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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


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1 hour ago, jayyy said:

I know NAM gets trashed, which is usually pretty spot on when we’re talking about 60-84 hours, but if the 12k and 3K are showing a major ice storm at the 24-48 hour mark, we need to be paying attention, as the NAM is better at picking up mid level warming in these setups than the GFS. 

I am with you. I have been out all morning, running errands at IKEA and Costco because I hate myself, but just catching up on things and I really think we might be underplaying the ice threat. Sure, 100% agree on the initial thump of snow, but as I have experienced in many a winter setup in eastern NC, you can have 2-3 inches of snow, followed by .25 - .5 inches of ice and those storms were the freaking worst. Feel like the threat is more aligned with the Rt. 15 corridor, just west of the city - but who knows. 

I sold my soul Wx soul for more money and a better commute, so my model analysis eyes are probably garbage at this point :D

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I live inside the DC beltway (and I have since 2011) so my expectations for what we can get in any storm are realistic. I will be happy if we get even 2" of snow falling in the late afternoon Sunday so I can go outside with my kid before it gets dark and have some fun. Sure it sucks we aren't getting HECS'D, but the trend has been clear on this one since Tuesday.  That's OK, it's been a good January so far. Ideal scenario = snow--->sleet---> drizzle. Hoping the euro can lock in that solution.

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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

I live inside the DC beltway (and I have since 2011) so my expectations for what we can get in any storm are realistic. I will be happy if we get even 2" of snow falling in the late afternoon Sunday so I can go outside with my kid before it gets dark and have some fun. Sure it sucks we aren't getting HECS'D, but the trend has been clear on this one since Tuesday.  That's OK, it's been a good January so far. Ideal scenario = snow--->sleet---> drizzle. Hoping the euro can lock in that solution.

I am with you - same location, same situation. With a 3 year old, unless we get a HECS, give me enough to enjoy Sunday and Monday. Then, the damn roads better be clear for Daycare dropoff on Tuesday morning!

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Just now, kristia said:

That would be me. Have a great generator. It’s the trees that worry me. 

I balked on buying a generator after 2 big storms knocked out power here in Arlington last summer. Lights flickered during the snow last week. I think we will be getting said generator as soon as we can secure one!

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8 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Booked a room in Harrisonburg, VA. Should be mildly more exciting than Adelphi, MD. lol If it busts out there, Harrisonburg is sooooo romantic. :axe:

It's not bad for a college town.  Some good places to eat.  Enjoy the view.  Are you doing Hotel Madison?

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7 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

It's not bad for a college town.  Some good places to eat.  Enjoy the view.  Are you doing Hotel Madison?

Nah. Marriott. I just want to watch the snow and go out and have dinner or something. Real quick. Not trying to make it a vacation. It's only an hour and a half away.

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

That trend on the 12z GFS towards more of a coastal low dominance could make the outcome much different if the storm slows down a bit, I read the commentary here before running the loop and saw a somewhat more optimistic potential, mixing looks brief and I could see how this trend might lead to an all-snow outcome. You can follow a center of low pressure up the coast developing offshore and heading for Cape Cod. Halfway house to a much different outcome? 

Interesting to see if Euro goes in this direction also. My first call would be 3.5" BWI, DCA and 5.5" IAD, 8 to 15 over regions northwest of DC to ROA, about 6-9" CHO. Some sleet and max temps 34-38F, dropping back to low 30s, mixed showers for most with 3-5" upslope in wraparound. Results, some snow left on ground in metros and 3-6 frozen pack further west, slow meltdown Tuesday-Wednesday with a few more passing flurries. 

I’ll smoke whatever you are smoking and I won’t apologize for it…at all

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12 minutes ago, Twilly05 said:

I’ll smoke whatever you are smoking and I won’t apologize for it…at all

Not indulging, just a natural high -- but seriously, I have the feeling there's going to be a surprise ending to this story, looking at how cold that high is over n ON today, when it settles into the St Lawrence valley and feeds down through NY, very cold surface temps may make the low decide to follow the path of least resistance. That could translate into extra snow for anywhere in this subforum except east of the Bay, and also same holds true for e PA. I see the forecast nightmare looming for NYC but they could start out with heavy snow before the inevitable mixing. I'm not the only one, SCC also stating similar views. The clash between this frigid high and the amped southerly stream over anomalously warm ocean should lead to a very powerful storm. 

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