yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 MDZ003-004-VAZ031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ052-053-142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Berkeley-Jefferson- 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hours late Sunday into Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, yoda said: ...and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. . Surprised they didn't mention power outage with those numbers, considering the recent difficulties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 LWX morning AFD .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A dry night with some clearing as high pressure builds a bit more strongly to the south Saturday night will help allow temps to drop into the single digits in the cold spots and the teens for most everyone else, with many locales likely to see their coldest night for nearly 3 years. Rapidly moving and strengthening low pressure then becomes the main focus. The system will be moving at a fairly good clip, but the intense forcing as the warm advection is forced quickly over the departing cold air mass will mean business. The track of the low will ultimately be key as far as how far west the mixing and rain gets, and there remains some model uncertainty between the various suites, but are confident enough that our western half will see warning level snow such that, after collaboration with neighbors and WPC, it was decided to issue winter storm watches. This does not rule out winter storm warning criteria conditions further east, but confidence just isn't there especially given the long lead. However, at this time the most likely scenario is a heavy burst of snow on the front end for most as the storm moves into the region Sunday afternoon, following by a mix to ice during the evening and plain rain possibly for areas near and east of I-95. At this time icing is not expected to reach our far western zones, where the heaviest snow of a foot or more is possible. Where the snow and ice do change to rain, heavy rain will possibly result in minor flooding. Winds may also be quite gusty in those locations east of the low as it passes, and for all areas right after the low passes, with gusts possibly approaching 50 mph. Will be watching forecast trends for potential wind advisories. It must be noted that even areas which don't see warning level snow have the potential for a brief burst of very heavy snow before the changeover occurs, with rates possibly approaching those seen on January 3rd south of DC for a time. This could make travel very difficult during that time, most likely occurring late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The low looks likely to move fast enough such that heavier precip is moving out by late Sunday night, but some wraparound rain/snow is possible. Additional accumulations on the back side look minor, however. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A powerful low pressure system over southeast Pennsylvania will move quickly northeastward across New England Monday and then into the eastern Canadian Maritimes Monday night. Residual snow showers will be expected across our mountains in the west and along the Mason- Dixon region to as far south as northern suburbs of Washington D.C. Strong northwest winds will become westerly during the day as well before the low departs. Light additional snow accumulations possible Monday. Colder temperatures will set up shop as well. There remains the possibility that additional headlines may be needed for upslope snow showers on the back side of the departing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That’s a large swath of the eastern US facing a potential major icestorm. Don’t recall many ice storms impacting such a large area. Curious if these ice totals continue to go higher with later model guidance today. Some areas are going to get dumped on with heavy snow followed by a sleet bomb and finally freezing rain. It’s going to suck to have to shovel or plow this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: That’s a large swath of the eastern US facing a potential major icestorm. Don’t recall many ice storms impacting such a large area. Curious if these ice totals continue to go higher with later model guidance today. Some areas are going to get dumped on with heavy snow followed by a sleet bomb and finally freezing rain. It’s going to suck to have to shovel or plow this crap. Need the snow sleet ZR glop removed? Just call The Jebman! Efficient, fast snow removal since 1976-77. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 06z ICON would be a nightmare for DC... starts out in low/mid 20s for snow around 21z. Stays below freezing until around 04z or so. Quick spike to mid 30s or so for a few hours of light rain... then back to below freezing by 07z/08z. Precip is still around till just after 12z, so would precip would change back to either light snow or light freezing rain on top of what has melted. 32 degree line briefly gets to around BR for about 3 hours max... then rushes back eastward. BR and west would stay all frozen... BR to I95 would be a mess of snow to ice to light rain then back to some light ice/snow as the system occludes/pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs is a disaster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z gfs says whomp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 lol 06z GFS drops a mini ice storm for DC metro... 0.3" to 0.5"... really weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z gfs says whomp Of course the first major change it makes is to remove 3 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 models just suck lol oh boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Says jyo rises to 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Didn't see a reason why it changed so much. The upper levels weren't that much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 55 minutes ago, Ji said: 58 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 6z gfs says whomp Of course the first major change it makes is to remove 3 inches of snow That map looks wonky. This one doesn't look like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like the surface low is east of previous runs, especially north of DC. H5 however looks about the same looking on my phone. Maybe exact path at H5 is still "up in the air "?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty much every snow map looks about the same for mby so assuming some of this is sleet I think 4-6" out here is a reasonable first call No changes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Still a lot to figure out for those close to I-95 but a couple inches of snow is better than zero snow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Someone refresh my memory. We had an awful icestorm in... 2008? Had to be the worst since I have lived in DC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 V-Day 2007? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Someone refresh my memory. We had an awful icestorm in... 2008? Had to be the worst since I have lived in DC metro area. February 2007. Upper Montgomery County into SE Frederick and Carroll had an event in 2018 where 0.3" to 0.4" happened...pulled a bunch of meters off houses and caused fires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: February 2007. Upper Montgomery County into SE Frederick and Carroll had an event in 2018 where 0.3" to 0.4" happened...pulled a bunch of meters off houses and caused fires. Geez. Starting to think this may be a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: No changes Better counsel your buddy. Bad morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If you are traveling between DC and Richmond tomorrow, be sure to use 95. It’s faster in these situations 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Better counsel your buddy. Bad morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs has the best surface low pass yet and somehow it dropped western snow totals. Maybe it's starting to get a better idea about upper air temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs has the best surface low pass yet and somehow it dropped western snow totals. Maybe it's starting to get a better idea about upper air temps. H5 pass didn’t change much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you are traveling between DC and Richmond tomorrow, be sure to use 95. It’s faster in these situations That’s literally the best one I may have ever seen on this board lmfao.. Surface wise I thought the GFS produced a much better track, as it finally skirts under DC just south. I would gamble heavy if that came to fruition although I’d like to see h5 look just a tick better if I’m in DC proper and that area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Gfs has the best surface low pass yet and somehow it dropped western snow totals. Maybe it's starting to get a better idea about upper air temps. My method for snowfall anticipation is to take the precip amount an multiply by 12. Works occasionally. The hell with models and their data and physics and stuff 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The globals have locked into the evolution and path of the storm, now it’s time for the meso’s and the finer details. The 6z NAM in particular, but also the ICON and GFS, are recognizing that the cold air isn’t going to be scoured out very fast particularly in the western burbs, so it looks like we may be dealing with more of a snow to ice regime than snow to rain. Could make this storm impact worse than last Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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