Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Says jyo rises to 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Didn't see a reason why it changed so much. The upper levels weren't that much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 55 minutes ago, Ji said: 58 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 6z gfs says whomp Of course the first major change it makes is to remove 3 inches of snow That map looks wonky. This one doesn't look like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like the surface low is east of previous runs, especially north of DC. H5 however looks about the same looking on my phone. Maybe exact path at H5 is still "up in the air "?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty much every snow map looks about the same for mby so assuming some of this is sleet I think 4-6" out here is a reasonable first call No changes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Still a lot to figure out for those close to I-95 but a couple inches of snow is better than zero snow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Someone refresh my memory. We had an awful icestorm in... 2008? Had to be the worst since I have lived in DC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 V-Day 2007? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Someone refresh my memory. We had an awful icestorm in... 2008? Had to be the worst since I have lived in DC metro area. February 2007. Upper Montgomery County into SE Frederick and Carroll had an event in 2018 where 0.3" to 0.4" happened...pulled a bunch of meters off houses and caused fires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: February 2007. Upper Montgomery County into SE Frederick and Carroll had an event in 2018 where 0.3" to 0.4" happened...pulled a bunch of meters off houses and caused fires. Geez. Starting to think this may be a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: No changes Better counsel your buddy. Bad morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If you are traveling between DC and Richmond tomorrow, be sure to use 95. It’s faster in these situations 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Better counsel your buddy. Bad morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs has the best surface low pass yet and somehow it dropped western snow totals. Maybe it's starting to get a better idea about upper air temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs has the best surface low pass yet and somehow it dropped western snow totals. Maybe it's starting to get a better idea about upper air temps. H5 pass didn’t change much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you are traveling between DC and Richmond tomorrow, be sure to use 95. It’s faster in these situations That’s literally the best one I may have ever seen on this board lmfao.. Surface wise I thought the GFS produced a much better track, as it finally skirts under DC just south. I would gamble heavy if that came to fruition although I’d like to see h5 look just a tick better if I’m in DC proper and that area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Gfs has the best surface low pass yet and somehow it dropped western snow totals. Maybe it's starting to get a better idea about upper air temps. My method for snowfall anticipation is to take the precip amount an multiply by 12. Works occasionally. The hell with models and their data and physics and stuff 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The globals have locked into the evolution and path of the storm, now it’s time for the meso’s and the finer details. The 6z NAM in particular, but also the ICON and GFS, are recognizing that the cold air isn’t going to be scoured out very fast particularly in the western burbs, so it looks like we may be dealing with more of a snow to ice regime than snow to rain. Could make this storm impact worse than last Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 WB 6Z EURO 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Do you have the Kuchera map? Curios how the far western areas do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Do you have the Kuchera map? Curios how the far western areas do. Maybe a bit more after this with upslope continuing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: Didn't see a reason why it changed so much. The upper levels weren't that much different A bunch of people have said this but with the track and vigor of this low, there is no stopping a mid level destruction from rushing in anywhere near or east of the low. Unforgiving setup in the mids. My 3-4" call for my yard is predicated on 2-3 hours of mod/hvy snowfall tops before other, less enjoyable stuff happens. I may not get that much but it is the heart of cold season and conditions leading in are good. We'll see 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Am I wrong in thinking that snow totals are overdone in the Piedmont here? I've seen this kind of thing plenty of times in my 11 years in Charlottesville and I have to imagine that a lot more of that liquid is gonna be sleet and FRZ than what the Euro is showing. The Valley and I-81 are gonna be blitzed but I have this feeling that it will be 28-29F at the surface just east of the Blue Ridge but pelting sleet and then pouring freezing rain come midnight... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A bunch of people have said this but with the track and vigor of this low, there is no stopping a mid level destruction from rushing in anywhere near or east of the low. Unforgiving setup in the mids. My 3-4" call for my yard is predicated on 2-3 hours of mod/hvy snowfall tops before other, less enjoyable stuff happens. I may not get that much but it is the heart of cold season and conditions leading in are good. We'll see I think we get one of those "walls of snow" that comes in from the SW hot and heavy... then we see how long we can hold on before the pingers start. If we can get the snow in here by let's say 19z... and get 4 to 6 hours of heavy snowfall... I would take that before we mix. Also seems that the dry slot will be moving through our area too on most models... so hopefully by the time we get above freezing its just some light rain and the dry slot ends our precip so we can at least enjoy the snow and ice that is left lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Am I wrong in thinking that snow totals are overdone in the Piedmont here? I've seen this kind of thing plenty of times in my 11 years in Charlottesville and I have to imagine that a lot more of that liquid is gonna be sleet and FRZ than what the Euro is showing. I-81 is gonna be blitzed but I have this feeling that it will be 28-29F at the surface but pelting sleet and then pouring freezing rain come midnight... The 10:1 snow maps suck in situations where there is warming aloft/mixing. The Kuchera map posted above is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Am I wrong in thinking that snow totals are overdone in the Piedmont here? I've seen this kind of thing plenty of times in my 11 years in Charlottesville and I have to imagine that a lot more of that liquid is gonna be sleet and FRZ than what the Euro is showing. The Valley and I-81 are gonna be blitzed but I have this feeling that it will be 28-29F at the surface just east of the Blue Ridge but pelting sleet and then pouring freezing rain come midnight... We definitely go above freezing upstairs between 7pm and 1 am on Mon. Exactly when your location loses the mid levels will determine the exact snow amounts. That being said, this is a quick hitter, with most precipitation out of here by 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Regardless of how long it snows, the WAA thump will come in hot and heavy, 1-2" snow per hour rates for a time before the god awful flip to sleet. Sleet is stupid. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is precip amounts in 6 hour increments to try to show the point that after 1am it is winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS mixes down some strong wind gusts as the LL jet passes over Sunday night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hate how on the cusp my area is for this one. 4-8” before a flip seems like a solid consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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