LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ji said: 23 minutes ago, Jebman said: See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! 0 chance i get 10 Zero chance might be too much. I think we have a slight chance, but low indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Zero chance might be too much. I think we have a slight chance, but low indeed He should just put a 6-11” zone in between. Would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Anybody have the Ukie? Seemed pretty consistent last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Anybody have the Ukie? Seemed pretty consistent last several runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS/UKIE combo would be nice here... 3-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: I realize this is a broad brush map for a large area, but if Garrett/Tucker/laurels jack, I'm probably not getting 6" The Alleghenies always jack in these storms, what does that have to do with you? They jacked even when we got 3ft back in '16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro is pretty gross for the coastal plain. Still I probably get 2-4" on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like 2-4... maybe 3-5 DC metro and westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, mattskiva said: The Alleghenies always jack in these storms, what does that have to do with you? They jacked even when we got 3ft back in '16. The snowier solutions for me jack east of there. Winchester/Martinsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Euro is pretty gross for the coastal plain. Still I probably get 2-4" on the front. 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 2-4... maybe 3-5 DC metro and westward PW snow map has 4" at DCA... fine with me. 6" line is just east of the BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 WB 0z models 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 All the 0Z suite give Loudoun 6"+, except the GEM which has a stupid bias. If those numbers are right, I'll take that. Of course some of that is probably sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems solid. I’ll take my 8-12” and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah yeah... but 06z NAM is lights out for the I95 to I81 corridor... bad ice storm including EZF and DCA and IAD and BWI... into most of C VA into N VA and a majority of MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: Seems solid. I’ll take my 8-12” and run. Clueless - See what I have been tellin you all along! You get 7 to 10 inches from this! You'll see some mix, but you will SCORE with those orographics! You got elevation! You will have local maxima as well, local lollis of perhaps 11-12 inches. Ji is in Leesburg, he will get demolished too! Any sleet you guys get will only strengthen the pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Yeah yeah... but 06z NAM is lights out for the I95 to I81 corridor... bad ice storm including EZF and DCA and IAD and BWI... into most of C VA into N VA and a majority of MD 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 MDZ001-501-502-VAZ025>030-503-504-507-508-WVZ050-051-055-501>506- 142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hours late Sunday into Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 MDZ003-004-VAZ031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ052-053-142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Berkeley-Jefferson- 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hours late Sunday into Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, yoda said: ...and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. . Surprised they didn't mention power outage with those numbers, considering the recent difficulties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 LWX morning AFD .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A dry night with some clearing as high pressure builds a bit more strongly to the south Saturday night will help allow temps to drop into the single digits in the cold spots and the teens for most everyone else, with many locales likely to see their coldest night for nearly 3 years. Rapidly moving and strengthening low pressure then becomes the main focus. The system will be moving at a fairly good clip, but the intense forcing as the warm advection is forced quickly over the departing cold air mass will mean business. The track of the low will ultimately be key as far as how far west the mixing and rain gets, and there remains some model uncertainty between the various suites, but are confident enough that our western half will see warning level snow such that, after collaboration with neighbors and WPC, it was decided to issue winter storm watches. This does not rule out winter storm warning criteria conditions further east, but confidence just isn't there especially given the long lead. However, at this time the most likely scenario is a heavy burst of snow on the front end for most as the storm moves into the region Sunday afternoon, following by a mix to ice during the evening and plain rain possibly for areas near and east of I-95. At this time icing is not expected to reach our far western zones, where the heaviest snow of a foot or more is possible. Where the snow and ice do change to rain, heavy rain will possibly result in minor flooding. Winds may also be quite gusty in those locations east of the low as it passes, and for all areas right after the low passes, with gusts possibly approaching 50 mph. Will be watching forecast trends for potential wind advisories. It must be noted that even areas which don't see warning level snow have the potential for a brief burst of very heavy snow before the changeover occurs, with rates possibly approaching those seen on January 3rd south of DC for a time. This could make travel very difficult during that time, most likely occurring late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The low looks likely to move fast enough such that heavier precip is moving out by late Sunday night, but some wraparound rain/snow is possible. Additional accumulations on the back side look minor, however. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A powerful low pressure system over southeast Pennsylvania will move quickly northeastward across New England Monday and then into the eastern Canadian Maritimes Monday night. Residual snow showers will be expected across our mountains in the west and along the Mason- Dixon region to as far south as northern suburbs of Washington D.C. Strong northwest winds will become westerly during the day as well before the low departs. Light additional snow accumulations possible Monday. Colder temperatures will set up shop as well. There remains the possibility that additional headlines may be needed for upslope snow showers on the back side of the departing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That’s a large swath of the eastern US facing a potential major icestorm. Don’t recall many ice storms impacting such a large area. Curious if these ice totals continue to go higher with later model guidance today. Some areas are going to get dumped on with heavy snow followed by a sleet bomb and finally freezing rain. It’s going to suck to have to shovel or plow this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: That’s a large swath of the eastern US facing a potential major icestorm. Don’t recall many ice storms impacting such a large area. Curious if these ice totals continue to go higher with later model guidance today. Some areas are going to get dumped on with heavy snow followed by a sleet bomb and finally freezing rain. It’s going to suck to have to shovel or plow this crap. Need the snow sleet ZR glop removed? Just call The Jebman! Efficient, fast snow removal since 1976-77. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 06z ICON would be a nightmare for DC... starts out in low/mid 20s for snow around 21z. Stays below freezing until around 04z or so. Quick spike to mid 30s or so for a few hours of light rain... then back to below freezing by 07z/08z. Precip is still around till just after 12z, so would precip would change back to either light snow or light freezing rain on top of what has melted. 32 degree line briefly gets to around BR for about 3 hours max... then rushes back eastward. BR and west would stay all frozen... BR to I95 would be a mess of snow to ice to light rain then back to some light ice/snow as the system occludes/pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs is a disaster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z gfs says whomp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 lol 06z GFS drops a mini ice storm for DC metro... 0.3" to 0.5"... really weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z gfs says whomp Of course the first major change it makes is to remove 3 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 models just suck lol oh boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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