mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: Hopefully we will avoid most virga since this is a big storm blasting through here quickly. It's not a slider south of us where we are on the northern edge. Won't be much time for virga since the minute the precip starts we will be able to see the back edge on radar already. LOL I hope so. The thump will be good though however long it lasts, so theres that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 HRRR for laughs is super south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ravens94 said: HRRR for laughs is super south you need to drive that big blue H from NY City up to Lake Erie to have a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah, this isn't a virga setup at all. The WAA and those winds screaming from the SE at the 850 level will come in like a wall to get rid of any dry air in the column. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, this isn't a virga setup at all. The WAA and those winds screaming from the SE at the 850 level will come in like a wall to get rid of any dry air in the column. That's why I think it comes in light for a few minutes... then it's hot and heavy until the switchover. Rates will be over 1" per hour for however long we can snow IMO 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The intensity of the WAA should overcome the low level dry air rather quickly, so I think any virga will be short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Thank you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, this isn't a virga setup at all. The WAA and those winds screaming from the SE at the 850 level will come in like a wall to get rid of any dry air in the column. it will be like this 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Some differences 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: it will be like this I like this example 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Some differences Yeah it is worse 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, mappy said: Regardless of how long it snows, the WAA thump will come in hot and heavy, 1-2" snow per hour rates for a time before the god awful flip to sleet. Sleet is stupid. Sleet beats rain. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: I like this example How about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sleet beats rain. to each their own 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM seems to be moving really slow on Sunday. at 18z precip isnt anywhere near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 sleet sucks, though i could do without power outages (though a little ice can be fun). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM seems to be moving really slow on Sunday. at 18z precip isnt anywhere near us Yeah it is moving like TT website 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 I for one will enjoy our 3 hours of snow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM seems to be moving really slow on Sunday. at 18z precip isnt anywhere near us So much for closing church Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I for one will enjoy our 3 hours of snow. Switchover at sunset.. can't get any better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: So much for closing church yea all my church friends are upset.....amazing how church staff dont want to be at church either lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll take the NAM... snow to ice to an hour or so of rain to dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM has precip in the DC area basically outta here by 06z monday (after only getting here just after 21z sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Switchover at sunset.. can't get any better yup, then 3 hours of fake freezing rain, then dryslot after a little rain. Meanwhile NAM gets zr all the way back to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'll take the NAM... snow to ice to an hour or so of rain to dry slot yeah, ice at 32F should pile up real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: yeah, ice at 32F should pile up real quick. Nice crunchy snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 lol the NAM gives me half an inch of snow and 8 tenths of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Lol NAM turns C VA into MD into an ice rink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: One small detail I've been wondering about seems to have appeared on the 0z Euro (at least). The annoying/helpful/disastrous northern stream shortwave makes a pretty good pass for the metro areas late on Monday. And it's strong obviously. Euro spits out some light snow with it. I think that's very plausible and could add C-1" later on Monday. Models are starting to pick up on the mid level warming so it’s offset this trend in terms of snowfall results but we’re finally actually getting the trend we want since 18z wrt the NS SW diving in behind and it’s corresponding interaction with our storm. 18z euro to 6z euro It was an incremental trend the last 2 runs. Results in a slightly weaker and further south h5 track initially. It’s not enough YET to change our fate, and it’s been offset by models starting to realize the warm layer issues…but if that trend were to continue it could lead to the chance for some snow with the h5 pass. It could also help with the WAA some if we continued to see this trend but we would need several more bumps and the improvement would likely only be incremental since that part is mostly baked in at this point because of how amplified and cut off the h5 is to our south and the lack of confluence over the top to resist the SE flow ahead of it. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM keeps that dry slot over WV (and out of western MD). I wouldn't be surprised if I mix in McHenry for a short period of time with the 850 winds blasting from the east before the winds shift back out of the NW at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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