clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS 992 over CHO. Nice run. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That was a bad run! For sure. Heavy rains now seem to be more possible. Wow! What a crappy system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z GFS is laughably bad for us DC folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Welp, those WSW's are probably coming down soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GFS is laughably bad for us DC folk Let’s migrate over to the LR thread…it’s warm in there and they have cookies. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 100 Pages!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Storm after next. Let's just be happy. We are tracking...snow. to ice to just rain. Maybe a tornado by tomorrow's 18z.By the way congrats BUFFALO Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS almost goes into the GOM too. I wonder how many times models have had a 1044mb high pressure over the Great Lakes today/tomorrow (before a storm). I remember not many situations in the 2000s. Not saying a big shift will occur, but it could be a variable. Still 58hrs away, a slight shift SE could still be in the cards. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: GFS almost goes into the GOM too. I wonder how many times models have had a 1044mb high pressure over the Great Lakes today/tomorrow (before a storm). I remember not many situations in the 2000s. Not saying a big shift will occur, but it could be a variable. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yea that 18z run ain’t it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Binghamton snow bus now boarding on platform five. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Yeah, the 18z NAM is in the GOM. It does have a NW bias. Pretty far in the gulf, a slight shift could make a big difference. Has Cuba hoisted any WSW yet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I know it’s January and this is the 850 anomaly, but it pretty much tells the story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Will the couple piles of snow I have left in town help keep the temps down? Lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'm only a weenie and not a guru but man 100 pages in and this is what we get does make me feel better that predicting the weather is tough for anybody. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS slowly figuring out 85kt southeast winds at 850mb aren't good for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I wonder how many analogues there would have been for a storm evolution similar to this. Also before throwing a sheet over this, let's not forget the storm hasn't actually happened yet. What if the models are just as wrong about this as they were in that early March setup a few years ago. In that case the storm ended up missing wide right if I recall, what's to say this doesn't miss wide right and you're back in a good place? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: I know it’s January and this is the 850 anomaly, but it pretty much tells the story. decent match 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Welp the models told us not to pitch a tent, but we still did. Least we know gfs is dialed in for the next one that misses us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Binghamton snow bus now boarding on platform five. We should drive 5 hours so we can get 2” of snow and ice changing to rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs is ugly. I’m hugging the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I wonder how many analogues there would have been for a storm evolution similar to this. Also before throwing a sheet over this, let's not forget the storm hasn't actually happened yet. What if the models are just as wrong about this as they were in that early March setup a few years ago. In that case the storm ended up missing wide right if I recall, what's to say this doesn't miss wide right and you're back in a good place? What I wouldnt give to wake up on Monday morning, crack open the Mid Atlantic sub and find very happy snow weenies flying happily all over! The storm missed wide right and DC gets 20 inches of pow, as well as much of the forum! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jebman said: What I wouldnt give to wake up on Monday morning, crack open the Mid Atlantic sub and find very happy snow weenies flying happily all over! The storm missed wide right and DC gets 20 inches of pow, as well as much of the forum! Gotta set reasonable goals Jeb. Just hope Winchester gets 20” for example 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The main event is turning into either wind gusts or the chance at a car topper from the backlash snows showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The cycle of optimism-pessimism is actually trending in a good way, next peak of optimism should be late Saturday. At that range the models can't miss. Pros seem a bit suspicious that these model shifts are bogus, not sensing their enthusiasm at this stage. How many cold 500 mb lows form in this particular way? And the offset of the circulation to snow development at present will be replaced overnight by something more normal looking. I wonder if the injection of cold air into the circulation will change the model output, because right now that low in Texas is surrounded by mild air masses, the arctic front is almost a thousand miles northeast of the low. By late Saturday it's making more direct contact in AR-MS. And there's the contact with the Gulf to consider. There are ways these forecasts could bust on the warm side. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jebman said: What I wouldnt give to wake up on Monday morning, crack open the Mid Atlantic sub and find very happy snow weenies flying happily all over! The storm missed wide right and DC gets 20 inches of pow, as well as much of the forum! That’s always my hope with these storms. It’s happened before! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poodleusier Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Did someone say it's over? It's not over until we say.... Oh, nevermind. It's over... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, 87storms said: different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end. yea, that feb 94 storm and 2007 Val day were the biggest sleet storms I can remember. Don’t think this one will rate. Me, I”m a bit over halfway to climo and peak snow season isn’t even here yet. So if this is a bust, I won’t stew in my slush juices. And after seeing the GoFundMeS, I think “slush” may be pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I will be there also...I only expect several inches of snow/ice from the front side of this storm...but they will clean up on the backside once the winds flip to the NW. That's perfect upslope flow and it's the kind of snow they get very high ratios, 20-1. I could see them getting 8" from that late Sunday night through Monday morning. Always appreciate your knowledge and posts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts