Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 WB 6Z EURO 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Do you have the Kuchera map? Curios how the far western areas do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Do you have the Kuchera map? Curios how the far western areas do. Maybe a bit more after this with upslope continuing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: Didn't see a reason why it changed so much. The upper levels weren't that much different A bunch of people have said this but with the track and vigor of this low, there is no stopping a mid level destruction from rushing in anywhere near or east of the low. Unforgiving setup in the mids. My 3-4" call for my yard is predicated on 2-3 hours of mod/hvy snowfall tops before other, less enjoyable stuff happens. I may not get that much but it is the heart of cold season and conditions leading in are good. We'll see 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Am I wrong in thinking that snow totals are overdone in the Piedmont here? I've seen this kind of thing plenty of times in my 11 years in Charlottesville and I have to imagine that a lot more of that liquid is gonna be sleet and FRZ than what the Euro is showing. The Valley and I-81 are gonna be blitzed but I have this feeling that it will be 28-29F at the surface just east of the Blue Ridge but pelting sleet and then pouring freezing rain come midnight... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A bunch of people have said this but with the track and vigor of this low, there is no stopping a mid level destruction from rushing in anywhere near or east of the low. Unforgiving setup in the mids. My 3-4" call for my yard is predicated on 2-3 hours of mod/hvy snowfall tops before other, less enjoyable stuff happens. I may not get that much but it is the heart of cold season and conditions leading in are good. We'll see I think we get one of those "walls of snow" that comes in from the SW hot and heavy... then we see how long we can hold on before the pingers start. If we can get the snow in here by let's say 19z... and get 4 to 6 hours of heavy snowfall... I would take that before we mix. Also seems that the dry slot will be moving through our area too on most models... so hopefully by the time we get above freezing its just some light rain and the dry slot ends our precip so we can at least enjoy the snow and ice that is left lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Am I wrong in thinking that snow totals are overdone in the Piedmont here? I've seen this kind of thing plenty of times in my 11 years in Charlottesville and I have to imagine that a lot more of that liquid is gonna be sleet and FRZ than what the Euro is showing. I-81 is gonna be blitzed but I have this feeling that it will be 28-29F at the surface but pelting sleet and then pouring freezing rain come midnight... The 10:1 snow maps suck in situations where there is warming aloft/mixing. The Kuchera map posted above is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Am I wrong in thinking that snow totals are overdone in the Piedmont here? I've seen this kind of thing plenty of times in my 11 years in Charlottesville and I have to imagine that a lot more of that liquid is gonna be sleet and FRZ than what the Euro is showing. The Valley and I-81 are gonna be blitzed but I have this feeling that it will be 28-29F at the surface just east of the Blue Ridge but pelting sleet and then pouring freezing rain come midnight... We definitely go above freezing upstairs between 7pm and 1 am on Mon. Exactly when your location loses the mid levels will determine the exact snow amounts. That being said, this is a quick hitter, with most precipitation out of here by 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Regardless of how long it snows, the WAA thump will come in hot and heavy, 1-2" snow per hour rates for a time before the god awful flip to sleet. Sleet is stupid. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is precip amounts in 6 hour increments to try to show the point that after 1am it is winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS mixes down some strong wind gusts as the LL jet passes over Sunday night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hate how on the cusp my area is for this one. 4-8” before a flip seems like a solid consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, yoda said: I think we get one of those "walls of snow" that comes in from the SW hot and heavy... then we see how long we can hold on before the pingers start. If we can get the snow in here by let's say 19z... and get 4 to 6 hours of heavy snowfall... I would take that before we mix. Also seems that the dry slot will be moving through our area too on most models... so hopefully by the time we get above freezing its just some light rain and the dry slot ends our precip so we can at least enjoy the snow and ice that is left lol Exactly. While this storm has some unique and interesting features, it's still a very typical setup and outcome for the track. Prob 50% or more (stat guys can check) of all our measurable snowfalls are mixed around the cities and burbs. We do it often and at times we do it really well. If climo really takes over, not much above freezing rain is going to fall. I've been thinking that's how it's going to play out but models had too much spread to discuss. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Knew when I woke up and there were only 4 more pages of content that 00z and 6z weren’t that great. Still 48 hours away. Let’s see if we’ve got any last minute magic in us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS mixes down some strong wind gusts as the LL jet passes over Sunday night. White out conditions!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: Didn't see a reason why it changed so much. The upper levels weren't that much different Synoptically it’s the same. It’s simply “seeing” the mid level warm layer now as we get closer. We knew this was a risk with that screaming SE flow. Been talking about it for days. The Gfs just suddenly sees it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS mixes down some strong wind gusts as the LL jet passes over Sunday night. Can’t wait to have 45-50mph winds whipping sleet pellets like bullets at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS mixes down some strong wind gusts as the LL jet passes over Sunday night. LWX disco mentions the wind 'threat' too with gusts approaching 50 mph as a possibility. I'd bet that map is a bit overdone but it should be pretty gusty Sunday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Synoptically it’s the same. It’s simply “seeing” the mid level warm layer now as we get closer. We knew this was a risk with that screaming SE flow. Been talking about it for days. The Gfs just suddenly sees it. I can't see how those totals stay even at these levels. The blower is going to be on 'HI' and destroy the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hopefully the rain washes the snow off the driveway and sidewalks before it departs. Shoveling 2 inches of frozen, moisture-laden slush really sucks. Expecting 1 inch with rain here. Looks like 15"+ in NH, but I am stuck here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not sure if its been mentioned, but something brought to my attention on twitter is the dry air ahead of the WAA and how quickly it erodes as precip moves in. so... yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Not sure if its been mentioned, but something brought to my attention on twitter is the dry air ahead of the WAA and how quickly it erodes as precip moves in. so... yay. Hopefully the rates materialize. These storms are the worst when you need big snow rates up front and it's virga and spotty showers for hours instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Not sure if its been mentioned, but something brought to my attention on twitter is the dry air ahead of the WAA and how quickly it erodes as precip moves in. so... yay. Eh...I don't think that's as big a deal as it might seem. That WAA is fierce. The radar will probably get the DC snow hole look by like 15-16z on Sunday and it will start snowing on time around 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 One small detail I've been wondering about seems to have appeared on the 0z Euro (at least). The annoying/helpful/disastrous northern stream shortwave makes a pretty good pass for the metro areas late on Monday. And it's strong obviously. Euro spits out some light snow with it. I think that's very plausible and could add C-1" later on Monday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: One small detail I've been wondering about seems to have appeared on the 0z Euro (at least). The annoying/helpful/disastrous northern stream shortwave makes a pretty good pass for the metro areas late on Monday. And it's strong obviously. Euro spits out some light snow with it. I think that's very plausible and could add C-1" later on Monday. Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Not sure if its been mentioned, but something brought to my attention on twitter is the dry air ahead of the WAA and how quickly it erodes as precip moves in. so... yay. The placement of the high just doesn’t seem ideal. Surface winds look they’re out of the east by the time the precip arrives and the 850 layer looks potent out of the se. I’m assuming it’ll be a battleground for a few hours, though I guess a quicker arrival or slower departing high could help with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, mappy said: Regardless of how long it snows, the WAA thump will come in hot and heavy, 1-2" snow per hour rates for a time before the god awful flip to sleet. Sleet is stupid. Especially when you have to get rid of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 As we get closer to the event, the hi-res models will better capture how quickly the mid and low levels will warm on the screaming ESE flow and the snow and ice totals will come down in line with that. We all knew it was inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Hopefully the rates materialize. These storms are the worst when you need big snow rates up front and it's virga and spotty showers for hours instead. these storms are the worst as it is. sleet really is the devil, but then throwing in virga at the beginning. blah. 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Eh...I don't think that's as big a deal as it might seem. That WAA is fierce. The radar will probably get the DC snow hole look by like 15-16z on Sunday and it will start snowing on time around 18z. thank you for talking me off my ledge. I have been cursed this year with virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: these storms are the worst as it is. sleet really is the devil, but then throwing in virga at the beginning. blah. thank you for talking me off my ledge. I have been cursed this year with virga Hopefully we will avoid most virga since this is a big storm blasting through here quickly. It's not a slider south of us where we are on the northern edge. Won't be much time for virga since the minute the precip starts we will be able to see the back edge on radar already. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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