snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. It is strengthening that backside potential on each run. But the hopes of an all snow bomb to the west is pretty much over. I won't be making fun of the NAM again anytime soon. It was the first to pick out the realistic amount of ice out this way. The storm hasn’t happened yet. We can’t determine which was right until the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: VDOT is using beet juice and salt alternatives this year. Not joking...much less salt application. Nobody likes Beets, Dwight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, BigCountry said: Nobody likes Beets, Dwight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: The use of brining during pretreatment has shown to reduce the use of salt by 75% over just post treatment. So the brining is not the enemy. It is part of the solution to the problem you are concerned about. also beat juice is high in sugar and leads to algae blooms in the bay so it’s not really a solution either. If they can curb sodium usage in any way shape or form it will help. Damage is already being done due to salt piles being dumped on roads. The data on what’s showing up in the watersheds due to it is alarming 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That trend on the 12z GFS towards more of a coastal low dominance could make the outcome much different if the storm slows down a bit, I read the commentary here before running the loop and saw a somewhat more optimistic potential, mixing looks brief and I could see how this trend might lead to an all-snow outcome. You can follow a center of low pressure up the coast developing offshore and heading for Cape Cod. Halfway house to a much different outcome? Interesting to see if Euro goes in this direction also. My first call would be 3.5" BWI, DCA and 5.5" IAD, 8 to 15 over regions northwest of DC to ROA, about 6-9" CHO. Some sleet and max temps 34-38F, dropping back to low 30s, mixed showers for most with 3-5" upslope in wraparound. Results, some snow left on ground in metros and 3-6 frozen pack further west, slow meltdown Tuesday-Wednesday with a few more passing flurries. 6 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CMC looks better than it's 0z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 500 and surface low further to the east, maybe a slightly weaker piece of energy to the west but it's further east than 0z. Hope the Euro shows a similar east nudge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We need some positive news on the Euro.. I have a feeling it will also be negative.. but hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, H2O said: VDOT brining the shit out of the roads today. Gotta love the stupidity to destroy our watersheds all for cars This is the age where people have to feel safe from all things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: This is the age where people have to feel safe from all things. Ours is a society now addicted to fear. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. It is strengthening that backside potential on each run. But the hopes of an all snow bomb to the west is pretty much over. I won't be making fun of the NAM again anytime soon. It was the first to pick out the realistic amount of ice out this way. So you’re declaring the NAM correct on Friday morning for a Sunday evening storm. I might have to ponder that one a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I fear sleet. Let’s keep things focused on wx, please or memes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Ours is a society now addicted to fear. This. Place the fact that our society is inherently unable to deal with adversity. Not to people being generally pretty dumb. that’s it I’m done 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I saw positives in the morning runs. Declaring that model run are correct at 54+ hours baffles the living **** out of me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: I fear sleet. Let’s keep things focused on wx, please or memes That’s what the storm is missing, a few more of your memes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So you’re declaring the NAM correct on Friday morning for a Sunday evening storm. I might have to ponder that one a bit. Not just the nam man. The gfs and cmc look almost identical to it now as far as boundary temps go. I guess it could be wrong. But not likely with everything else moving towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Don’t toss the towel yet folks. You can do that Saturday night if need be. There’s lots of ways this can be a lot of fun for a lot of the forum. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Not just the nam man. The gfs and cmc look almost identical to it now as far as boundary temps go. I guess it could be wrong. But not likely with everything else moving towards it. Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: or memes In that case… 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s what the storm is missing, a few more of your memes. Some might say the storm is punishing us because of my memes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, jayyy said: I know NAM gets trashed, which is usually pretty spot on when we’re talking about 60-84 hours, but if the 12k and 3K are showing a major ice storm at the 24-48 hour mark, we need to be paying attention, as the NAM is better at picking up mid level warming in these setups than the GFS. I am with you. I have been out all morning, running errands at IKEA and Costco because I hate myself, but just catching up on things and I really think we might be underplaying the ice threat. Sure, 100% agree on the initial thump of snow, but as I have experienced in many a winter setup in eastern NC, you can have 2-3 inches of snow, followed by .25 - .5 inches of ice and those storms were the freaking worst. Feel like the threat is more aligned with the Rt. 15 corridor, just west of the city - but who knows. I sold my soul Wx soul for more money and a better commute, so my model analysis eyes are probably garbage at this point 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, H2O said: Some might say the storm is punishing us because of my memes It's true. For instance, I was just saying that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll like any post by a red-tag. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We need some positive news on the Euro.. I have a feeling it will also be negative.. but hoping! it keeps spitting out 7-8 for you....every run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I don't know guys, this is some heavy precip as snow. I think it will overperform. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'll like any post by a red-tag. Banana 12 2 15 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I live inside the DC beltway (and I have since 2011) so my expectations for what we can get in any storm are realistic. I will be happy if we get even 2" of snow falling in the late afternoon Sunday so I can go outside with my kid before it gets dark and have some fun. Sure it sucks we aren't getting HECS'D, but the trend has been clear on this one since Tuesday. That's OK, it's been a good January so far. Ideal scenario = snow--->sleet---> drizzle. Hoping the euro can lock in that solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Banana Well we know RR will like this post too 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: I live inside the DC beltway (and I have since 2011) so my expectations for what we can get in any storm are realistic. I will be happy if we get even 2" of snow falling in the late afternoon Sunday so I can go outside with my kid before it gets dark and have some fun. Sure it sucks we aren't getting HECS'D, but the trend has been clear on this one since Tuesday. That's OK, it's been a good January so far. Ideal scenario = snow--->sleet---> drizzle. Hoping the euro can lock in that solution. I am with you - same location, same situation. With a 3 year old, unless we get a HECS, give me enough to enjoy Sunday and Monday. Then, the damn roads better be clear for Daycare dropoff on Tuesday morning! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, wolfpackwxDC said: Feel like the threat is more aligned with the Rt. 15 corridor, just west of the city - but who knows. That would be me. Have a great generator. It’s the trees that worry me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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