Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Looks like the gfs jumps to the coast quicker than previous runs. And the rain starts earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: First Call Map I'll have more on my current thoughts later today when I get a chance. I also want to see any shifts in the ULL track and timing of vertical stack with the SLP. Some changes may occur in the next 24-36 hrs for my forecast, but zones should stay relatively the same. Can we move that pink about 60 miles east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS is a disaster for I-95. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Any wrap-around snow east of the Shenandoah Vly would be insignificant. The GFS overdoes that in these scenarios. the boundary level temps will be mostly above freezing, and it may even mix with rain at times, so nothing more than a dusting or coating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: First Call Map I'll have more on my current thoughts later today when I get a chance. I also want to see any shifts in the ULL track and timing of vertical stack with the SLP. Some changes may occur in the next 24-36 hrs for my forecast, but zones should stay relatively the same. I see you have adopted the Ellinwood grey zone of despair. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, mattskiva said: That's highly unlikely, especially as the mass exodus from the cities post covid continues. I don't think you understand the concepts behind work-from-home very well. People not commuting every day = less driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. It is strengthening that backside potential on each run. But the hopes of an all snow bomb to the west is pretty much over. I won't be making fun of the NAM again anytime soon. It was the first to pick out the realistic amount of ice out this way. Yes, the NAM does a lot better than people like to admit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: VDOT is using beet juice and salt alternatives this year. Not joking...much less salt application. Good to hear. Gotta change how roads get treated before it’s too late 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Any wrap-around snow east of the Shenandoah Vly would be insignificant. The GFS overdoes that in these scenarios. the boundary level temps will be mostly above freezing, and it may even mix with rain at times, so nothing more than a dusting or coating. I can tell you’re not a glass half full kind of person. Any wrap around is always a bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, SnowCane said: I can tell you’re not a glass half full kind of person. And wrap around is always a bonus! Just keeping it real! I'd love to see this work out, but this isn't our storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Reach arounds have happy endings, sometimes If done right, every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, H2O said: Good to hear. Gotta change how roads get treated before it’s too late The use of brining during pretreatment has shown to reduce the use of salt by 75% over just post treatment. So the brining is not the enemy. It is part of the solution to the problem you are concerned about. also beat juice is high in sugar and leads to algae blooms in the bay so it’s not really a solution either. Also bad for aquatic insects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. It is strengthening that backside potential on each run. But the hopes of an all snow bomb to the west is pretty much over. I won't be making fun of the NAM again anytime soon. It was the first to pick out the realistic amount of ice out this way. The storm hasn’t happened yet. We can’t determine which was right until the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: VDOT is using beet juice and salt alternatives this year. Not joking...much less salt application. Nobody likes Beets, Dwight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, BigCountry said: Nobody likes Beets, Dwight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: The use of brining during pretreatment has shown to reduce the use of salt by 75% over just post treatment. So the brining is not the enemy. It is part of the solution to the problem you are concerned about. also beat juice is high in sugar and leads to algae blooms in the bay so it’s not really a solution either. If they can curb sodium usage in any way shape or form it will help. Damage is already being done due to salt piles being dumped on roads. The data on what’s showing up in the watersheds due to it is alarming 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That trend on the 12z GFS towards more of a coastal low dominance could make the outcome much different if the storm slows down a bit, I read the commentary here before running the loop and saw a somewhat more optimistic potential, mixing looks brief and I could see how this trend might lead to an all-snow outcome. You can follow a center of low pressure up the coast developing offshore and heading for Cape Cod. Halfway house to a much different outcome? Interesting to see if Euro goes in this direction also. My first call would be 3.5" BWI, DCA and 5.5" IAD, 8 to 15 over regions northwest of DC to ROA, about 6-9" CHO. Some sleet and max temps 34-38F, dropping back to low 30s, mixed showers for most with 3-5" upslope in wraparound. Results, some snow left on ground in metros and 3-6 frozen pack further west, slow meltdown Tuesday-Wednesday with a few more passing flurries. 6 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CMC looks better than it's 0z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 500 and surface low further to the east, maybe a slightly weaker piece of energy to the west but it's further east than 0z. Hope the Euro shows a similar east nudge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We need some positive news on the Euro.. I have a feeling it will also be negative.. but hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, H2O said: VDOT brining the shit out of the roads today. Gotta love the stupidity to destroy our watersheds all for cars This is the age where people have to feel safe from all things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: This is the age where people have to feel safe from all things. Ours is a society now addicted to fear. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. It is strengthening that backside potential on each run. But the hopes of an all snow bomb to the west is pretty much over. I won't be making fun of the NAM again anytime soon. It was the first to pick out the realistic amount of ice out this way. So you’re declaring the NAM correct on Friday morning for a Sunday evening storm. I might have to ponder that one a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I fear sleet. Let’s keep things focused on wx, please or memes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Ours is a society now addicted to fear. This. Place the fact that our society is inherently unable to deal with adversity. Not to people being generally pretty dumb. that’s it I’m done 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I saw positives in the morning runs. Declaring that model run are correct at 54+ hours baffles the living **** out of me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: I fear sleet. Let’s keep things focused on wx, please or memes That’s what the storm is missing, a few more of your memes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So you’re declaring the NAM correct on Friday morning for a Sunday evening storm. I might have to ponder that one a bit. Not just the nam man. The gfs and cmc look almost identical to it now as far as boundary temps go. I guess it could be wrong. But not likely with everything else moving towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Don’t toss the towel yet folks. You can do that Saturday night if need be. There’s lots of ways this can be a lot of fun for a lot of the forum. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Not just the nam man. The gfs and cmc look almost identical to it now as far as boundary temps go. I guess it could be wrong. But not likely with everything else moving towards it. Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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