paxpatriot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... Life is about the journey, my friend. But yeah, a little more snow at the destination would have been nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I haven't checked in all day. My wife still gonna be canceled out of IAD on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: I haven't checked in all day. My wife still gonna be canceled out of IAD on Monday? If I were that CEO I'd be dusting off the resume. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: If I were that CEO I'd be dusting off the resume. Crap, there goes my plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know the storm you're talking about and it was a different setup. Models missed a higher mid level warm layer around 700 mb. I am only bringing this up because I am very familiar with central PA climo from my years at PSU. For them a perfect setup is a cut off amplified H5 moving through around DC with a surface low tracking up inland but east of the blue ridge. In winter with a cold airmass in place that should be a setup for a big snowstorm in places like Deep Creek, Altoona, State college, not a change to ice and dry slot! It doesn't matter for us...just saying its kinda ridiculous to have a H5 and surface track near DC and a flip to non snow all the way to extreme northwestern PA. Put that in perspective...thats the equivalent of a H5 tracking across southern NC and Cape Hatteras and a surface low tracking off the NC coast and 100 miles east of Ocean City and us flipping over! yea, and that's just as annoying as a sharp cutoff like a couple weeks ago. hopefully it's wrong, but there's a lot of consensus towards that high just not being in the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Whatever this storm brings, I’m ready. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman Well in your Jan 2016 type events, it usually is pure weenie fodder. At least the 12k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Whatever this storm brings, I’m ready. Looks like you need to restock... That's all ya got? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Looks like you need to restock... That's all ya got? LOL It is supposed to be a quick storm... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman Except its not just the NAM. Check out the RGEM. Changes to sleet and freezing rain all the way to Erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is trending into a debacle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If nam cut down on snow totals, is it showing an ugly ice storm west of 95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Let be honest - the biggest impact we'll feel at this point is the wind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Except its not just the NAM. Check out the RGEM. Changes to sleet and freezing rain all the way to Erie! I didn't say the boogeyman didn't exist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: Let be honest - the biggest impact we'll feel at this point is the wind. We've been feeling that in every one of your posts 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: We've been feeling that in every one of your posts the screen name checks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman I'm hard pressed to remember a storm track like the one the models are spitting out. I was convinced 3 days ago this would either cut or ride the coast. Weird times we live in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Does the NWS have secret alien technology that we are not aware of. Asking for a friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except its not just the NAM. Check out the RGEM. Changes to sleet and freezing rain all the way to Erie! That's wild, I just looked. 12z GFS also has this thin pocket of warm air aloft at 850mb west of the Apps at 0z Monday. Seems that there's a 850-700mb secondary low that moves west of the Apps and brings that warm air aloft. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Any truckers on this forum? Can I get one to fall on the sword and jackknife on 66W on the way to dulles at about 2pm on Monday? Even better, do it on the service road. I pay in cold hard cash, untraceable bills... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 First time checking in since earlier this AM. Was expecting semi-happy hour. Seems like there is most definitely some drinks being poured, but more like pour one out for our dead storm. Eff it! I’ll enjoy the 10 seconds of flurries and sleet and move on to next weekend. Izzy! (TWCs stupid name). You’re freaking dead to me! Middle finger emoji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We all lol at projected ice totals, but we better hope they're wrong this time. We have cold air locked in ahead of the event and this is falling at night, with wind behind. A couple counties could get whacked pretty hard with decent power outages and trees into houses, especially once you get up towards Frederick. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: First time checking in since earlier this AM. Was expecting semi-happy hour. Seems like there is most definitely some drinks being poured, but more like pour one out for our dead storm. Eff it! I’ll enjoy the 10 seconds of flurries and sleet and move on to next weekend. Izzy! (TWCs stupid name). You’re freaking dead to me! Middle finger emoji. I even heard Cantori turned around and went home. What if nature made a storm and nobody came? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We all lol at project ice totals, but we better hope they're wrong this time. We have cold air locked in ahead of the event and this is falling at night, with wind behind. A couple counties could get whacked pretty hard with decent power outages and trees into houses, especially once you get up towards Frederick. I am hoping everyone that is going to get ice gets a couple of inches of snow first. It would help a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Look at that beast heading towards Nova Scotia. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=na&band=09&length=24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It did...but that storm the low tracked up into the delmarva and the warm layer blasted some sleet and a dry slot into south central PA to places like Harrisburg. That was significantly further NW than thinking...but I've seen that before, especially with a bad upper level track in that case. But here the upper and mid level track is through VA just south of DC. The surface track is up just west of the bay. And the NAM is mixing with sleet and freezing rain all the way to Lake Erie. That seems a bit off. Ive never seen THAT! The 2016 President's day storm might be a better analog in this situation. That was a truly arctic airmass going into it.. but the cold air was scoured away incredibly quickly with a rather intrusive LP track. Single digits to 50s in just a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs first frame with precip on it has DC raining lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah, the 18z NAM is in the GOM. It does have a NW bias. Pretty far in the gulf, a slight shift could make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS dagger for I-95 and metros. This was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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