H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Rvarookie said: We beat the hell out of this thing only to go limp at the end Its worse for people in Short Pump 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: We beat the hell out of this thing only to go limp at the end Sounds like a regular night in your bedroom. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The NAM following reminds me a that Stephen King movie Storm of the Century where the people are just blindly walking down a pier and jumping into a raging ocean. I'm not a fan of the parent 12km NAM at all. I think it's a trash model, but the 3km is better at handling details like warm noses and mesoscale banding and such. Now is still a bit far out for those details, so that's why I would monitor it and not take it as gospel. It's just one way this pattern can play out, but that's the nature of this beast. Time will tell. I want to see y'all get snow. That would suck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... There is only one person to blame 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: I have no doubts the warm layer will blast through this area with no trouble...but I have to think the NAM is way overdone overall. It's really indicating not much snow anywhere...flipping everyone to ice even to the NW edges of the storm. I have never seen that before when a cold airmass in place in January and a surface track east of the blue ridge. To change over all the way into western PA? Was it the 12/2020 storm that @Cobalt reminded me of yesterday where we had a somewhat similar discussion? NAM went nuts with the warm layer intrusion way inland. As I recall, it was "right" in the sense that a warm layer did go much farther inland than we had been thinking up until that point, but it did end up underdone with the front end snow? The Euro has very good vertical (and horizontal) resolution as well, so got to give that credence also IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I have no doubts the warm layer will blast through this area with no trouble...but I have to think the NAM is way overdone overall. It's really indicating not much snow anywhere...flipping everyone to ice even to the NW edges of the storm. I have never seen that before when a cold airmass in place in January and a surface track east of the blue ridge. To change over all the way into western PA? It does seem a little aggressive, but plausible. The ESE flow in the low and mid levels will be rather strong and I could see it transporting the mild air well inland - and doing so very quickly. I think the NAM may be on to something here. Antecedent cold airmasses can be very quickly blown away with such intense WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See you over there. Wait for me. Headed there myself tired Of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Was it the 12/2020 storm that @Cobalt reminded me of yesterday where we had a somewhat similar discussion? NAM went nuts with the warm layer intrusion way inland. As I recall, it was "right" in the sense that a warm layer did go much farther inland than we had been thinking up until that point, but it did end up underdone with the front end snow? The Euro has very good vertical (and horizontal) resolution as well, so got to give that credence also IMO. It did...but that storm the low tracked up into the delmarva and the warm layer blasted some sleet and a dry slot into south central PA to places like Harrisburg. That was significantly further NW than thinking...but I've seen that before, especially with a bad upper level track in that case. But here the upper and mid level track is through VA just south of DC. The surface track is up just west of the bay. And the NAM is mixing with sleet and freezing rain all the way to Lake Erie. That seems a bit off. Ive never seen THAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would bet both my nuts. Uh oh… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Was it the 12/2020 storm that @Cobalt reminded me of yesterday where we had a somewhat similar discussion? NAM went nuts with the warm layer intrusion way inland. As I recall, it was "right" in the sense that a warm layer did go much farther inland than we had been thinking up until that point, but it did end up underdone with the front end snow? The Euro has very good vertical (and horizontal) resolution as well, so got to give that credence also IMO. Then it is a tough call for the mets for my area. The Euro gives me 11 the Nam/GFS/CMC give me 3-5 followed by an ice storm. Bullseyed to get a foot for a week. What a disaster. I picked out a fine bottle of Macallan 12 for this slop fest too. Guess I will have to go with the Johnny Black instead and put that bottle away for the next one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have no doubts the warm layer will blast through this area with no trouble...but I have to think the NAM is way overdone overall. It's really indicating not much snow anywhere...flipping everyone to ice even to the NW edges of the storm. I have never seen that before when a cold airmass in place in January and a surface track east of the blue ridge. To change over all the way into western PA? different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... The storm has been pretty much the same for 5+ straight days. The "tracking" part was mostly us finding a way to get some snow out of a storm with serious temp problems. Far from a fail since the storm is still happening and looks to be about the same as it has. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 At least the roads are nice and salted. Will help soak up the cold rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end. https://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/weather-history-topics/reflecting-on-the-historic-ice-storm-of-1994-credit-national-weather-service-jackson-ms-noaa Some maps in that article. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The storm has been pretty much the same for 5+ straight days. The "tracking" part was mostly us finding a way to get some snow out of a storm with serious temp problems. Far from a fail since the storm is still happening and looks to be about the same as it has. For our region, the journey to climo NEVER involves pure-snow events only. Well, only in magical fantasy years like 2009-10. You got to take the slop with the snow. We had 2 pretty lovely all snow/mostly snow events last week. So I'll take my medicine, eat the slop, and tack on another couple/few inches to my annual total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end. I know the storm you're talking about and it was a different setup. Models missed a higher mid level warm layer around 700 mb. I am only bringing this up because I am very familiar with central PA climo from my years at PSU. For them a perfect setup is a cut off amplified H5 moving through around DC with a surface low tracking up inland but east of the blue ridge. In winter with a cold airmass in place that should be a setup for a big snowstorm in places like Deep Creek, Altoona, State college, not a change to ice and dry slot! It doesn't matter for us...just saying its kinda ridiculous to have a H5 and surface track near DC and a flip to non snow all the way to extreme northwestern PA. Put that in perspective...thats the equivalent of a H5 tracking across southern NC and Cape Hatteras and a surface low tracking off the NC coast and 100 miles east of Ocean City and us flipping over! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM prob has the right idea but I'm not locking into anything in the mid levels until the storm is on approach. At least them it will be a developed system with real time data of the layers inside. Never doubted a mix/mess. Would be a bummer to get such a hard core push of WWA into an OK airmass only to get sand blasted and washed away without covering the grass first. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... Life is about the journey, my friend. But yeah, a little more snow at the destination would have been nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I haven't checked in all day. My wife still gonna be canceled out of IAD on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: I haven't checked in all day. My wife still gonna be canceled out of IAD on Monday? If I were that CEO I'd be dusting off the resume. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: If I were that CEO I'd be dusting off the resume. Crap, there goes my plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know the storm you're talking about and it was a different setup. Models missed a higher mid level warm layer around 700 mb. I am only bringing this up because I am very familiar with central PA climo from my years at PSU. For them a perfect setup is a cut off amplified H5 moving through around DC with a surface low tracking up inland but east of the blue ridge. In winter with a cold airmass in place that should be a setup for a big snowstorm in places like Deep Creek, Altoona, State college, not a change to ice and dry slot! It doesn't matter for us...just saying its kinda ridiculous to have a H5 and surface track near DC and a flip to non snow all the way to extreme northwestern PA. Put that in perspective...thats the equivalent of a H5 tracking across southern NC and Cape Hatteras and a surface low tracking off the NC coast and 100 miles east of Ocean City and us flipping over! yea, and that's just as annoying as a sharp cutoff like a couple weeks ago. hopefully it's wrong, but there's a lot of consensus towards that high just not being in the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Whatever this storm brings, I’m ready. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman Well in your Jan 2016 type events, it usually is pure weenie fodder. At least the 12k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Whatever this storm brings, I’m ready. Looks like you need to restock... That's all ya got? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Looks like you need to restock... That's all ya got? LOL It is supposed to be a quick storm... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman Except its not just the NAM. Check out the RGEM. Changes to sleet and freezing rain all the way to Erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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