EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is trending into a debacle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If nam cut down on snow totals, is it showing an ugly ice storm west of 95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Let be honest - the biggest impact we'll feel at this point is the wind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Except its not just the NAM. Check out the RGEM. Changes to sleet and freezing rain all the way to Erie! I didn't say the boogeyman didn't exist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: Let be honest - the biggest impact we'll feel at this point is the wind. We've been feeling that in every one of your posts 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: We've been feeling that in every one of your posts the screen name checks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman I'm hard pressed to remember a storm track like the one the models are spitting out. I was convinced 3 days ago this would either cut or ride the coast. Weird times we live in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Does the NWS have secret alien technology that we are not aware of. Asking for a friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except its not just the NAM. Check out the RGEM. Changes to sleet and freezing rain all the way to Erie! That's wild, I just looked. 12z GFS also has this thin pocket of warm air aloft at 850mb west of the Apps at 0z Monday. Seems that there's a 850-700mb secondary low that moves west of the Apps and brings that warm air aloft. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Any truckers on this forum? Can I get one to fall on the sword and jackknife on 66W on the way to dulles at about 2pm on Monday? Even better, do it on the service road. I pay in cold hard cash, untraceable bills... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 First time checking in since earlier this AM. Was expecting semi-happy hour. Seems like there is most definitely some drinks being poured, but more like pour one out for our dead storm. Eff it! I’ll enjoy the 10 seconds of flurries and sleet and move on to next weekend. Izzy! (TWCs stupid name). You’re freaking dead to me! Middle finger emoji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We all lol at projected ice totals, but we better hope they're wrong this time. We have cold air locked in ahead of the event and this is falling at night, with wind behind. A couple counties could get whacked pretty hard with decent power outages and trees into houses, especially once you get up towards Frederick. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: First time checking in since earlier this AM. Was expecting semi-happy hour. Seems like there is most definitely some drinks being poured, but more like pour one out for our dead storm. Eff it! I’ll enjoy the 10 seconds of flurries and sleet and move on to next weekend. Izzy! (TWCs stupid name). You’re freaking dead to me! Middle finger emoji. I even heard Cantori turned around and went home. What if nature made a storm and nobody came? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We all lol at project ice totals, but we better hope they're wrong this time. We have cold air locked in ahead of the event and this is falling at night, with wind behind. A couple counties could get whacked pretty hard with decent power outages and trees into houses, especially once you get up towards Frederick. I am hoping everyone that is going to get ice gets a couple of inches of snow first. It would help a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Look at that beast heading towards Nova Scotia. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=na&band=09&length=24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It did...but that storm the low tracked up into the delmarva and the warm layer blasted some sleet and a dry slot into south central PA to places like Harrisburg. That was significantly further NW than thinking...but I've seen that before, especially with a bad upper level track in that case. But here the upper and mid level track is through VA just south of DC. The surface track is up just west of the bay. And the NAM is mixing with sleet and freezing rain all the way to Lake Erie. That seems a bit off. Ive never seen THAT! The 2016 President's day storm might be a better analog in this situation. That was a truly arctic airmass going into it.. but the cold air was scoured away incredibly quickly with a rather intrusive LP track. Single digits to 50s in just a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs first frame with precip on it has DC raining lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah, the 18z NAM is in the GOM. It does have a NW bias. Pretty far in the gulf, a slight shift could make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS dagger for I-95 and metros. This was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS 992 over CHO. Nice run. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That was a bad run! For sure. Heavy rains now seem to be more possible. Wow! What a crappy system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z GFS is laughably bad for us DC folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Welp, those WSW's are probably coming down soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GFS is laughably bad for us DC folk Let’s migrate over to the LR thread…it’s warm in there and they have cookies. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 100 Pages!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Storm after next. Let's just be happy. We are tracking...snow. to ice to just rain. Maybe a tornado by tomorrow's 18z.By the way congrats BUFFALO Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS almost goes into the GOM too. I wonder how many times models have had a 1044mb high pressure over the Great Lakes today/tomorrow (before a storm). I remember not many situations in the 2000s. Not saying a big shift will occur, but it could be a variable. Still 58hrs away, a slight shift SE could still be in the cards. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: GFS almost goes into the GOM too. I wonder how many times models have had a 1044mb high pressure over the Great Lakes today/tomorrow (before a storm). I remember not many situations in the 2000s. Not saying a big shift will occur, but it could be a variable. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yea that 18z run ain’t it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Binghamton snow bus now boarding on platform five. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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