trend the convergence of similar solutions from different models.... over time... eg- Model A starts at X=3, Model B at X=5. On the next run, if Model A X=3, and Model B is X=4, I would say that model B trended toward model A. But thats just me, and I am weird.